Are we out of the woods yet?

The following assumption is quite simple. A close on the monthly chart on any investment instrument is hugely important, and the one we are going to have for BTCUSD in August could potentially dictate the upcomming macro picture.
After the peak in 2017, the market had simmilar reaction in which price fell relatively sharp, followed by an unsuccessfull rebound to prior ATHs.

Last cycle macro stages (*on price alone*) :

• BTC prints an ATH fueled by some sort of impulse move.
  
• Fails to sustain the price at these levels.
  
• Breaks to the downside, below the fast MA
  
• Rebounds just slightly above the fast MA - not enough buying pressure
  
• Falls around 60% from the rebound to the fast MA - creates a bottom (and a solid entry on next cycle.)
  

On the chart, I've plotted what I am seeing currently - we had the top at ~64K, followed by drop below the fast MA, and we are currently trying to rebound for potentially another drop lower - coincidently, if we drop around 60% once more, it seems to be in a very logical spot (where prior ATH from 2017 and the last monthly candle of 2020 - and the first candle after the BO - meet. (~$18.5K)

Of course, this does not mean we are going down, but there seem to be logical reasons for a further drop - and if we dont close this monthly candle on a strong bullish note, I think having a bearish bias would pay off better, and easier.

Comment:

So far so good, but I don't think that we are in a buying opportunity no more.
Expecting lower prices still.

Trade closed: target reached:

Short targets reached (for swing) on 1/06/22.
Buy area gave around 40% from trough to peak;