OK gang. It's been a while. I've been tracking BTC, and learning other tools like Gann.
Anyhow, I will try and not bore you.
Since $20k, I've plotted an ABC pattern. If I carefully count the waves. I see a wave A, B and we are still forming C. C wave is made up of a sub-level impulse wave (if you zoomed in, the entire C wave would be an impulse) ... and in this case 1 down, 2 up, 3 down (large), 4 up, 5 down. After completion of the B wave in July 2018, I count that we've done 1, 2, 3 and have probably finished 4 of the C impulse wave. I suspect we are in the 5th wave of the impulse, and that will likely complete wave C, and the overall correction for BTC. This is represented on my chart as the bold blue wave which started in July 2018.
It's hard to say where wave C will end. There's a few scenarios, but what I'm looking at is the bears seem to have trouble taking it down. Don't get me wrong, there was a good attempt on the weekend, and even last night ... nice wick down, but bulls seemed to pull it back up. So at this stage I'm wondering if there will be much steam to this last wave down. Believe me, I am cautious, especially after going from 6500 to 3200 and cutting through MAJOR support like nothing ... that one blew my socks off!
So, let's say, I'm cautiously anticipating a bottom of 2980. If that fails, I see 2400, 1800, 1300, and finally 560 to 1300 range as targets. Yes, all the way down to 560 ... I hate to say it, but BTC did surprised me on that last major drop ... and so technically we should keep our minds open. There's even a technical argument for as low as 160, God forbid! Let me explain where most of these supports come from.
-2980, back in 2017 there was a major wick on Sep 15. The bottom of that wick would be where some lucky people bought and they'll have a hard time letting go of their "cheap" BTC.
- 2400, back on 25 July 2017 another wick down, a little minor compared to Sep 15th, but it's there. Also note during that time the trade range 1800 to 3000, if you switch on the volume profile, you will see huge volume in this range ... LOTS of historical activity. Average is probably around 2400.
- 1800, comes from 17 July 2017, another good wick, and the bottom of this trade range where we had tonnes of trade volume. This represents a major group of investors, it will be hard to shake them out, so 1800 becomes a strong support in my opinion.
- 1300 is the top formed on 10 Mar 2017 ... this is a cut off point for me, and represents the previous round of investors. In fact there was a long period from Aug 2016 to Mar 2017 where the trade range was 560 to 1300 ... so if it breaks 1300, we start chewing into the liquidity of this group of investors. Also note, those who follow hyperwave theory ... their target is 1000 ... I actually calculate it as 1100 - 1200.
- 162 ... where the heck does this come from????? 18 Aug 2015 ... this is what we call the CYCLE WAVE 4 bottom, and is statistically a target for major corrections. It's scary yes, but it shouldn't be ignored. I don't think we are going to go there, and certainly it won't happen in a few months, even if it does, I would think it would take more than a year or two to break through the major support above it.
Perhaps I've shared too much ... and caused confusion. But read it, absorb it, and ask questions, I will try and answer!
My thoughts are, we have a high chance of forming a double bottom or maybe a bit lower to a major support of 2980. Possible strategy is to ladder in buys in the range 2980 - 3200 and be prepared to exit if we have confirmation below 2980 (try and avoid getting stopped by stupid wicks ... probably the daily close is something good to watch, but have your limits in place to protect). If we break 2980 ... I'm afraid it gets really ugly (as if it isn't already).
Ok ... here's one for the bulls ... could 3100 to 3200 formed on the 14 of Dec 2018 be the bottom? Possibly. The bears will try and take it down again, they are trying right now. Finex shorts volume is LOW, and if they re-enter and form momentum, the question will be how low can they take it. If there is belief in BTC, buyers will show up and protect that previous bottom. I do expect a spring test ... and that would take us to the 2980 to 3200 range ... for me that is pretty bullish ... we could see good volume show up in that range and once accumulation is done and people are less willing to sell BTC ... we would have a new dawn.
A few other things to note. Around Feb 12th, the ichi cloud has a twist. Typically this signifies a bottom, a top and a major change in direction. Could it signify a bottom? As in we hit 2980 around that time? The SolidX ETF application deadline would be a little more than a week away at that point ... will positive news come up, and stop the correction once and for all?
Also note the BAKKT target date (this is not a legal deadline) ... now moved to "Spring of 2019" ... will there be positive news there, to further fuel the bull cycle???
I see a few stars lining up, I hope I'm right.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
For educational purposes only ... do not use this for investment/trading/financial decisions.
Anyhow, I will try and not bore you.
Since $20k, I've plotted an ABC pattern. If I carefully count the waves. I see a wave A, B and we are still forming C. C wave is made up of a sub-level impulse wave (if you zoomed in, the entire C wave would be an impulse) ... and in this case 1 down, 2 up, 3 down (large), 4 up, 5 down. After completion of the B wave in July 2018, I count that we've done 1, 2, 3 and have probably finished 4 of the C impulse wave. I suspect we are in the 5th wave of the impulse, and that will likely complete wave C, and the overall correction for BTC. This is represented on my chart as the bold blue wave which started in July 2018.
It's hard to say where wave C will end. There's a few scenarios, but what I'm looking at is the bears seem to have trouble taking it down. Don't get me wrong, there was a good attempt on the weekend, and even last night ... nice wick down, but bulls seemed to pull it back up. So at this stage I'm wondering if there will be much steam to this last wave down. Believe me, I am cautious, especially after going from 6500 to 3200 and cutting through MAJOR support like nothing ... that one blew my socks off!
So, let's say, I'm cautiously anticipating a bottom of 2980. If that fails, I see 2400, 1800, 1300, and finally 560 to 1300 range as targets. Yes, all the way down to 560 ... I hate to say it, but BTC did surprised me on that last major drop ... and so technically we should keep our minds open. There's even a technical argument for as low as 160, God forbid! Let me explain where most of these supports come from.
-2980, back in 2017 there was a major wick on Sep 15. The bottom of that wick would be where some lucky people bought and they'll have a hard time letting go of their "cheap" BTC.
- 2400, back on 25 July 2017 another wick down, a little minor compared to Sep 15th, but it's there. Also note during that time the trade range 1800 to 3000, if you switch on the volume profile, you will see huge volume in this range ... LOTS of historical activity. Average is probably around 2400.
- 1800, comes from 17 July 2017, another good wick, and the bottom of this trade range where we had tonnes of trade volume. This represents a major group of investors, it will be hard to shake them out, so 1800 becomes a strong support in my opinion.
- 1300 is the top formed on 10 Mar 2017 ... this is a cut off point for me, and represents the previous round of investors. In fact there was a long period from Aug 2016 to Mar 2017 where the trade range was 560 to 1300 ... so if it breaks 1300, we start chewing into the liquidity of this group of investors. Also note, those who follow hyperwave theory ... their target is 1000 ... I actually calculate it as 1100 - 1200.
- 162 ... where the heck does this come from????? 18 Aug 2015 ... this is what we call the CYCLE WAVE 4 bottom, and is statistically a target for major corrections. It's scary yes, but it shouldn't be ignored. I don't think we are going to go there, and certainly it won't happen in a few months, even if it does, I would think it would take more than a year or two to break through the major support above it.
Perhaps I've shared too much ... and caused confusion. But read it, absorb it, and ask questions, I will try and answer!
My thoughts are, we have a high chance of forming a double bottom or maybe a bit lower to a major support of 2980. Possible strategy is to ladder in buys in the range 2980 - 3200 and be prepared to exit if we have confirmation below 2980 (try and avoid getting stopped by stupid wicks ... probably the daily close is something good to watch, but have your limits in place to protect). If we break 2980 ... I'm afraid it gets really ugly (as if it isn't already).
Ok ... here's one for the bulls ... could 3100 to 3200 formed on the 14 of Dec 2018 be the bottom? Possibly. The bears will try and take it down again, they are trying right now. Finex shorts volume is LOW, and if they re-enter and form momentum, the question will be how low can they take it. If there is belief in BTC, buyers will show up and protect that previous bottom. I do expect a spring test ... and that would take us to the 2980 to 3200 range ... for me that is pretty bullish ... we could see good volume show up in that range and once accumulation is done and people are less willing to sell BTC ... we would have a new dawn.
A few other things to note. Around Feb 12th, the ichi cloud has a twist. Typically this signifies a bottom, a top and a major change in direction. Could it signify a bottom? As in we hit 2980 around that time? The SolidX ETF application deadline would be a little more than a week away at that point ... will positive news come up, and stop the correction once and for all?
Also note the BAKKT target date (this is not a legal deadline) ... now moved to "Spring of 2019" ... will there be positive news there, to further fuel the bull cycle???
I see a few stars lining up, I hope I'm right.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
For educational purposes only ... do not use this for investment/trading/financial decisions.