Bitcoin, Triangles, a flagpole, and Stock to flow
TLDR
Don't overthink things. Stock to flow gives you a average price to target, and triangles are easy to spot and trade for targeting. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
Introduction
One of the most important things I have picked up on my relatively short trading career (about 5 years) is to have faith in the long term trading patterns. Long term trading patterns can help calm your mind and help you 360 degree set a trade with entries and stops and take profits that you can just fire and forget until your alerts tell you have taken profit or been stopped out. Due to the learning curve a lot of my technical analysis was better than my ability to hold a trade through without removing my stops, taking profits early, adding to my position when I should have been closing, so forth and so on.
So this post will deal with the humble triangle
Analysis
The current patterns of interest are the purple symmetrical triangle which is occurring at the support of the orange ascending triangle. Triangles in themselves are one of the easiest patterns to recognize but some of the worst when it comes to full performance to target, throwbacks, and fakeouts. So, in general, the larger the pattern, the better, the more divergences you have to back up your bullish or bearish bias the better, and the clearer the fundamental case, the better.
To back up our humble triangle we have hidden bullish divergence on the Stochastic and the RSI. Very simple and powerful indicators when used on the weekly timeframe to verify patterns.
To further support our bullish bias is the stock to flow, which has acted as a leading indicator for bitcoins average price for the whole time the indicator has been in play after its creation.
Targeting
There are several ways to do target setting on a triangle. The main one would be to take the height of the uptrend, clone it, then move it to the point of break out. Now, with triangles being one of the worst with reaching full target that is perhaps not the best way to go about things unless you are very good with training your stops.
As the chart below shows with the blue triangle, taking a high and low fib retracement and looking at the positive extensions can do a fairly good job of predicting local highs. Both the 1.414 and 1.618 were areas where price retraced. Going forward off of that draw, a pause at the 2 and 2.618 levels would be very predictable, reliable and technical.
The chart below shows two different set of fibs. The bold black fibs are drawn off the ascending triangle and the dark purple fibs are based off of a fib extension treating the move as a flagpole and continuation pattern, like an Elliot wave 1 and 2. Where it appears both fibs are in agreement is an area we would suspect to see a stall with a future continuation pattern to develop.
Fundamental Analysis
This is a hypothesis I don't have time to fully flesh out here, but for a long time people have been hoping for rotation. A common rotation people hope to play is the roation out of equities into commodities. That was a good play in the early 2000 and many people are hoping for it to be a good play again. Now, I am hoping for a great rotation this time around out of equites and into crypto instead of commodities.
And I think the charts support my notion of money rotating out of equities into crypto.
Conclusion
The stops are easy enough to set for even a new trader that has swung by investopedia.com or Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com and read the basic articles on triangles and flagpoles. The rotation thesis is likewise easy to understand, even if you don't agree with it, as is the concept behind the stock to flow model, which I did not dive into. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
Don't overthink things. Stock to flow gives you a average price to target, and triangles are easy to spot and trade for targeting. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
Introduction
One of the most important things I have picked up on my relatively short trading career (about 5 years) is to have faith in the long term trading patterns. Long term trading patterns can help calm your mind and help you 360 degree set a trade with entries and stops and take profits that you can just fire and forget until your alerts tell you have taken profit or been stopped out. Due to the learning curve a lot of my technical analysis was better than my ability to hold a trade through without removing my stops, taking profits early, adding to my position when I should have been closing, so forth and so on.
So this post will deal with the humble triangle
Analysis
The current patterns of interest are the purple symmetrical triangle which is occurring at the support of the orange ascending triangle. Triangles in themselves are one of the easiest patterns to recognize but some of the worst when it comes to full performance to target, throwbacks, and fakeouts. So, in general, the larger the pattern, the better, the more divergences you have to back up your bullish or bearish bias the better, and the clearer the fundamental case, the better.
To back up our humble triangle we have hidden bullish divergence on the Stochastic and the RSI. Very simple and powerful indicators when used on the weekly timeframe to verify patterns.
To further support our bullish bias is the stock to flow, which has acted as a leading indicator for bitcoins average price for the whole time the indicator has been in play after its creation.
Targeting
There are several ways to do target setting on a triangle. The main one would be to take the height of the uptrend, clone it, then move it to the point of break out. Now, with triangles being one of the worst with reaching full target that is perhaps not the best way to go about things unless you are very good with training your stops.
As the chart below shows with the blue triangle, taking a high and low fib retracement and looking at the positive extensions can do a fairly good job of predicting local highs. Both the 1.414 and 1.618 were areas where price retraced. Going forward off of that draw, a pause at the 2 and 2.618 levels would be very predictable, reliable and technical.
The chart below shows two different set of fibs. The bold black fibs are drawn off the ascending triangle and the dark purple fibs are based off of a fib extension treating the move as a flagpole and continuation pattern, like an Elliot wave 1 and 2. Where it appears both fibs are in agreement is an area we would suspect to see a stall with a future continuation pattern to develop.
Fundamental Analysis
This is a hypothesis I don't have time to fully flesh out here, but for a long time people have been hoping for rotation. A common rotation people hope to play is the roation out of equities into commodities. That was a good play in the early 2000 and many people are hoping for it to be a good play again. Now, I am hoping for a great rotation this time around out of equites and into crypto instead of commodities.
And I think the charts support my notion of money rotating out of equities into crypto.
Conclusion
The stops are easy enough to set for even a new trader that has swung by investopedia.com or Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com and read the basic articles on triangles and flagpoles. The rotation thesis is likewise easy to understand, even if you don't agree with it, as is the concept behind the stock to flow model, which I did not dive into. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
Comment:
Bitcoins symmetrical triangle appears to be on its way to resolving bullishly and if we get the break out I forecast then we are looking at a new all time high.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
