If you zoom out, you can see
BTCUSD
is oscillating between roughly 30 and 60 since early 2021.
Despite all the negative macro, BTC remained extremely strong because adoption is inevitable. How likely do you think is that BTC or crypto in general just disappears?
While it's a self fulfilled prophecy, if BTC (and other cryptos) adoption continue to grows, then it carries intrinsic value. For this reason, I don't think you can compare the current drop to 2017 where crypto usage was lightyears from what it is today.
However, let's not ignore macro which is currently very shitty. Two big macro forces:
The negative trend pushes money away from risky, volatile investments, thus outside crypto (and even stocks, as you probably saw).
The positive pushes money toward crypto.
In the next months, I bet that a couple of states in the US will fight over being the "most crypto friendly state". I'm also pretty sure we're going to see adoption by more corporations, would it be just to speak to a specific audience (think
DOGEUSD
). Their logic is very simple, why should we not get access to that money some of our customers have?
I also think Covid restrictions will be lifted around end of Q1 2022 which will increase optimism and positivity.
To sum up:
A good trade right now is to buy below $40k and exit as we approach $60k.
My trade is to HODL way beyond $60k.
DYOR.
BTCUSD
is oscillating between roughly 30 and 60 since early 2021. Despite all the negative macro, BTC remained extremely strong because adoption is inevitable. How likely do you think is that BTC or crypto in general just disappears?
While it's a self fulfilled prophecy, if BTC (and other cryptos) adoption continue to grows, then it carries intrinsic value. For this reason, I don't think you can compare the current drop to 2017 where crypto usage was lightyears from what it is today.
However, let's not ignore macro which is currently very shitty. Two big macro forces:
- Potential war in Ukraine, the Fed that will raise interests later this year, and overall negative mood after two years of Covid bring things down.
- Crypto being adopted by corporations and countries (!) and basically becoming part of the landscape.
The negative trend pushes money away from risky, volatile investments, thus outside crypto (and even stocks, as you probably saw).
The positive pushes money toward crypto.
In the next months, I bet that a couple of states in the US will fight over being the "most crypto friendly state". I'm also pretty sure we're going to see adoption by more corporations, would it be just to speak to a specific audience (think
DOGEUSD
). Their logic is very simple, why should we not get access to that money some of our customers have? I also think Covid restrictions will be lifted around end of Q1 2022 which will increase optimism and positivity.
To sum up:
- If the negative wins, then BTC will fall below 30k and maybe down to 20k. I think it's about 25% likely. This could last for a while, from a couple of months (possible) to 1-2 years (very unlikely).
- If the positive wins, FOMO will kick in and $100k, $200k this year are within reach because investors will go in with the logic "around 2030, 1BTC=$1M"
A good trade right now is to buy below $40k and exit as we approach $60k.
My trade is to HODL way beyond $60k.
DYOR.
