2024-04-22 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Today’s bounce was expected and necessary for the bulls to stop the selling and the real question was not if we get a pull back but how high it will be. That will determine the new short-medium term targets.
bitcoin
comment: Most of fintwit will promise you this pullback is the start of the new bull run to 100k or 1mio. If you believe that, I can’t help you. Bulls holding this longer above 60000 than I would have imagined but it does not change my outlook. The next bear leg will start soon and I think once we have a daily close below 60000, this is over and the guys calling for 100k are the ones who will see all their profits erased and tell you to sell your house to buy more at 40k.
current market cycle: trading range but start of the bear trend is upon us
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls buying everything around 60000 and keeping this afloat. They want follow through tomorrow and another daily close above the 20ema around 66000. If they manage that and overall market conditions stay bullish enough for a couple of days, we could see 70000 again but I highly doubt higher prices.
bear case: Bears did a good job a keeping this a trading range at the recent lows but bulls are trying to break above. Market needs to trade below the daily 20ema again for more trading range price action, otherwise we will see higher prices. Bear case is that 70000 was heavily rejected 3 times now and overall market conditions are worsening. If most indexes drop, so will this ponzi scheme, make no mistake about it. We have enough data to know this.
short term: Bearish under 68000 for 60000 and Bullish above 68000 to 70000
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
overall market comment
Today’s bounce was expected and necessary for the bulls to stop the selling and the real question was not if we get a pull back but how high it will be. That will determine the new short-medium term targets.
bitcoin
comment: Most of fintwit will promise you this pullback is the start of the new bull run to 100k or 1mio. If you believe that, I can’t help you. Bulls holding this longer above 60000 than I would have imagined but it does not change my outlook. The next bear leg will start soon and I think once we have a daily close below 60000, this is over and the guys calling for 100k are the ones who will see all their profits erased and tell you to sell your house to buy more at 40k.
current market cycle: trading range but start of the bear trend is upon us
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls buying everything around 60000 and keeping this afloat. They want follow through tomorrow and another daily close above the 20ema around 66000. If they manage that and overall market conditions stay bullish enough for a couple of days, we could see 70000 again but I highly doubt higher prices.
bear case: Bears did a good job a keeping this a trading range at the recent lows but bulls are trying to break above. Market needs to trade below the daily 20ema again for more trading range price action, otherwise we will see higher prices. Bear case is that 70000 was heavily rejected 3 times now and overall market conditions are worsening. If most indexes drop, so will this ponzi scheme, make no mistake about it. We have enough data to know this.
short term: Bearish under 68000 for 60000 and Bullish above 68000 to 70000
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
