thekevin
Long

BTC Update (Short Term Bull Scenario)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I am seeing a lot of similarities between the last 1-5move up (April/May) and this move. I think that this 'dump' has been too severe for btc to have ended the impulse already. Generally, from a psychological analysis, the ACTUAL tops have people believing there is more to come. Therefore, the sell-offs don't actually happen as fast, as people keep 'buying the dip'. This feels much more like a wave 4 trap, where everyone expects it to fall when it really isn't - therefore overselling nicely into well placed buy orders for 1 last leg.

To summarise, I believe that we will have a 5th leg up. This will finish a larger scale wave 1 (into a wave 2) or be the end of an X wave that takes us to new lows. It could be a good idea to sell the top of the 5 wave and then just wait it out to see what happens. Maybe ladder in some buy at the .618 of the whole move. If the .618 then fails u can sell for a small loss. Alternatively, you buy the .618 and then have nice returns if a macro wave 3-5 plays out.

If the bottom of this channel breaks with force and we don't hold the .382 of this potential wave 3, then this move is over. This is a wave count I pointed out in 1 of my last posts.

Edit: I just realised that this wave 5 could also coincide with the 10th of August and the 'ETF' news event. It could very well be a 'buy the rumour, sell the news' type of affair.
Comment: Zooming in on this current impulse move down. I believe the waves 1 + 3 are in. Wave 3 did not quite reach 1.618 of wave 1. Because of this, I can assume that wave 5 will be either 0.618, 1.0 or 1.618 of wave 1. the 0.618 would seem like the most likely scenario as it will also coincide with the bottom of the 'macro' channel.

Comment: The last picture assumes that the wave 4 has finished. It could go as high as the top of wave 1 (at around 7860) and then fall lower, providing my counts are correct.
Comment:
Comment:
I've been looking at the same thing.
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thekevin TRUEPXTRICIXN
@TRUEPXTRICIXN, Hopefully we're the contrarians and will get rewarded for it!
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