Hello everyone,
hope you guys had a great Easter Holiday.
Same as in Q1, I decided to share with you What I Think is the Most likely going to happen with price in Q2, purely based on current micro¯o economic conditions and indicators, plus what are charts presenting right now.
Before I get to the business, I would like to reflect on my Q1 outlook, mostly because I believe things that were said and thought back then are still relevant today for future outlook (Q2), so I would suggest if you want to understand better, check out this first ↓↓↓
So when the year started, my Base Expectation was: "my Base Expectation is the market can still keep going higher. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decides to START cutting rates.
I guess everyone knows what happened next... We indeed rallied, in matter of fact, to the new ATHs at around 74k. This is impressive to me, considering the market conditions we are at right now and what is possibly coming soon (Q2).
Finally it's time to get back to the business, so let's get to the "prediction" of what Q2 most likely bring upon us.
So, I have to say, I believe that today Bitcoin conditions are harder to read than back in Q1 due to several reasons. One I already mentioned and its Price reaching New ATHs, but there are several others like CPI numbers are still elevated, potential upticks in unemployed numbers, FED balance, FED meetings and the most important - first Interest Rates cutting around the corner.
These conditions make the market harder to read because of the Time Window that it provides for Price to "keep run going higher" before "expectations of reverse". Meaning, that market participants still expect the market to go higher, because there was not Rate Cuts yet, BUT Price already can be elevated enough and with Cuts around the corner process of Market Selling/Reversing may start sooner (being frontrunned) before the official Cut is done. Explained in chart pic. ↓↓↓
And since my Whole Idea is Based on previous time in History when we were in similar market conditions, either times were different (highier IR, highier CPI, price at ATH), I still expect Markets to do the same thing, because I believe that human behavior and psyche related to Markets not changing, so result should be same, until we proved otherwise.
So basically, My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP. That is because, as I mentioned in Q1 outlook:
"6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found"
Aswell note, that the price of asset class (BTC) went down in time with FED balance sheet and even kept going lower due to the "recession scare" even when FED balance sheet started expanding, and that the New Bull market didn't start until FED printed ridiculous amount of money.
Since I believe this perception of the Market is still valid, I will follow it further until I am proved wrong by the chart itself.
= Price will be higher than 74k in July after the first rate cut already occurred.
Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpful in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Thanks!
Best regards,
Joe
hope you guys had a great Easter Holiday.
Same as in Q1, I decided to share with you What I Think is the Most likely going to happen with price in Q2, purely based on current micro¯o economic conditions and indicators, plus what are charts presenting right now.
Before I get to the business, I would like to reflect on my Q1 outlook, mostly because I believe things that were said and thought back then are still relevant today for future outlook (Q2), so I would suggest if you want to understand better, check out this first ↓↓↓
So when the year started, my Base Expectation was: "my Base Expectation is the market can still keep going higher. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decides to START cutting rates.
I guess everyone knows what happened next... We indeed rallied, in matter of fact, to the new ATHs at around 74k. This is impressive to me, considering the market conditions we are at right now and what is possibly coming soon (Q2).
Finally it's time to get back to the business, so let's get to the "prediction" of what Q2 most likely bring upon us.
So, I have to say, I believe that today Bitcoin conditions are harder to read than back in Q1 due to several reasons. One I already mentioned and its Price reaching New ATHs, but there are several others like CPI numbers are still elevated, potential upticks in unemployed numbers, FED balance, FED meetings and the most important - first Interest Rates cutting around the corner.
These conditions make the market harder to read because of the Time Window that it provides for Price to "keep run going higher" before "expectations of reverse". Meaning, that market participants still expect the market to go higher, because there was not Rate Cuts yet, BUT Price already can be elevated enough and with Cuts around the corner process of Market Selling/Reversing may start sooner (being frontrunned) before the official Cut is done. Explained in chart pic. ↓↓↓
And since my Whole Idea is Based on previous time in History when we were in similar market conditions, either times were different (highier IR, highier CPI, price at ATH), I still expect Markets to do the same thing, because I believe that human behavior and psyche related to Markets not changing, so result should be same, until we proved otherwise.
So basically, My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP. That is because, as I mentioned in Q1 outlook:
"6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found"
Aswell note, that the price of asset class (BTC) went down in time with FED balance sheet and even kept going lower due to the "recession scare" even when FED balance sheet started expanding, and that the New Bull market didn't start until FED printed ridiculous amount of money.
Since I believe this perception of the Market is still valid, I will follow it further until I am proved wrong by the chart itself.
= Price will be higher than 74k in July after the first rate cut already occurred.
Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpful in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Thanks!
Best regards,
Joe
