We can clearly see that parabolic runs are being respected until a selling point (break of the parabola) occurs.
In every new cycle the time for the completion of the curve is getting extended while it is getting less "aggressive" as far the percentage concerns, the selling point is driving the price inside a downward channel where in every new cycle the channel gets narrower and also needs less time to complete a breakout to the upside.
For example:
21 Nov '11 parabola
805 days
53518%
17 Feb '14 selling point
490 days
-86% from ATH
24 Aug '15 parabola
938 days
9845%
12 Mar '18 selling point
378 days
-83% from ATH
10 Dec '18 is where the new parabolic curve occurred giving us 2042% in 1071 days, on 15 Nov '21 we can see that this curve broke gravitating us down inside this downward channel.
My scenarios:
1) We respect the upward channel that we are already in
2) We keep heading to the downside to meet ascending green line and purple support line around 20K (previous ATH) where we could have bottommed
3) We will respect the average correction percentage (approx. -80%) that will lead the price to 12-13K support.
The second scenario is more probable for me but first we need to break the downward channel and get supported from the 21 EMA.
Also the halving events are already riding those parabolic moves (lower lows of curves are already being printed) and it takes around 800 days from the selling point(start of the downtrend) to meet the halving date.
NOTE:
GREEN DAYS
24 AUG '15-21 Nov '11=133
938-805=133 days
24 Aug '15+133=10 Dec '18
938+133=1071 days
RED DAYS
17 Feb '14-12 Mar '18=112
490-378=112 days
12 Mar '18- 112=15 Aug '22
378-112=266 days
Speculation: The next parabolic curve probably can be occurred around 15 Aug '22.
In every new cycle the time for the completion of the curve is getting extended while it is getting less "aggressive" as far the percentage concerns, the selling point is driving the price inside a downward channel where in every new cycle the channel gets narrower and also needs less time to complete a breakout to the upside.
For example:
21 Nov '11 parabola
805 days
53518%
17 Feb '14 selling point
490 days
-86% from ATH
24 Aug '15 parabola
938 days
9845%
12 Mar '18 selling point
378 days
-83% from ATH
10 Dec '18 is where the new parabolic curve occurred giving us 2042% in 1071 days, on 15 Nov '21 we can see that this curve broke gravitating us down inside this downward channel.
My scenarios:
1) We respect the upward channel that we are already in
2) We keep heading to the downside to meet ascending green line and purple support line around 20K (previous ATH) where we could have bottommed
3) We will respect the average correction percentage (approx. -80%) that will lead the price to 12-13K support.
The second scenario is more probable for me but first we need to break the downward channel and get supported from the 21 EMA.
Also the halving events are already riding those parabolic moves (lower lows of curves are already being printed) and it takes around 800 days from the selling point(start of the downtrend) to meet the halving date.
NOTE:
GREEN DAYS
24 AUG '15-21 Nov '11=133
938-805=133 days
24 Aug '15+133=10 Dec '18
938+133=1071 days
RED DAYS
17 Feb '14-12 Mar '18=112
490-378=112 days
12 Mar '18- 112=15 Aug '22
378-112=266 days
Speculation: The next parabolic curve probably can be occurred around 15 Aug '22.