There are a few factors going into this prediction so I'll divide them up into an ordered list.
1. Each bullrun producing lower highs relative to the previous bullrun. The yellow trend lines connect a previous bullrun's top to the following bullrun's height and the projection to an arbitrary level (horizontal red line). Measuring the length of the projected lines to the red horizontal line, there are 53 bars (approx). So by default, we can draw a yellow line from the previous bullrun peak to the horizontal red line at 53 bars spaced. This gives us a resistance trend line for Bitcoin's next bullrun.
2. Based on historical pullbacks, each one bottoms in the fibonacci's Golden Zone. The last bullrun double topped at the 141.4% Fib Extension. Historically, Bitcoin has reached an extension of 161.8%. This leads me to believe that many investors held through the last dip (Roaul Pal is one of them). I beleive these investors that held their bags will take profit earlier as their bags will be much larger than the previous run. The last bullrun 161.8% target which everyone thought was going to be the peack is exactly on the 127.2% extension for this bullrun which confirms my bias that we'll see continued diminished returns this bullrun.
3. The bullrun's peak was produced between 12 months and 17 months after each Bitcoin halving. taking the average of the values (15 months), we've got a peak in this bullrun at appox July 2025.
The whales who held through this bear market due to the lower than expected peak of the last bullrun will seek to take profits at their original target at 161.8% extension. This so happens to align with this bullrun's 127.2% extension. In addition, the projected resistance based on the last peak to the arbitrary horizontal level cross through the 127.2% adding more confluence. Finally, using the average of each halving to their respected peak in each cycle (15 months) this puts the peak right at the intersection between the yellow resistance line and the 127.2% extension.
My personal thoughts.
I feel as though capital will flow from Bitcoin into the ISO20022's as it appears that Bitcoins dominance will breakdown this cycle out of a consolidation. Additionally, it appears that XRP and other ISO's have been in consolidation since 2017 while Bitcoin and other alts were ripping. I feel this has been planned form the start because, who knows who Satoshi is right? I don't think Bitcoin will disapear or go to 0, but I feel that Bitcoin's purpose was for this, to transition us all into the ISO's and CBDC's. I see Bitcoin producing a larger pullback after this bullrun due to the flow of capital into the ISO's
1. Each bullrun producing lower highs relative to the previous bullrun. The yellow trend lines connect a previous bullrun's top to the following bullrun's height and the projection to an arbitrary level (horizontal red line). Measuring the length of the projected lines to the red horizontal line, there are 53 bars (approx). So by default, we can draw a yellow line from the previous bullrun peak to the horizontal red line at 53 bars spaced. This gives us a resistance trend line for Bitcoin's next bullrun.
2. Based on historical pullbacks, each one bottoms in the fibonacci's Golden Zone. The last bullrun double topped at the 141.4% Fib Extension. Historically, Bitcoin has reached an extension of 161.8%. This leads me to believe that many investors held through the last dip (Roaul Pal is one of them). I beleive these investors that held their bags will take profit earlier as their bags will be much larger than the previous run. The last bullrun 161.8% target which everyone thought was going to be the peack is exactly on the 127.2% extension for this bullrun which confirms my bias that we'll see continued diminished returns this bullrun.
3. The bullrun's peak was produced between 12 months and 17 months after each Bitcoin halving. taking the average of the values (15 months), we've got a peak in this bullrun at appox July 2025.
The whales who held through this bear market due to the lower than expected peak of the last bullrun will seek to take profits at their original target at 161.8% extension. This so happens to align with this bullrun's 127.2% extension. In addition, the projected resistance based on the last peak to the arbitrary horizontal level cross through the 127.2% adding more confluence. Finally, using the average of each halving to their respected peak in each cycle (15 months) this puts the peak right at the intersection between the yellow resistance line and the 127.2% extension.
My personal thoughts.
I feel as though capital will flow from Bitcoin into the ISO20022's as it appears that Bitcoins dominance will breakdown this cycle out of a consolidation. Additionally, it appears that XRP and other ISO's have been in consolidation since 2017 while Bitcoin and other alts were ripping. I feel this has been planned form the start because, who knows who Satoshi is right? I don't think Bitcoin will disapear or go to 0, but I feel that Bitcoin's purpose was for this, to transition us all into the ISO's and CBDC's. I see Bitcoin producing a larger pullback after this bullrun due to the flow of capital into the ISO's