Possibility vs Probability.
In Jan I charted out the possibility of revisiting the 20k price range. Looks like that idea was the one the market decided to take.
Here is the link to that chart:
I use Elliott Wave style TA and have determined this is likely the bottom, or very close to the bottom, of the most recent bear market beginning November 2021.
My reasoning:
-Counting waves since the beginning of BTC's inception, wave 1 ended at roughly $20k price in late 2017.
-Wave 3 started March 2020 (COVID begins)
-Using Fib extension tools, I've determined that Wave 3 has likely finished, and in fact exceeded its typical extension of 4.23 (blow off top)
- Since wave 3 has finished, we are likely in the C leg of Wave 4.
- Elliott Wave rule - Wave 1 and Wave 4 cannot overlap.
- Crypto Elliot Wave rule - Experience in the crypto market says they can but only *somewhat*
-BTC has now intersected with the 200 week MA. In the past, BTC either finds support, or only briefly dipped below it.
Strategy:
I've taken a position at the current BTC price of $21k.
Since we know Wave 1 and 4 can overlap in crypto, and we know BTC can move below the 200 week MA, I've always set up buy positions at $16k and $13k, just in case.
Using a fib trend extension (starting since the beginning of BTC), the likely target for BTC is $85k.
Even if BTC were to drop to something crazy, like $10k, the risk/reward is 6:1.
Even as I write this, BTC dropped to $19.3k, an even better price.
As for what comes after the $85K price target is reached? Sadness. But thats for another chart. You eagle eyed Elliott Wavers can prob already spot what comes after $85k, already on this chart.
In Jan I charted out the possibility of revisiting the 20k price range. Looks like that idea was the one the market decided to take.
Here is the link to that chart:
I use Elliott Wave style TA and have determined this is likely the bottom, or very close to the bottom, of the most recent bear market beginning November 2021.
My reasoning:
-Counting waves since the beginning of BTC's inception, wave 1 ended at roughly $20k price in late 2017.
-Wave 3 started March 2020 (COVID begins)
-Using Fib extension tools, I've determined that Wave 3 has likely finished, and in fact exceeded its typical extension of 4.23 (blow off top)
- Since wave 3 has finished, we are likely in the C leg of Wave 4.
- Elliott Wave rule - Wave 1 and Wave 4 cannot overlap.
- Crypto Elliot Wave rule - Experience in the crypto market says they can but only *somewhat*
-BTC has now intersected with the 200 week MA. In the past, BTC either finds support, or only briefly dipped below it.
Strategy:
I've taken a position at the current BTC price of $21k.
Since we know Wave 1 and 4 can overlap in crypto, and we know BTC can move below the 200 week MA, I've always set up buy positions at $16k and $13k, just in case.
Using a fib trend extension (starting since the beginning of BTC), the likely target for BTC is $85k.
Even if BTC were to drop to something crazy, like $10k, the risk/reward is 6:1.
Even as I write this, BTC dropped to $19.3k, an even better price.
As for what comes after the $85K price target is reached? Sadness. But thats for another chart. You eagle eyed Elliott Wavers can prob already spot what comes after $85k, already on this chart.