Halfway point of Year ONE--Third 4-year Cycle for BTC
I wanted to see how many similarities Bitcoin displayed across each of of it's first two 4-Year halving cycles. Then, compare those to the current first year of the new and third, 4 year cycle that we're currently in (I linked a trend line chart for the BTC 4-Year cycle).
Here is what I found:
1. In each Year ONE following the halving event in year 4, the most price appreciation occurs and marks a significant top preceding a bear market in years 2 and 3 of the ensuing cycle.
2. Each Year ONE grinds through a mid-year correction bottoming in July followed by a turn around and new uptrend. Corrections have varied with 2013/75%, 2017/38% and current year one holding at 56%.
3. Year ONE price also tends to peak in November or early December with corrections along the way of 20-40% followed by choppiness into the year end.
What's more interesting is the relationship between the back half price rallies of 2013 and 2017. They also halved in terms of percentage increase. 1.8 to be exact but very close to a factor of 2.
Breakdown: 17.46x in 2013, 9.74x in 2017--if we apply the the 1.8 factor the results are a 5.44x (9.74/1.8) expected appreciation from here if we've already bottomed (at the $28,600 low). That would result in a price of $184,208 per Bitcoin by November or early December if this 3rd cycle Year ONE emulates the first two.
Finally, the bear market bottom in 2015 to the 2017 top was 1,064 days. Applying the same timeframe to the 2018 bottom to the expected 2021 peak lands us in that familiar month of November.
Here is what I found:
1. In each Year ONE following the halving event in year 4, the most price appreciation occurs and marks a significant top preceding a bear market in years 2 and 3 of the ensuing cycle.
2. Each Year ONE grinds through a mid-year correction bottoming in July followed by a turn around and new uptrend. Corrections have varied with 2013/75%, 2017/38% and current year one holding at 56%.
3. Year ONE price also tends to peak in November or early December with corrections along the way of 20-40% followed by choppiness into the year end.
What's more interesting is the relationship between the back half price rallies of 2013 and 2017. They also halved in terms of percentage increase. 1.8 to be exact but very close to a factor of 2.
Breakdown: 17.46x in 2013, 9.74x in 2017--if we apply the the 1.8 factor the results are a 5.44x (9.74/1.8) expected appreciation from here if we've already bottomed (at the $28,600 low). That would result in a price of $184,208 per Bitcoin by November or early December if this 3rd cycle Year ONE emulates the first two.
Finally, the bear market bottom in 2015 to the 2017 top was 1,064 days. Applying the same timeframe to the 2018 bottom to the expected 2021 peak lands us in that familiar month of November.
Comment:
Now that we've cleared the September high corrective wave 2 appears to be completed and we're surely in wave 3 of the new uptrend. Wave 3's can get crazy as we know. Major wave 3 of this bull market was an exact 5.618 of wave 1.
The 1.618 extension on the current daily chart puts us at $77,516 which could be the next correction on the way to $184,208.
Corrections from now, if like 2013 and 2017 will be violent but short. Diamond hands and steel guts from here required!
The 1.618 extension on the current daily chart puts us at $77,516 which could be the next correction on the way to $184,208.
Corrections from now, if like 2013 and 2017 will be violent but short. Diamond hands and steel guts from here required!
-vertical orange line: low for each prior Year ONE (2021 pending)
-blue date/range: bear market low to Year ONE peak
-black date/range: Year ONE bottom to year end (all within 2 weeks range oeo)
-vertical red dash line: Year ONE peak for '13, '17 and expected '21 peak
-green price ranges: Year ONE first/second half rallies. 2021 expected second half
-red price range: YEAR ONE mid year corrections