Hey guys, an update on what I feel is happening:
Basically I think we finished wave 3 (in blue on my last chart and represented by subwave v in red on this chart) and started wave 4. Wave 4 is a correction. There are several types of corrections: zigzags, flat corrections, irregular corrections, triangular corrections and a combination of all the above. It is important to try to narrow down and identify the type that we are in because it helps in sing-trading for those interested and also helps in identifying a selling point for those who missed the top. For example in flat corrections, and irregular corrections wave B will go all the way back to the top (in flat) or even higher (in irregular) before wave C can start, so in both cases the end of wave B will make an excellent selling point especially for those who missed the top of wave 3; whereas in zigzags wave B only retraces part of wave A.
The first step to know what we are getting is to wait for wave A of the ABC correction to finish. In flat and irregular corrections wave A will have 3 subwaves. In zigzag corrections wave A will have 5 subwaves.
In our case with BTC I think wave A seems to have finished and looks like it consisted of 5 subwaves as seen in this chart. I think we are currently in wave B of the correction. This wave B in zigzags can retrace 0.382 or 0.5 or 0.618 of wave A. As you can see we are heading for about 0.618 (on this chart the Fibs are reversed so 0.382 is 0.618 and vice versa). I think wave B will probably end at about 10818 and then wave C will start and will dive even deeper, possibly to the 1.618 Fib level of wave A which confluences with the bottom of the ascending channel, giving me more confidence about it.
Basically I think we finished wave 3 (in blue on my last chart and represented by subwave v in red on this chart) and started wave 4. Wave 4 is a correction. There are several types of corrections: zigzags, flat corrections, irregular corrections, triangular corrections and a combination of all the above. It is important to try to narrow down and identify the type that we are in because it helps in sing-trading for those interested and also helps in identifying a selling point for those who missed the top. For example in flat corrections, and irregular corrections wave B will go all the way back to the top (in flat) or even higher (in irregular) before wave C can start, so in both cases the end of wave B will make an excellent selling point especially for those who missed the top of wave 3; whereas in zigzags wave B only retraces part of wave A.
The first step to know what we are getting is to wait for wave A of the ABC correction to finish. In flat and irregular corrections wave A will have 3 subwaves. In zigzag corrections wave A will have 5 subwaves.
In our case with BTC I think wave A seems to have finished and looks like it consisted of 5 subwaves as seen in this chart. I think we are currently in wave B of the correction. This wave B in zigzags can retrace 0.382 or 0.5 or 0.618 of wave A. As you can see we are heading for about 0.618 (on this chart the Fibs are reversed so 0.382 is 0.618 and vice versa). I think wave B will probably end at about 10818 and then wave C will start and will dive even deeper, possibly to the 1.618 Fib level of wave A which confluences with the bottom of the ascending channel, giving me more confidence about it.