BTC Timing thinking.. K decision point for the correction time
In a long term investing vision, I am trying to identifie looking at (the small) history of BTC how long can be this correction-consolidation. I think that it won't crash to 0, this is my believe, and i think that a 5th cycle will soon or later start, with new ath in perspective. and i hope that something will be done to make btc more usefull for everyday and small payments, because actually it is not, and it is not really the best store of value of the world too. It is purely speculative even if the tech is really good. Concurrence is already here.. i don't want to be in if it is the aol of the blockchain.. But i still think that nothing bigger will emerge so soon, and i believe to this next big wave cycle.
When i am investing, i don't want to be in a risky, incertain long market, and i prefer have my money on markets that show a clear and strong signal. Why should i wait or loose. I can stay in cash and get in later with less risk and a similar reward, i will sleep bettter! I still can trade it like i did at 6000 level and accumulate if it goes higher, or daytrade it on new lows and reversal pattern (wich can be trappy in this type of configuration of market when no new money is coming, new lows are in perspective, people are scared to get in (stop loss are your friends in this configuration)... and long term holders and investors can think that it is the time to cash out at every new low (if they didn't already, we are not sure about this), and we are under 10000 (psychological aspect). The regulation can make some big old whales cash out too if they were in btc to avoid taxes.. i don't even talk about black market..
As we see in history, and as i told you, i don't want a big part of my money in a one year market that is either going down or accumulating with lots of turbulence. My money management tells me that i'd rather wait and maybe miss 1000 or 2000 or 3000 $ on the way up to a new ATH if i get (potentially) a huge return on few months even if i enter later with more money.. during this time my money is working on other markets.
First, we check a monthly chart:
182 D average was the most frequent correction time from the ATH to the safe rebuy zone.
but btc had a bigger one.. 710 D.. My thought tell me that this is not going to happen, but who knows.. And we are actually at this K decision point. We see it on the month chart.. the indicator tell us that too.
We will tcheck it in weekly after..
When i am investing, i don't want to be in a risky, incertain long market, and i prefer have my money on markets that show a clear and strong signal. Why should i wait or loose. I can stay in cash and get in later with less risk and a similar reward, i will sleep bettter! I still can trade it like i did at 6000 level and accumulate if it goes higher, or daytrade it on new lows and reversal pattern (wich can be trappy in this type of configuration of market when no new money is coming, new lows are in perspective, people are scared to get in (stop loss are your friends in this configuration)... and long term holders and investors can think that it is the time to cash out at every new low (if they didn't already, we are not sure about this), and we are under 10000 (psychological aspect). The regulation can make some big old whales cash out too if they were in btc to avoid taxes.. i don't even talk about black market..
As we see in history, and as i told you, i don't want a big part of my money in a one year market that is either going down or accumulating with lots of turbulence. My money management tells me that i'd rather wait and maybe miss 1000 or 2000 or 3000 $ on the way up to a new ATH if i get (potentially) a huge return on few months even if i enter later with more money.. during this time my money is working on other markets.
First, we check a monthly chart:
182 D average was the most frequent correction time from the ATH to the safe rebuy zone.
but btc had a bigger one.. 710 D.. My thought tell me that this is not going to happen, but who knows.. And we are actually at this K decision point. We see it on the month chart.. the indicator tell us that too.
We will tcheck it in weekly after..
Comment:
Tcheck the RSI, when it is going under 70 and not goinf back up..
Comment:
Weekly TF: Stock/ADX DMI/RSI. Weekly could show us a down for one week minimum, and the rsi is at a key point , going down. If we go up and it fails to go back up 69, it is a bull trap. It could success and start going up. This why if you are in cash, i suggest to wait a little if you cannot monitor it. you will have a better view very soon.. in the 2 next weeks, or before if it reverse strongly.. DMX is showing a bull control, a divergence kind, but not enough powerfull to success yet and take over bears. stockastic is reversing, but it can go a little more down or sideways even if it is green.. to go further, lets go to daily..
Comment:
In daily, the probability are not really with us..
stochastic: same as 4 august 2017 maybe... but for all other reversals, we went all the way down first... tells me nothing. i am not betting on luck
DMI: bears are tired.. not much momentum pushing down at this point.. but no fresh money so price goes down.. still red line on top.. could stop here, or if it goes too much down at every K psy levels, a climax sell can always come, or just a regain of the bear momentum.. If it hold here a long time, it could reverse.. indecision..
RSI: going down, but could reverse here as it had done in the past.. still down
market sentiment: really big indecision..
Another fear and capitulation is in play if we go down under the last down.
But we are not here yet. in the next post you can see my buy zones(the up and the down can be a support. We can expect new lows around 8900 first or 8080,7482 6200 (last low), 6883.. My prefered one are 8080, and 8900 6200 and 4200 the most important if it goes under our last low.. because they are on trend line or/and good supports (in white).. And the 4200 one is a good one if we expect similar timing as during the past. a chart is better, just look!
stochastic: same as 4 august 2017 maybe... but for all other reversals, we went all the way down first... tells me nothing. i am not betting on luck
DMI: bears are tired.. not much momentum pushing down at this point.. but no fresh money so price goes down.. still red line on top.. could stop here, or if it goes too much down at every K psy levels, a climax sell can always come, or just a regain of the bear momentum.. If it hold here a long time, it could reverse.. indecision..
RSI: going down, but could reverse here as it had done in the past.. still down
market sentiment: really big indecision..
Another fear and capitulation is in play if we go down under the last down.
But we are not here yet. in the next post you can see my buy zones(the up and the down can be a support. We can expect new lows around 8900 first or 8080,7482 6200 (last low), 6883.. My prefered one are 8080, and 8900 6200 and 4200 the most important if it goes under our last low.. because they are on trend line or/and good supports (in white).. And the 4200 one is a good one if we expect similar timing as during the past. a chart is better, just look!
Comment:
support lines, and areas, and best timing... not good for bulls if there is not a big reversal soon
Comment:
Ok, today we had something interresting..
A little bullish move emerged.
so i want to see now for the long bullrun comeback and the end of the bear market something like this:
the break out of this big falling wedge, the yellow fib holding, a move up on the red target in this green zone at the top of the chart. Lots of quick trades setup might emerge: breakout trade until fibs or/and read zone, rebound either on the 9990 new support, and if this make a big bull flag, same trades later. So this put in front of us some long opportunities if the breakout happen. I will use stoploss for each trade.
You have on the chart my resistance, support, target, fibs, and diagonals lines that might mark some stops in the moove.
If the yellow fib hold, this will be a good sign.
Keep in mind that it can go sideway and create a giant bull flag
So Stoploss under the last low, and cut the profit on target. If you just make one trade, you have to select the best one. A rebound on the fib or the support is quite good. I would in this case take profit on fibs and the purple diagonal if you cannot be in front of your screen.
Hope that this will lead to a bull market! if not, well, we will get out our small holdings and wait again to buy lower..
A little bullish move emerged.
so i want to see now for the long bullrun comeback and the end of the bear market something like this:
the break out of this big falling wedge, the yellow fib holding, a move up on the red target in this green zone at the top of the chart. Lots of quick trades setup might emerge: breakout trade until fibs or/and read zone, rebound either on the 9990 new support, and if this make a big bull flag, same trades later. So this put in front of us some long opportunities if the breakout happen. I will use stoploss for each trade.
You have on the chart my resistance, support, target, fibs, and diagonals lines that might mark some stops in the moove.
If the yellow fib hold, this will be a good sign.
Keep in mind that it can go sideway and create a giant bull flag
So Stoploss under the last low, and cut the profit on target. If you just make one trade, you have to select the best one. A rebound on the fib or the support is quite good. I would in this case take profit on fibs and the purple diagonal if you cannot be in front of your screen.
Hope that this will lead to a bull market! if not, well, we will get out our small holdings and wait again to buy lower..
Comment:
"cut profit on targets": yellow blue fibs and/or purple diagonal that cross the red target.
Trade closed: target reached:
looking for rebuy