Currently BTCUSD has another doji after being rejected at the most recent key resistance level at 37.3-38.3k resistance. Currently it is sitting at the most important zone which is the combination of various different tools and ways of reading the market. For me to even consider Bitcoin having a major dead cat bounce and going all the way up to 44 and then even 47k I'd have to see it close above 38.3k first. So far this dip during the weekend might be another little trap, but eventually we might have a gap down that doesn't get filled and the market keeps dumping while everyone expects it to fill. If BTC and ETH start showing some strength and especially if ETHUSD had another attempt to break 2800-3000 again I'd get pretty bullish in the short term. I could see ETH hitting 3300 and BTC hitting 47-49k before going lower IF they go lower. It is better to take the situation step by step because it is pretty tricky and I doubt we will have any massive moves like we saw in Q4 2020 or Q1 2021. At least not to the upside.
At the moment there is a 'clash' between TA and several models in my opinion. Based on everything I see TA screams that we will go lower and 31k won't hold. Once that breaks we could bottom anywhere between 12-24k, but not above 24k. Those models I am talking about could essentially break if BTC goes below 24k and we'd have a very strange situation. Of course if there is a big dip and these models break, in my opinion the buying opportunity will be tremendous regardless of what these models indicate. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies in general went too high too fast, and the huge amount of leverage in the market is accelerating these moves both to the upside and downside. Markets are chaotic and models don't last forever. Currently we have tested the 300 DMA 2-3 times, we have tested 28-31k 6 times and we are below the 200 DMA while a death cross is coming. Historically after such a big move more downside followed, but this doesn't mean we can't get a significant dead cat bounce or that history won't repeat.
Over the last few days we potentially saw Bitcoin go up due to the El Salvador news + people front running Microstrategy. I don't know when will they start buying or if they have already, but after they announce they bought I think it will be a 'sell the news' event. They will prop up the market, but once they finish buying the price won't have the support it did. 500M isn't that large especially at current valuation, but it isn't negligible either. So next time we test 31k I don't think there is a way to recover. Something I said 1-2 weeks ago was that Bitcoin needed a miracle to be saved and so far Microstrategy + El Salvador have been that miracle, but let's see because the 'laws' of supply and demand are much stronger than 'simple' news. Bitcoin would need something of incredible magnitude to change course here.
Altcoins up until today kept falling vs Bitcoin and as Bitcoin was trying to hold its ground the kept falling. In my opinion this is showing that the market is in a weak state. Again historically speaking alts probably need 3-5 months from now before there is another alt season. Would that be because Bitcoin is going down and they go down too or would it be because they go down vs BTC and BTC is going up? I don't know, but I am not really interested in taking big risks on alts at the moment. Their structure is looking pretty ugly and after about 4 months of alt season they need some time to cool down before they make another big move up. With Bitcoin in such a weird state and with the bearish outlook being more likely I wouldn't tell anyone to put a lot in alts. Yes some specific picks might work in the short term, but I wouldn't be making long term investments here.
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At the moment there is a 'clash' between TA and several models in my opinion. Based on everything I see TA screams that we will go lower and 31k won't hold. Once that breaks we could bottom anywhere between 12-24k, but not above 24k. Those models I am talking about could essentially break if BTC goes below 24k and we'd have a very strange situation. Of course if there is a big dip and these models break, in my opinion the buying opportunity will be tremendous regardless of what these models indicate. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies in general went too high too fast, and the huge amount of leverage in the market is accelerating these moves both to the upside and downside. Markets are chaotic and models don't last forever. Currently we have tested the 300 DMA 2-3 times, we have tested 28-31k 6 times and we are below the 200 DMA while a death cross is coming. Historically after such a big move more downside followed, but this doesn't mean we can't get a significant dead cat bounce or that history won't repeat.
Over the last few days we potentially saw Bitcoin go up due to the El Salvador news + people front running Microstrategy. I don't know when will they start buying or if they have already, but after they announce they bought I think it will be a 'sell the news' event. They will prop up the market, but once they finish buying the price won't have the support it did. 500M isn't that large especially at current valuation, but it isn't negligible either. So next time we test 31k I don't think there is a way to recover. Something I said 1-2 weeks ago was that Bitcoin needed a miracle to be saved and so far Microstrategy + El Salvador have been that miracle, but let's see because the 'laws' of supply and demand are much stronger than 'simple' news. Bitcoin would need something of incredible magnitude to change course here.
Altcoins up until today kept falling vs Bitcoin and as Bitcoin was trying to hold its ground the kept falling. In my opinion this is showing that the market is in a weak state. Again historically speaking alts probably need 3-5 months from now before there is another alt season. Would that be because Bitcoin is going down and they go down too or would it be because they go down vs BTC and BTC is going up? I don't know, but I am not really interested in taking big risks on alts at the moment. Their structure is looking pretty ugly and after about 4 months of alt season they need some time to cool down before they make another big move up. With Bitcoin in such a weird state and with the bearish outlook being more likely I wouldn't tell anyone to put a lot in alts. Yes some specific picks might work in the short term, but I wouldn't be making long term investments here.
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/d/dlA88ZNR.png
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/d/dGcxAUoN.png
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/c/cLemSnJU.png
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/c/cinhuQg8.png
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/j/Jf3hv0RE.png
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/h/hQWdVMfN.png
