Hello everyone, first of all, I want to tell you, that analysis like this, you probably do not see very often, also, this analysis will be a little bit longer then other analysis. Back to work, first of all, I've been thinking about this option for a long time, and now I'm think, that is the right time to share it with you. But first, back to begin. What is Bull and Bear market?. The easiest explanation: Bull market is when things go up - price increasing, the Bear market is when things go down - price decreasing .This 2 naming aren't very clear like were created. Some people thing, that Bull stands for price increasing because, when Bull attacks, it take victim on his horns, and throw it into the air (up). On the other hand, bear have his big paws, by which his victim take to the ground (down). In short, this means that both concepts are opposed. In the end of the year 2017, the market came into big bull - everywhere we can saw positive advertising, and everyone thing, that it can increasing forever, but after that in a couple of days (hours), the market switch to the bear. Why was that happened? - like I wrote before, people thing, that price can go only up, but this isn't how its works. Some people have lot of BTC, and when we hit the big milestone - they start to sale - other people star panicking and price start dropping. In February, we first time hit the 5800 - the price was 3x lower than we were in bull market. Negative advertising, start - but what happened? - The price start again increasing, why?. Lot of people want to buy cheap BTC - and they buy it - price increase to almost 11500 and voala....people which buy BTC around 5800 start selling their positions - price start again decreasing - this is the bear marker - and it is continues to this day. And here is the question - can we switch back to the bulls?. Answer is yes. But when? - Nobody knows...or?. If we look at the week chart, we can see, that price around 6000 (from February - end of the first drop) was teste again in April, July, August, September, today 13.9.2018. When we look better, we can see, that level, which we hit in the February is pretty solid, and probably some people which have on this price level lot of money, don't want to let BTC go lower. This level, is also connected with middle of September 2017 - the time when BTC start rapidly increasing. Every time, when we hit this level, we a little bit bounce back, and after that we go again down. What do I want to say? we have here still big fight between Bulls - which hold price level around 6000 - 2 Green lines on the chart and bears, which always when people start buying let price drop. Again, if we look on the chart, we can see 3 red candles - I marked it with yellow ellipse. Maybe you think, what is interesting on it?. This 3 candles are almost the same - they are identical. What does it mean? Some group of people - also it can be only one person or exchange, let price drop - when have space in other words - when we hit the downtrend channel, we were all the time rejected from there, and we can't break it above. But if we look closely, we can see, that downtrend (up blue line) is day to day closer and closer to the big green support. If we look at the candles, what I marked, and check on the end of the downtrend and support - we will see, that space between downtrend and support is approx 800 points - the candles which I market is price drops with around 1100 points. What I want to say? If we expect that green support will hold, the another drop with this size cannot come. In other words - the red candle should switch to the long position - which will means that we will break downtrend - BTC will have again advertising - in the positive way and market start switching again to the bull state. So when this happened? I wrote 3 lines. The Black one is the most possible for me - in this scenario, I expecting , that first attempt of break up will failed, and we will stay in this price level (around 6000) for some weeks (that blue rectangle, is the place where should price stabilize)...big accumulation phase, after that we can go higher. The green line is also possible, but less than black. In this scenario, we will in about week or 2 breaking the downtrend - without accumulation phase. And the third scenario - the yellow - is the least possible - but who knows? In this scenario, should weekly candle close in green and come to around min 6800 level, if this happened, it is possible, that we can next break downtrend, also if this happened I'm expecting that we will break 7500 and possible 8000. After all - this isn't trading advice - this is just my theory! Good Luck to all, we are on the same boat! :-)
Comment:
Hello everyone, it looks like BULLS have bigger hand now, and market want to go up, some Alts make nice bounds, and make more than 10% gain ( most ETH 14%, DASH 12%, EOS 12%) but other also. BTC allredy hitting thirt time the 6500 -6550 resistance. If we stay above 6450, I think we can make it and go higher, but we should make it before weekend. If 6550 will be stable pass, the next resistance is around 6750.
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If we want to stay in "uptrand" the price should stay above the blue line
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In previos hours bears try to get price below 6400 - 6300. They are don't succeed, it looks like bulls have still stronger hand. In next hours I'm expecting test of 6750 resistance, which we can probably break - if this happend it will be good sign.
Comment:
So volumes again drop down, and price also. We can see another 300 points drop. Support around 6200 (first green line) should work.