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Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Despite more often than not symmetrical triangles to break in the direction following the larger trend, if you have been following BTC , you should be well aware that bitcoin doesn't comply with traditional trading. In that spirit of thoughts, ignoring all the FOMO and greed, I would entertain the idea of a triangle breakdown. In fact, I have noticed that happening in the past on several occasions, and we are all well aware that "History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes" – Mark Twain.

About the chart:

Red - symmetrical triangle support & resistance lines.

Orange - Upon a breakout, we can expect a move of approximately 10k (the distance between support & resistance upon the first touch of the trend line ). Hence, considering the triangle's tip is at about 35k, our target should be ether 26k ( bearish scenario) or 46k ( bullish scenario).

Blue Pattern - BTC /USD price trend for the period 25/May/2017 to 15/June/2017. That period was equivalent to the current one - first euphoric run surpassing previous bull run all-time high with more than 100%. You can see that the price follows quite a similar trend at the moment; therefore, we can expect similar results.

To sum up, although I expect a sharp drop in the following week or two, I would expect buyers to step in at that point and never visit that level again. I definitely will!
Trade active: It seems BTC broke the support line and confirmed it as resistance on the 1 & 4 h time frames. I am looking forward to the daily close for further confirmation.
Trade closed: target reached: As you can see, the hypothesis developed quite well. My orders at 30k have been filled. At the moment, we are looking at two potential scenarios. Case one: we drop further to approximately 27 500. If that's not the case, we can assume we are in descending triangle and expect to bounce to around 35k.

Comments

I like this analysis alot. I have a similar forecast but with historical data transposed adds creadence to the idea. very good work 👍
+1 Reply
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