Ok these are the 3 macro scenarios that I'm following that i think have the highest chances of manifesting for BTC this cycle.
- 2 of the 3 scenarios are based on Bob Loukas standard and left translated scenarios. For those price targets I've used the lower fib targets between 122k - 173k.
- For the third option I've used Plan B's stock to flow model and the targets are higher there, based on his average model target of 450k. For the stock to flow I've used the higher fib targets between 400k - 774k.
I personally am more aligned with Bob Loukas scenarios, simply because I cant imagine a 500k BTC this cycle. But i bet non of the previous tops were expected either. So i give this scenario like a 15% chance happening.
The timelines for these scenarios for the "Standard Bob Loukas" and "Stock to flow" scenarios are between April to October 2025. The timeline for the left translated cycle of Bob Loukas is between the June to December this year.
My personal plan is, if i see the left translated cycle starting to manifest this year meaning we see something crazy like 150k+ BTC i sell half of my crypto portfolio and i leave the other half for 2025. The second option is BTC consolidates at these levels for 3 - 6 months i just keep it all for 2025. I think that that is a sensible way to go about it.
- 2 of the 3 scenarios are based on Bob Loukas standard and left translated scenarios. For those price targets I've used the lower fib targets between 122k - 173k.
- For the third option I've used Plan B's stock to flow model and the targets are higher there, based on his average model target of 450k. For the stock to flow I've used the higher fib targets between 400k - 774k.
I personally am more aligned with Bob Loukas scenarios, simply because I cant imagine a 500k BTC this cycle. But i bet non of the previous tops were expected either. So i give this scenario like a 15% chance happening.
The timelines for these scenarios for the "Standard Bob Loukas" and "Stock to flow" scenarios are between April to October 2025. The timeline for the left translated cycle of Bob Loukas is between the June to December this year.
My personal plan is, if i see the left translated cycle starting to manifest this year meaning we see something crazy like 150k+ BTC i sell half of my crypto portfolio and i leave the other half for 2025. The second option is BTC consolidates at these levels for 3 - 6 months i just keep it all for 2025. I think that that is a sensible way to go about it.