Technical analysis update: Bitcoin (11th January 2022)

Bitcoin fell below 40 000 USD and reached our latest short-term price target. Additionally, it reached an oversold condition which made us reassess our views. We think a price bounce from its current level towards 46 000 USD is very likely. However, we are very cautious and expect the downtrend to resume after retracement is completed. Though, we are open to change our view as time goes forward. Our medium-term price target of 37 500 USD remains unchanged.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI reversed after reaching oversold condition; indeed, it performed a bullish crossover above 30 points. MACD started to flatten. However, it remains in the bearish area. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish zone too but it managed to reverse to the upside which is bullish. DM+ and DM- continue to show bearish conditions with ADX peaking. Overall, the daily time frame is less bearish than in the time of our last update on BTCUSD.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also shows 20-day Simple Moving Average (blue line). We expect price to retrace towards its 20-day SMA (as it is natural for price to retrace towards its moving average after it deviated too far from it) which coincides with price level near 46 000 USD.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is bearish too and we will observe it in the following weeks. We will watch whether it manages to break below 0 points into the bearish area. We expect such a phenomenon to be accompanied by resumption of the downtrend. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions while ADX continues to flatten. This suggests that price might end up trading within a certain range before a new trend commences (or prior bearish trend resumes). Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.

Support and resistance
Immediate support/resistance can be found at 41 967 USD. Support 1 sits at 39 573 USD and Support 2 lies at 37 300 USD. Major support level sits at 28 600 USD. Short-term resistance lies at 45 478 USD. Resistance 1 lies at 48 834 USD and Resistance 2 sits at 52 956 USD.

Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.

Trade active:

BTCUSD failed to fully retrace towards its 20-day SMA. We expect resumption of selling pressure.

Trade active:

We change medium-term price target to short-term.