Previous post was about BTCUSD being in a tight range, with very unusually low volatility. With comparison to previous low volume and low volatility periods, it typically spiked down, but this time BTCUSD spiked up instead.
So, is this the end of the bear market and it is ready for rock and roll rally up to record six-figures?
Taking the long term view, in weekly chart, the application of the MACD (and its crossovers) appeared correlated, but there were a couple of misses while most hit. So, another technical indicator, a modified volume divergence is used (and displayed here). With this chart going back to 2014, the times that the VolDiv indicator (when green and) crosses over the zero line are marked. There were three previous instances in 2015, 2019, 2020 that clearly marked the end of the bear market and, importantly, the start of a new bull market. An odd instance worth mentioning is in May 2017, where the VolDiv indicator crossed over its moving average, which had an extended bull run. So, the VolDiv needs to crossover the zero line, and price also appears to align in a (white) trendline break out.
At the the current time, the excitement of the BTCUSD (and other alt coins) surge in the recent week may or may not be the end of the bear market. But according to this technical model, it appears that it is not quite ready or ripe for the start of a bull run; and by projection, and estimated 5-6 weeks may open a the next window.
Much chatter out there now, and yes, it can be very exciting and promising. However, using this rather unique, simply basic technical indicator, it shows how to use good tools to model and keep a discipline in engagement. So, until it flags up a good to go, might have to be patient on pressing that button...
Meanwhile, just loking forward to mid December 2022.
Revisit again.
So, is this the end of the bear market and it is ready for rock and roll rally up to record six-figures?
Taking the long term view, in weekly chart, the application of the MACD (and its crossovers) appeared correlated, but there were a couple of misses while most hit. So, another technical indicator, a modified volume divergence is used (and displayed here). With this chart going back to 2014, the times that the VolDiv indicator (when green and) crosses over the zero line are marked. There were three previous instances in 2015, 2019, 2020 that clearly marked the end of the bear market and, importantly, the start of a new bull market. An odd instance worth mentioning is in May 2017, where the VolDiv indicator crossed over its moving average, which had an extended bull run. So, the VolDiv needs to crossover the zero line, and price also appears to align in a (white) trendline break out.
At the the current time, the excitement of the BTCUSD (and other alt coins) surge in the recent week may or may not be the end of the bear market. But according to this technical model, it appears that it is not quite ready or ripe for the start of a bull run; and by projection, and estimated 5-6 weeks may open a the next window.
Much chatter out there now, and yes, it can be very exciting and promising. However, using this rather unique, simply basic technical indicator, it shows how to use good tools to model and keep a discipline in engagement. So, until it flags up a good to go, might have to be patient on pressing that button...
Meanwhile, just loking forward to mid December 2022.
Revisit again.
