Since its inception, Bitcoin's value has ascended between a logarithmic support and resistance curve. It has done this in cyclical fashion, with sudden parabolic run-ups followed by massive draw-downs; all while retaining its long term trend.
In December 2017, the 2 year long bull run came to a close as the long term resistance curve was touched at nearly 20k. Following this, it went on a year long bearish collapse in which prices fell to just over 3000 before support was found.
The rise seen in the price of BTC since April '19 has been significant enough to indicate that it is not a mere bull trap in a bear market. Rather, a new, parabolic bull run is indisputably beginning.
So far, we have seen 3 rapid increases and 3 pullbacks that have established the parabolic rise within a logarithmic channel. This momentum seems to follow the following pattern:
1. A 20 day rise to a new YTD high at the top of the price channel
2. A 10 day pullback to the middle of the channel
3. A 10 day recovery that retests the previously established high
4. A 10 day drop back to the relative low marking the bottom of the channel
This pattern has repeated 3 times since the beginning of the rally and is due to repeat again beginning July 19th. The next run should see prices reach the previous all-time high of 20k around the beginning of August.
If the cycle keeps repeating along this parabolic channel there will be 2 more pullbacks and runs after that, as illustrated in the graph. At that point, in mid-November, the price of Bitcoin will top 50k, hitting the top of the long term resistance curve.
I do not expect the value to continue increasing after that, and it is likely that another bear market will emerge that will send the price back down to the 10k range.
For these reasons, I am buying and current prices and will not sell my core position until the long term resistance curve is approached.
In December 2017, the 2 year long bull run came to a close as the long term resistance curve was touched at nearly 20k. Following this, it went on a year long bearish collapse in which prices fell to just over 3000 before support was found.
The rise seen in the price of BTC since April '19 has been significant enough to indicate that it is not a mere bull trap in a bear market. Rather, a new, parabolic bull run is indisputably beginning.
So far, we have seen 3 rapid increases and 3 pullbacks that have established the parabolic rise within a logarithmic channel. This momentum seems to follow the following pattern:
1. A 20 day rise to a new YTD high at the top of the price channel
2. A 10 day pullback to the middle of the channel
3. A 10 day recovery that retests the previously established high
4. A 10 day drop back to the relative low marking the bottom of the channel
This pattern has repeated 3 times since the beginning of the rally and is due to repeat again beginning July 19th. The next run should see prices reach the previous all-time high of 20k around the beginning of August.
If the cycle keeps repeating along this parabolic channel there will be 2 more pullbacks and runs after that, as illustrated in the graph. At that point, in mid-November, the price of Bitcoin will top 50k, hitting the top of the long term resistance curve.
I do not expect the value to continue increasing after that, and it is likely that another bear market will emerge that will send the price back down to the 10k range.
For these reasons, I am buying and current prices and will not sell my core position until the long term resistance curve is approached.