Dear TV friends.
Most of those following me will know I have been showing this path for over 1 month. I've adjusted here and there, but the perspective remains the same. For those new followers, please go and look at my previous ideas and please don't forget to like the idea, if you agree!
I'm going to stick my neck out and say waves do not fail, at least not very often. The challenge with waves is interpreting them. Is that little rally considered a wave, or is it just noise? I believe most of the confusion comes when we mix a wave from one time frame (say one that counts on the 15 min chart) with another (one that is much larger on the 4h or 1 day chart). You see a grand wave on the 1 day, will be made up of smaller impulse and correction waves. Generally when I'm on a time frame, I like to see that the waves I count are about the same magnitude of a previously completed wave.
OK so now for some TA, based on of course EW theory, as well as Fibo levels and Ichi Clouds.
You will see two grand waves, one in Red and one in Blue. The Red one paints a BEARISH scenario, and the Blue one a BULLISH scenario. To summarize (but see previous ideas for more detail), the red wave assumes from the 20k high we started a triangle wave, and now we are forming the final wave E to the rock bottom price of BTC going forward. The blue wave assumes we completed a running flat ABC correction to 6.5k, and we aren't going there again ... and in fact we started wave 1 of a grand impulse from 6.5k to 10k, and this is a normal retracement wave 2. Wave 3 would therefore be an exciting bull run up. Hard to believe in this bear market, eh? But don't forget how less than 10 days ago we were in full bull ... and many believing we could go to 11.7k.
So remember I said, grand waves are made up of smaller waves. The GOLD waves I show are the waves that forecast the RED grand wave, and the PURPLE waves I show are the waves that forecast the BLUE grand wave. OK, so here's how I see things possibly going:
BULLISH SCENARIO (BLUE/PURPLE). This assumes we have completed an impulse wave down from 10k to 7.9k) and we are done with Blue Grand Wave 2 ... that means Wave 3 is starting, and if that is the case ... you probably don't want to miss it. It's possible that the impulse still has a little way to go to 7.7/7.8k, as I know many people are waiting for that price point.
BEARISH SCENARIO (RED/GOLD). This assumes those bumps up and down on the purple wave is just noise, and BTC has only completed a long gold "a" wave now (from 10k to 7.9k maybe down to 7.8k). That Wave A correction is made up of a smaller impulse wave (the purple one). A rally can be expected to form the gold "b" wave. This will eventually stall and start the gold "c" wave. That would take us down to the bottom of the triangle we have tested at 6k and 6.5k ... and at the moment the target is 6.9k - 7.0k (see bold green trend line at bottom). But WAIT, there might be more! Wave E's often extend ... and what if the golden ABC correction is actually a golden impulse wave (5 waves)??? Well then, we could go much lower. The gold impulse could go, as label, from (i-2) to (ii-2) to (iii-2) to (iv-2) to (v-2) and take us down to where I see good support at 5.4k! Note that (i-2), (ii-2), and (iii-2) are the same as the gold ABC, with a continued wave iv and v.
So what do we watch out for? Well if this is the Blue Wave, you don't want to miss out on that bull run. So the question for me is how high will BTC climb in the next rally? If it cracks 9k, probability goes up (but still not guaranteed)! If it fails, we confirm the red scenario, and then the question is how low? I have two levels in mind 6.9k and 5.4k. Again, you probably don't want to miss out on the bull action which could follow!
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential scenario!
Do not make investment decisions with this information. For educational purposes only.
Most of those following me will know I have been showing this path for over 1 month. I've adjusted here and there, but the perspective remains the same. For those new followers, please go and look at my previous ideas and please don't forget to like the idea, if you agree!
I'm going to stick my neck out and say waves do not fail, at least not very often. The challenge with waves is interpreting them. Is that little rally considered a wave, or is it just noise? I believe most of the confusion comes when we mix a wave from one time frame (say one that counts on the 15 min chart) with another (one that is much larger on the 4h or 1 day chart). You see a grand wave on the 1 day, will be made up of smaller impulse and correction waves. Generally when I'm on a time frame, I like to see that the waves I count are about the same magnitude of a previously completed wave.
OK so now for some TA, based on of course EW theory, as well as Fibo levels and Ichi Clouds.
You will see two grand waves, one in Red and one in Blue. The Red one paints a BEARISH scenario, and the Blue one a BULLISH scenario. To summarize (but see previous ideas for more detail), the red wave assumes from the 20k high we started a triangle wave, and now we are forming the final wave E to the rock bottom price of BTC going forward. The blue wave assumes we completed a running flat ABC correction to 6.5k, and we aren't going there again ... and in fact we started wave 1 of a grand impulse from 6.5k to 10k, and this is a normal retracement wave 2. Wave 3 would therefore be an exciting bull run up. Hard to believe in this bear market, eh? But don't forget how less than 10 days ago we were in full bull ... and many believing we could go to 11.7k.
So remember I said, grand waves are made up of smaller waves. The GOLD waves I show are the waves that forecast the RED grand wave, and the PURPLE waves I show are the waves that forecast the BLUE grand wave. OK, so here's how I see things possibly going:
BULLISH SCENARIO (BLUE/PURPLE). This assumes we have completed an impulse wave down from 10k to 7.9k) and we are done with Blue Grand Wave 2 ... that means Wave 3 is starting, and if that is the case ... you probably don't want to miss it. It's possible that the impulse still has a little way to go to 7.7/7.8k, as I know many people are waiting for that price point.
BEARISH SCENARIO (RED/GOLD). This assumes those bumps up and down on the purple wave is just noise, and BTC has only completed a long gold "a" wave now (from 10k to 7.9k maybe down to 7.8k). That Wave A correction is made up of a smaller impulse wave (the purple one). A rally can be expected to form the gold "b" wave. This will eventually stall and start the gold "c" wave. That would take us down to the bottom of the triangle we have tested at 6k and 6.5k ... and at the moment the target is 6.9k - 7.0k (see bold green trend line at bottom). But WAIT, there might be more! Wave E's often extend ... and what if the golden ABC correction is actually a golden impulse wave (5 waves)??? Well then, we could go much lower. The gold impulse could go, as label, from (i-2) to (ii-2) to (iii-2) to (iv-2) to (v-2) and take us down to where I see good support at 5.4k! Note that (i-2), (ii-2), and (iii-2) are the same as the gold ABC, with a continued wave iv and v.
So what do we watch out for? Well if this is the Blue Wave, you don't want to miss out on that bull run. So the question for me is how high will BTC climb in the next rally? If it cracks 9k, probability goes up (but still not guaranteed)! If it fails, we confirm the red scenario, and then the question is how low? I have two levels in mind 6.9k and 5.4k. Again, you probably don't want to miss out on the bull action which could follow!
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential scenario!
Do not make investment decisions with this information. For educational purposes only.