The first BTC futures product launches later today and the price of BTC is in flux. Even without this new market variable the market is at a crossroads: The 1 month VWAP (green line in the center) provided support in this most recent cooldown, but the 12 hour and 1 day MACD remain overbought, and the uncertainty surrounding futures could elongate this sideways/downward cycle. A further retrace would be a healthy move for this unbelievably bullish market, and we *could* retest ~$10k or lower without any risk of reversing the overall bullish trend. That said, in a market like this, I wouldn't sleep holding cash. In a market this strong the MACD could be meaningless.
I'd consider a downward retest of the first and second deviations of the 1 month VWAP (light blue and red lines) strong buy signals provided we don't see a massive selloff that could take us down further (watch the volume). Keep in mind that we last retested the low end of the 3rd standard deviation of the 1 month VWAP at ~$5,600 before launching this ongoing uptrend (in other words a push below $10k isn’t in and of itself a sign that the overall bullish trend is reversing). If the pop in 2013 is any indication, we won’t be able to miss the signs of a true threat to the overall bullish trend.
I'd consider a downward retest of the first and second deviations of the 1 month VWAP (light blue and red lines) strong buy signals provided we don't see a massive selloff that could take us down further (watch the volume). Keep in mind that we last retested the low end of the 3rd standard deviation of the 1 month VWAP at ~$5,600 before launching this ongoing uptrend (in other words a push below $10k isn’t in and of itself a sign that the overall bullish trend is reversing). If the pop in 2013 is any indication, we won’t be able to miss the signs of a true threat to the overall bullish trend.