BTCUSD - Two contradicting scenarios. Bitcoin and the indecision
Hello, The chart is busy but I will try to explain my mind. I have reviewed the chart carefully and this is what I came up with.
There are two plausible scenarios:
1. This scenario assumes that the drop in BTC prices were a correction and Elliot waves are drawn in ABC pattern during that period. Then, Wave 1 (blue) starts, followed by wave 2 to the downside (blue) and we are now forming wave 3. Obviously, this is the Bullish Scenario. Price can drop a little today and tomorrow but should not go below $10500. This Scenario is supported by the small head and shoulder pattern (yellow) which almost formed now and waiting to break above the neckline (red line) with volume. The price projection from the inverse H&S pattern should send the price to complete wave 3 of Elliot waves. From there wave 4 and wave 5 should send us up to the 18Ks before correction. This will create a huge Inverse head and shoulder pattern (Green) and new 5-3 waves will take the price to the 26Ks.
Sounds Awesome but,
2. Scenario two is based on the Elliot waves marked in red which is the original one that I drew a few days ago. In this scenario, we are currently forming wave 5 which, if correct, will send the price down to the 2000s or less. There is an ascending wedge formed during the last few days. If the price break below that support of the wedge, it will go down to around $9500. This will form a double top pattern and the price will go lower entering the downtrend channel again. That would be a very bearish signal and the price will fluctuate downwards to form wave 5 (It would be a diagonal). I forgot to mention that if today's candle closed bearish, There be downtrend continuation convergence on MACD and RSI (Pink lines).
That's about it. I would like to hear your opinions, comments, suggestions ...etc.
There are two plausible scenarios:
1. This scenario assumes that the drop in BTC prices were a correction and Elliot waves are drawn in ABC pattern during that period. Then, Wave 1 (blue) starts, followed by wave 2 to the downside (blue) and we are now forming wave 3. Obviously, this is the Bullish Scenario. Price can drop a little today and tomorrow but should not go below $10500. This Scenario is supported by the small head and shoulder pattern (yellow) which almost formed now and waiting to break above the neckline (red line) with volume. The price projection from the inverse H&S pattern should send the price to complete wave 3 of Elliot waves. From there wave 4 and wave 5 should send us up to the 18Ks before correction. This will create a huge Inverse head and shoulder pattern (Green) and new 5-3 waves will take the price to the 26Ks.
Sounds Awesome but,
2. Scenario two is based on the Elliot waves marked in red which is the original one that I drew a few days ago. In this scenario, we are currently forming wave 5 which, if correct, will send the price down to the 2000s or less. There is an ascending wedge formed during the last few days. If the price break below that support of the wedge, it will go down to around $9500. This will form a double top pattern and the price will go lower entering the downtrend channel again. That would be a very bearish signal and the price will fluctuate downwards to form wave 5 (It would be a diagonal). I forgot to mention that if today's candle closed bearish, There be downtrend continuation convergence on MACD and RSI (Pink lines).
That's about it. I would like to hear your opinions, comments, suggestions ...etc.
Comment:
Price is above the neckline now BUT WHERE IS THE VOLUME
Comment:
3 Support lines need to be broken to confirm the continuation of the downtrend:
1. The previous upper border of the channel resistance (yellow line)
2. The green previous support line
3. 200MA
If all broken, BTCUSD will probably fall back to 5000-6000 range.
1. The previous upper border of the channel resistance (yellow line)
2. The green previous support line
3. 200MA
If all broken, BTCUSD will probably fall back to 5000-6000 range.