Paul_Varcoe

BTC impulsive or not? FOMO much? WTH should I do? Buy?

Long
Paul_Varcoe Updated   
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
There will be loads of you who have followed me for a while. Maybe you think I've been wrong?
I know that I didn't start buying till 32k, and I DCA'd down to 21.

For the record, I have NEVER shorted Bitcoin.

On the way up I sold 28 and 32, so I am long half my BTC allocation from 23 on average. I'm happy with that. Now what? I could sell now for 60% profit (divided by 2).

Let's look at the evidence. People are saying this is impulsive. I say: show me an Elliott wave. I have tried to draw one on the weekly, see the chart.

I cannot see (even on this large scale) how the fractal wave inside the yellow 2-3 would work.
If the yellow wave IS true, then the top looks like 48-ish, which feels like the dampest squib ever.

More evidence: The Commitment of Traders (CoT) report story is that the professionals are net shorter than they have ever been. They are not wrong often. You can see the indicator in the chart at the bottom. If you want this indicator go to our website and ask.
Personally this a very convincing piece of evidence. Better even than the corrective style of price action.

Also. don't forget that Bitcoin is now an institutional instrument, and out of all the big ones it is the easiest to manipulate, see:

It's isn't going to make a new high without the big boys being long. They are NOT long. In fact they are still selling.

For all those that think it's going to $1,000,000 or some other such borrox, do some maths.

There are 19.5m BTC. It needs to go up $962,000, so to get to $1,000,000 a coin, its market cap needs to go up by $18tn. It's not the same as when it went from 1k to 69k. That was an increase of only $1.2tn. It's unimaginable that another 18tn will be invested any time soon.

I restate in case you haven't followed me or my partner Mayfair_Ventures : We are BULLISH on Bitcoin. This just isn't the run we want to be involved in.

The last of my BTC is for sale at $40,379. I will happily buy them all back sub 25k. My target is actually 21k. I'm waiting for 21K , the CoT to go positive, and for the news to be filled with "Death of Crypto" stories.

I am happy with my logic, thanks.
Comment:
I sold me last BTC. Happy to watch from the side-lines.

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