Bitcoin - still looks bearish. Looking for confirmation
Hi everyone,
From my previous posts:
You might now how much I love technology behind smart contracts, and I think ETH, or an ETH-like technology has huge potential to bring change to the future of finance.
BUT, investing in something should not be a gamble, just because some serious looking influencer with a non-real name tells you so! There may or may not be multiple FRAUD's in this "market" right now, since the system allows it unfortunately, and people telling you the same buy story again and again might be part of it.
Two from Warren Buffet's good advices I strictly follow:
- Invest only in things that you know well (blockchain technology is something I know well and I'm thinking investment in other's work seriously)
- Know what you buy (seriously, investigating the fundamentals deeply is very important). Warren Buffet went through each line in the booking, I can't do it with crypto right now :(
Know, here's my opinion, fundamentally, analyzing BTC.
Fundamentally:
- The fundamentals are very challengable at the moment! BTC price is only made MAXIMUM of 25% (but realistic it might be ~ 10% as well) from retail money, and the rest is up to manipulation.
- Manipulation, that is not trackable, you can not say that this or that hedge was playing for something. And this part is really dark.
So I'm out of thinking any long positions (actually holding and inversing any crypto) until Gary Gensler has finished his jobs here. He will, take that guy seriously, and I think his goals are a good thing for investors, and the technology, long term. Security comes above everything, be it technology or finance. Now SEC's attempts are backed by IMF, US, European and Japanese central banks, and the Biden government.
But for short-mid term, let's see what comes up to the surface and what they will bring to this "market".
Technically:
- There is clearly a distribution going on (check perpetual swaps), still might be a pullback to near 0.786 after the 64k-28k drop.
- The high price, low volume setup is still very very strange, and can invalidate any major formation e.g. cup & handle or inverse H&S seen lately. Don't judge just by looking at price action.
- Seems like a bubble ready to pop, or someone with the power to do so might grow it a bit more (maybe to the 100k moon? :) ) before it collapses.
What you can see on my chart, is an ascending broadening wedge, within the macro ascending channel since July 20, which (for now) is still inside a more macro descending channel fitting to Jan 9, Apr. 23 tops as low and high points.
So both of the following can happen, my bearish bias leans me towards the second (2):
What might come next:
1) Price touches the broadening wedge bottom, and goes up. You might call this move parabolic, I call it a balloon :)
2) Price falls out from the broadening wedge, and targets 40k again.
I wait for confirmation, and might enter a short position in the second case, (after fallen out from wedge and re-tested!), with:
- SL at price back to wedge
- TP managed manually for higher targets (because 50k levels, 46k level as a possible turnover)
- Auto TP: 41,5k
Cheers,
Antonio
From my previous posts:
You might now how much I love technology behind smart contracts, and I think ETH, or an ETH-like technology has huge potential to bring change to the future of finance.
BUT, investing in something should not be a gamble, just because some serious looking influencer with a non-real name tells you so! There may or may not be multiple FRAUD's in this "market" right now, since the system allows it unfortunately, and people telling you the same buy story again and again might be part of it.
Two from Warren Buffet's good advices I strictly follow:
- Invest only in things that you know well (blockchain technology is something I know well and I'm thinking investment in other's work seriously)
- Know what you buy (seriously, investigating the fundamentals deeply is very important). Warren Buffet went through each line in the booking, I can't do it with crypto right now :(
Know, here's my opinion, fundamentally, analyzing BTC.
Fundamentally:
- The fundamentals are very challengable at the moment! BTC price is only made MAXIMUM of 25% (but realistic it might be ~ 10% as well) from retail money, and the rest is up to manipulation.
- Manipulation, that is not trackable, you can not say that this or that hedge was playing for something. And this part is really dark.
So I'm out of thinking any long positions (actually holding and inversing any crypto) until Gary Gensler has finished his jobs here. He will, take that guy seriously, and I think his goals are a good thing for investors, and the technology, long term. Security comes above everything, be it technology or finance. Now SEC's attempts are backed by IMF, US, European and Japanese central banks, and the Biden government.
But for short-mid term, let's see what comes up to the surface and what they will bring to this "market".
Technically:
- There is clearly a distribution going on (check perpetual swaps), still might be a pullback to near 0.786 after the 64k-28k drop.
- The high price, low volume setup is still very very strange, and can invalidate any major formation e.g. cup & handle or inverse H&S seen lately. Don't judge just by looking at price action.
- Seems like a bubble ready to pop, or someone with the power to do so might grow it a bit more (maybe to the 100k moon? :) ) before it collapses.
What you can see on my chart, is an ascending broadening wedge, within the macro ascending channel since July 20, which (for now) is still inside a more macro descending channel fitting to Jan 9, Apr. 23 tops as low and high points.
So both of the following can happen, my bearish bias leans me towards the second (2):
What might come next:
1) Price touches the broadening wedge bottom, and goes up. You might call this move parabolic, I call it a balloon :)
2) Price falls out from the broadening wedge, and targets 40k again.
I wait for confirmation, and might enter a short position in the second case, (after fallen out from wedge and re-tested!), with:
- SL at price back to wedge
- TP managed manually for higher targets (because 50k levels, 46k level as a possible turnover)
- Auto TP: 41,5k
Cheers,
Antonio
Comment:
The price is testing the line (actually it's below it), and situation on distribution is not changed. Seems like the bearish scenario will be applicable.
I'm doing it :)
Opening short @ 54700.
SL: 55200 (~1-2% loss to allow) for now, can go a bit higher if wedge line crosses it and still testing from the bottom. Not more than 3% loss will be taken!
Ascending widening wedge breakout target: 39500.
My TP levels:
Auto TP: 41500
Manual TP levels: 51200, 48200, 44700 (depending on the data and chart at those levels. I'm placing levels usually ~$500 above the expected price bottoms when shorting.)
I'm doing it :)
Opening short @ 54700.
SL: 55200 (~1-2% loss to allow) for now, can go a bit higher if wedge line crosses it and still testing from the bottom. Not more than 3% loss will be taken!
Ascending widening wedge breakout target: 39500.
My TP levels:
Auto TP: 41500
Manual TP levels: 51200, 48200, 44700 (depending on the data and chart at those levels. I'm placing levels usually ~$500 above the expected price bottoms when shorting.)
Comment:
SL was a bit calculated in haste, looking at BTC's moves in a down path, 55400 is very possible. Placing SL @ 55500, which is still only 1.5% loss if hit.
Cheers, will update you how this went.
Cheers, will update you how this went.
Comment:
SL hit, trade closed.
Sorry to update slowly, it doesn't matter how many times I hear Arnie saying "sleep faster", I can't :D
So it was a fake out, I lost the 1.5%, of the 20% put in to the trade, of the 20% funds I got for crypto. 1/10 that I won on shorting at 51.6k, and an amount that I can very much afford to lose, for short-term high R:R possibility.
If someone reads me, keep risk management in mind, very important!
Why did I short at first breakout signs, before confirmation? To catch the reward in case of a flash crash, which I would have slept over :)
Situation did not change about "distrubution", let's check the 57k-58k area carefully.
Sorry to update slowly, it doesn't matter how many times I hear Arnie saying "sleep faster", I can't :D
So it was a fake out, I lost the 1.5%, of the 20% put in to the trade, of the 20% funds I got for crypto. 1/10 that I won on shorting at 51.6k, and an amount that I can very much afford to lose, for short-term high R:R possibility.
If someone reads me, keep risk management in mind, very important!
Why did I short at first breakout signs, before confirmation? To catch the reward in case of a flash crash, which I would have slept over :)
Situation did not change about "distrubution", let's check the 57k-58k area carefully.
Comment:
Comment:
A local top at 0.786 level. Let's see what happens from here, continuation, or big fall, as in 2018 Jan. ?
jumping now