Ever since Bitcoin was created we have seen the same chart pattern repeat. The 4 year cycle... this cycle has repeated it self consistently since 2014, but will this last?
right now i think bitcoin is looking really bullish in a technical and fundamental standpoint. Why? we are seeing many investors coming into the crypto/nft space ever since covid. i think this space will keep on growing for awhile and we will see history be made while we are at it.
here is a chart showing the number of new crypto investors:
twitter.com/RaoulGMI...136689053699/photo/1
This chart shows that crypto is doing much greater than how the internet was doing back when it was introduced. The crypto space is growing at a record pace (113% per year) this could slow down in the future but it is still estimated that there will be over 4 billion crypto users in 2030. how is this possible? this is possible because as the crypto space develops we are seeing big investors and countries that are adopting or joining in the crypto space. we've seen investors like Barry Silbert (founder of the Digital currency group), Micheal Saylor (co founder of Microstrategy), Winkelvoss twins (early bitcoin investors), Elon Musk(founder of Tesla,Boring company, and Space X) and Micheal Novogratz (former hedge fund manager and goldman sachs partner)
s3.cointelegraph.com...f90062a8ef3f448.jpeg
this chart here shows some of the publicly traded companies that own bitcoin. Grayscale owns almost 500,000 bitcoin putting their position at almost 20 billion dollars! I do think that this is just the start for bitcoin and i think that we will see bigger companies like Amazon, Apple, walmart, etc start to accept or hold bitcoin. we saw happened when Tesla announced that they will be accepting bitcoin...
price jumped over 25% in 1 day after the announcement. if we see bigger companies in the future start holding bitcoin/accepting bitcoin i think we will see even larger spikes.
Even though we are seeing big investors and companies jump into bitcoin we are also seeing entire countries starting to accept bitcoin and make it a legal currency!
we can see here that the bitcoin price did drop over 18% after the Bitcoin Law took place in El Salvador. i do not think that this will be the case in the future if more countries start accepting bitcoin.
Do i think bitcoin will be legal tender in other countries? yes and no. i do believe that bitcoin will become legal tender in countries that a smaller, third world, or countries with hyperinflation.
i dont think we will see bitcoin reach big countries like America, China, Or Russia.
i say this because larger country like the US want to have as much power. There is a reason why politicians like Trump dont like crypto. bigger politicians want to keep the dollar at the top since that's how america and americans think, they want to be at the top.
America left the gold standard for a reason.... the left the gold standard so the government and the fed could have as much power over the dollar as they can. Leaving the gold standard made it easy for the government to print and much money as they want which could be bad for Americas future and i talked in the DXY section.
Although i dont think America will switch to bitcoin they do allow for it to be traded and sold. i do think America could someday shut down Bitcoin trading in the future (i will talk about this in a bit)
Bullish scenario:
Although i think we will see a black swan even in the near future i do think we will see bitcoin thrive for another 10 years or so.
1. good hedge against inflation
as you can see on this chart historically bitcoin does end up going up every time the dollar drops. right now we are seeing the dollar rise and we will rise for a bit more before we drop and bitcoin continues to a possible 500k target this year.
here is another chart of DXY:
overall i do see the dollar falling dramatically over the years meaning bitcoin is looking really bullish. (short term looking bearish. i will talk about this in the bearish scenario).
2. 4 year cycle:
like i said in the beginning, we are still in this 4 year cycle/channel. i do believe we will see it have a few more years of historic moves before we get a possible break in the cycle.
as you can see on this chart price is about to pass a fib time zone (we will cross mid June) i think that we will start our bull market once we cross this level. why do i say this? i think we will go into a bull cycle since we are following a bull/bear market pattern. on the chart you can see that the first time we crossed we went into a bear market... after we crossed it again we went into a bull market... and when we crossed it again we went into a bear market. if we continue the same pattern i do believe that starting june and the rest of 2022 will be extremely bullish for bitcoin.
3. companies and investors jumping into bitcoin:
spendmenot.com/wp-co...DATE-1-1991x2048.png
this chart here shows the companies that accept bitcoin for products and services like subscriptions. these companies listed aren't the biggest out there but everything starts of small. i think once we see Tesla start to accept crypto (as well as other bigger companies) we will see bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole start to pump up. i do think that it is possible that we see this Q3 and Q4 of 2022.
4. low supply and lost supply:
content.fortune...st_bitcoins.png?resize=750...
this chart here shows the amount of bitcoin that is lost. it is estimated that 2million - 3 million bitcoins are lost. 3 million coins is 14% of bitcoins total supply! this makes the supply lower which could lead demand. demand could also go up due to more investors and companies endorsing crypto and bitcoin. there is almost 50 million millionaires in the world and 21 million bitcoin. is this a good or bad thing? i think this will be good for the short term(10 years) but bad in the long term..(i will talk about it in the bearish scenario)
Bearish/short term scenario:
1. bitcoin is looking bearish in the short term:
this chart is showing that bitcoin is forming a double top + a heads and shoulders... these 2 patterns are quite bearish and it could send prices falling in the upcoming months.
if you measure the target of the H&S it would bring us to 16k..
other times i have post talking about bitcoin coming down to 30k since it is a strong level but with this recent bounce (dead cat bounce) i think it will go lower....
here are some of the charts i have posted:
as you can see here i talk about the heads and shoulder patterns and support and resistance. right now we are pushing up and i do think that we will push up a bit more before we end up dropping to 20k-16k.
here are some of the charts showing we could drop a lot more:
on this chart it is showing you that the 47k level is where a lot of bearish OB is at which could cause it to drop.... you also see 2 fib lines on this chart. these fib lines could cause us to pump and crash in march. the first line is on March 1st and the other is on March 24th. i think the one of the 24th will cause to go down due to bearish activity and possible short term dollar rise. we also see fib circles on this chart, these fib circles can predict massive moves in the market and i think that these rings can be considered as "crash rings" since last time price crossed them/broke them prices dropped... i think that we will break it again causing prices to drop hard.
this chart shows you more rings + resistance levels. on this chart you can see that every time we cross a ring we end up dropping...on February 10th we saw price touch one of these rings which resulted in price falling. i do think markets will push up after we hit 38.7K (strong support level). after we hit 38.7k i do think we will break the circle and top out at 47k (a resistance level, shown on chart) as is said above, 47k is also a level for bearish OB so i think that its looking perfect for a top at 47k
2. Interest rates and Dollar rise(short term)
on this chart you can see bitcoin and interest rates. you can see once interest rates stay flat bitcoin usually starts to move up but once interest rates move markets start crashing. The fed is planning on raising interest rates in march which could spook the markets temporarily. i think this will be another factor on why bitcoin will crash to 20k-16k in march.
this chart shows the dollar and bitcoin. as you can see, bitcoin is currently in a down trend and the dollar is in a uptrend. i think the dollar still has a little room to go up which will cause bitcoin to go down
3. Smart money
www.benzinga.com/fil...8-24_at_15.00.19.png
link to website for chart ---> academy.glassnode.co...ent-output-age-bands
over the past week or so we have seen "smart money" start taking profits from the bitcoin market. what is "smart money"? its different for everyone but i see smart money as big investors/firms and long term holders. in this case, we will be looking at the long term holders (5-7 years). every time we have a spike showing that long term holders pull out of the markets it usually makes the entire bitcoin market drop. right now we are seeing a spike in "smart money" leaving the markets which could lead to a short term correction the upcoming month.
Satoshi Nakamoto:
a huge con about bitcoin is that its creator(s) is unknown. who is satoshi? is it 1 person, 5 dude in a basement, the government, china, russia, the us? it seems people are putting money into this satoshi guy without knowing anything about him. why did he suddenly disappear? does he know bitcoins future could be in trouble?
before we do talk about the black swan even i do want to talk about how ETH could one day take over BTC.
i believe that one day eth will over take bitcoin in the biggest crypto. why do i think this? this is why:
1. Unlike bitcoin... which was created to be an alternative payment system that would operate free of governments... eth was enabled to deploy smart contracts and dApps to be built and run without downtime, fraud,control, or interference from a third party or government.
Eth offers way much more than bitcoin. tokens and smart contracts like NFTS can be created on the ETH blockchain.
Eth has also gained widespread adoption since it was released and is still emerging in the defi space.
2. although eth was not created to be an alternative to fiat like bitcoin it is still used around the world to make payments and is also used as a store of value and collateral.
the current bitcoin transactions per second is 4.6 while eth does 15-45 a second. i do think companies will switch to eth since it is faster and will be even faster with eth 2.0
3. eth outperforming bitcoin:
gaming,nfts,and technology has pushed eths price to skyrocket up 510% in 2021 compared to bitcoins 93%.
in 2020 eths market cap was about one tenth of bitcoins but in 2021 eth is about half of bitcoins market cap.
i.imgur.com/Vx7v4Z0.jpg
s.yimg.com/ny/api/re...af41bc46c0a5f8835984
these 2 charts show you the growth of bitcoin and eth over the years. if eth continues to get this annual gains i think it will surpass bitcoin within 5 years.
with the NFT space growing i do think that ETH will surpass bitcoin quickly.
4. Eth 2.0:
Both bitcoin and Eth currently use a PoW system (proof of work) but in 2022-2023 eth will switch to a PoS system (proof of stake)
this update will make eth more scalable, secure, and sustainable. Bitcoins PoW system is garbage compared to this since PoW uses so much energy. the PoS system substitutes computational power with staking making eth use less energy. this system will also replace miners with validators who stake their eth.
Eth 2.0 will also reduce gas fees significantly making it more scalable and easier for people to access DeFi services.
Bitcoin uses around 177.43 TWh of electricity yearly while eth uses around 79.69 TWh yearly but with eth 2.0 eths energy consumption will drop significantly.
i do believe that bitcoins energy consumption will be the end of bitcoin.
The Black Swan Event:
i believe that bitcoin will see a black swan even in 2028. i think this for many reasons:
1. Energy consumption:
bitcoin uses enough energy in 1 transaction to power up a typical American home for six weeks (1,173 kilowat hours of electricity). this number is bad enough and will continue to increase over the years.
bitcoin uses more energy than sweden,ukraine,norway,and argentina.
www.ft.com/__or...3a-standard.png?dpr=1&...
also, Bitcoin does end up using about 30% of fossil fuel to produce energy (40-70% is renewable energy) although it does use renewable energy experts do say that "using renewable energy to power bitcoins mining means it won't be available to power a home, factory, or electric car" this means that if we want to continue mining bitcoin we would have to let homes and factories to stock running.
do you think governments will allow this? i dont think so. if bitcoin uses so much energy (it will increase in the future) it will make governments take action against mining and bitcoin like China.
I think ETH will overtake bitcoin due to its energy consumption.
also, bitcoin mining is getting to expensive. before bitcoin was huge you could mine bitcoin on your small computer but now you need big fancy machines. this means its getting more expensive to mine bitcoin. not just that.... bitcoin mining is getting taken over by big corporations and investors. Satoshi made bitcoin so that no one or people could control it but it seems bigger people are controlling mining since its getting too expensive... this will lead ordinary people to leave the space.
2. Satoshi
who is Satoshi and why did he disappear? satoshi is believed to be the founder of bitcoin but who is behind satoshi? is it a single person or government? we dont know. this is a bit scary since people are pouring millions and billions of dollars into a project with a unknown founder.
but why did satoshi keep his identity private? some will say "its obvious, he wants privacy not attention" but is this the case?
i dont think satoshi kept their identity private for a reason. i think he kept it private because he didn't want the government coming after him. he knew that the government would come after him if his identity was revealed.
the only reason satoshi left and disappeared was when talks about government came about. is satoshi trying to tell us something? could the government be a threat to bitcoins future?
3. Government
i do believe the government will take action against bitcoin in a few years. just like how the government went after the cyperpunks they will come after bitcoin.
back in the 1980s there was a group called the "cyberpunks" these group of people believed encryption was key to privacy but at the time the government thought it was a threat...
i think once traditional markets and the dollar start crashing the government will start cracking down on bitcoin and mining. if they see they are losing power and everyone is jumping out of the dollar into bitcoin the government will take action.
can government ban bitcoin? well no but they can ban exchanges and mining and put heavy regulations and laws against it. i do think that if the us government and economy collapses they will think of bitcoin as a threat and place rules against it..
the government could also shut down bitcoin because of its energy consumption. right now governments are trying to better the world by using less energy (fossil fuel) which bitcoin uses. they could see bitcoin as a threat to the environment making them add laws and ban mining.
conclusion:
i do think that bitcoin will collapse starting 2028. there is just so many more options better than bitcoin that is more affordable for the normal retail investor. bitcoin is so limited in its technology and supply that it will be overtaken by the rich. you might think a low supply would bring in a lot of demand but i dont think that will play out for bitcoin. i think ones retail investors notice that its too expensive and controlled by the rich they will jump into other cryptos with better utility.
whales:
i think whales could play a huge part in the collapse in bitcoin. most whales and investors in bitcoin are in the market to make money. i dont think they actually believe in digital currency that's not run by a government. at one point they will dump their coins which will lead prices down.
Leverage traders:
leverage traders are a huge threat to bitcoin. there is a lot of dumb investors using high leverage causing they to be liquidated. why should we worry about this? we should worry about this because when large leverage positions get liquidate it brings the price down liquidating more people and scarying away traders.
all of these reason will cause a huge black swan event in the future.
although i do think a black swan event will happen i think bitcoin will still hit 8 million dollars per coin before it starts the event.
right now i think bitcoin is looking really bullish in a technical and fundamental standpoint. Why? we are seeing many investors coming into the crypto/nft space ever since covid. i think this space will keep on growing for awhile and we will see history be made while we are at it.
here is a chart showing the number of new crypto investors:
twitter.com/RaoulGMI...136689053699/photo/1
This chart shows that crypto is doing much greater than how the internet was doing back when it was introduced. The crypto space is growing at a record pace (113% per year) this could slow down in the future but it is still estimated that there will be over 4 billion crypto users in 2030. how is this possible? this is possible because as the crypto space develops we are seeing big investors and countries that are adopting or joining in the crypto space. we've seen investors like Barry Silbert (founder of the Digital currency group), Micheal Saylor (co founder of Microstrategy), Winkelvoss twins (early bitcoin investors), Elon Musk(founder of Tesla,Boring company, and Space X) and Micheal Novogratz (former hedge fund manager and goldman sachs partner)
s3.cointelegraph.com...f90062a8ef3f448.jpeg
this chart here shows some of the publicly traded companies that own bitcoin. Grayscale owns almost 500,000 bitcoin putting their position at almost 20 billion dollars! I do think that this is just the start for bitcoin and i think that we will see bigger companies like Amazon, Apple, walmart, etc start to accept or hold bitcoin. we saw happened when Tesla announced that they will be accepting bitcoin...
price jumped over 25% in 1 day after the announcement. if we see bigger companies in the future start holding bitcoin/accepting bitcoin i think we will see even larger spikes.
Even though we are seeing big investors and companies jump into bitcoin we are also seeing entire countries starting to accept bitcoin and make it a legal currency!
we can see here that the bitcoin price did drop over 18% after the Bitcoin Law took place in El Salvador. i do not think that this will be the case in the future if more countries start accepting bitcoin.
Do i think bitcoin will be legal tender in other countries? yes and no. i do believe that bitcoin will become legal tender in countries that a smaller, third world, or countries with hyperinflation.
i dont think we will see bitcoin reach big countries like America, China, Or Russia.
i say this because larger country like the US want to have as much power. There is a reason why politicians like Trump dont like crypto. bigger politicians want to keep the dollar at the top since that's how america and americans think, they want to be at the top.
America left the gold standard for a reason.... the left the gold standard so the government and the fed could have as much power over the dollar as they can. Leaving the gold standard made it easy for the government to print and much money as they want which could be bad for Americas future and i talked in the DXY section.
Although i dont think America will switch to bitcoin they do allow for it to be traded and sold. i do think America could someday shut down Bitcoin trading in the future (i will talk about this in a bit)
Bullish scenario:
Although i think we will see a black swan even in the near future i do think we will see bitcoin thrive for another 10 years or so.
1. good hedge against inflation
as you can see on this chart historically bitcoin does end up going up every time the dollar drops. right now we are seeing the dollar rise and we will rise for a bit more before we drop and bitcoin continues to a possible 500k target this year.
here is another chart of DXY:
overall i do see the dollar falling dramatically over the years meaning bitcoin is looking really bullish. (short term looking bearish. i will talk about this in the bearish scenario).
2. 4 year cycle:
like i said in the beginning, we are still in this 4 year cycle/channel. i do believe we will see it have a few more years of historic moves before we get a possible break in the cycle.
as you can see on this chart price is about to pass a fib time zone (we will cross mid June) i think that we will start our bull market once we cross this level. why do i say this? i think we will go into a bull cycle since we are following a bull/bear market pattern. on the chart you can see that the first time we crossed we went into a bear market... after we crossed it again we went into a bull market... and when we crossed it again we went into a bear market. if we continue the same pattern i do believe that starting june and the rest of 2022 will be extremely bullish for bitcoin.
3. companies and investors jumping into bitcoin:
spendmenot.com/wp-co...DATE-1-1991x2048.png
this chart here shows the companies that accept bitcoin for products and services like subscriptions. these companies listed aren't the biggest out there but everything starts of small. i think once we see Tesla start to accept crypto (as well as other bigger companies) we will see bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole start to pump up. i do think that it is possible that we see this Q3 and Q4 of 2022.
4. low supply and lost supply:
content.fortune...st_bitcoins.png?resize=750...
this chart here shows the amount of bitcoin that is lost. it is estimated that 2million - 3 million bitcoins are lost. 3 million coins is 14% of bitcoins total supply! this makes the supply lower which could lead demand. demand could also go up due to more investors and companies endorsing crypto and bitcoin. there is almost 50 million millionaires in the world and 21 million bitcoin. is this a good or bad thing? i think this will be good for the short term(10 years) but bad in the long term..(i will talk about it in the bearish scenario)
Bearish/short term scenario:
1. bitcoin is looking bearish in the short term:
this chart is showing that bitcoin is forming a double top + a heads and shoulders... these 2 patterns are quite bearish and it could send prices falling in the upcoming months.
if you measure the target of the H&S it would bring us to 16k..
other times i have post talking about bitcoin coming down to 30k since it is a strong level but with this recent bounce (dead cat bounce) i think it will go lower....
here are some of the charts i have posted:
as you can see here i talk about the heads and shoulder patterns and support and resistance. right now we are pushing up and i do think that we will push up a bit more before we end up dropping to 20k-16k.
here are some of the charts showing we could drop a lot more:
on this chart it is showing you that the 47k level is where a lot of bearish OB is at which could cause it to drop.... you also see 2 fib lines on this chart. these fib lines could cause us to pump and crash in march. the first line is on March 1st and the other is on March 24th. i think the one of the 24th will cause to go down due to bearish activity and possible short term dollar rise. we also see fib circles on this chart, these fib circles can predict massive moves in the market and i think that these rings can be considered as "crash rings" since last time price crossed them/broke them prices dropped... i think that we will break it again causing prices to drop hard.
this chart shows you more rings + resistance levels. on this chart you can see that every time we cross a ring we end up dropping...on February 10th we saw price touch one of these rings which resulted in price falling. i do think markets will push up after we hit 38.7K (strong support level). after we hit 38.7k i do think we will break the circle and top out at 47k (a resistance level, shown on chart) as is said above, 47k is also a level for bearish OB so i think that its looking perfect for a top at 47k
2. Interest rates and Dollar rise(short term)
on this chart you can see bitcoin and interest rates. you can see once interest rates stay flat bitcoin usually starts to move up but once interest rates move markets start crashing. The fed is planning on raising interest rates in march which could spook the markets temporarily. i think this will be another factor on why bitcoin will crash to 20k-16k in march.
this chart shows the dollar and bitcoin. as you can see, bitcoin is currently in a down trend and the dollar is in a uptrend. i think the dollar still has a little room to go up which will cause bitcoin to go down
3. Smart money
www.benzinga.com/fil...8-24_at_15.00.19.png
link to website for chart ---> academy.glassnode.co...ent-output-age-bands
over the past week or so we have seen "smart money" start taking profits from the bitcoin market. what is "smart money"? its different for everyone but i see smart money as big investors/firms and long term holders. in this case, we will be looking at the long term holders (5-7 years). every time we have a spike showing that long term holders pull out of the markets it usually makes the entire bitcoin market drop. right now we are seeing a spike in "smart money" leaving the markets which could lead to a short term correction the upcoming month.
Satoshi Nakamoto:
a huge con about bitcoin is that its creator(s) is unknown. who is satoshi? is it 1 person, 5 dude in a basement, the government, china, russia, the us? it seems people are putting money into this satoshi guy without knowing anything about him. why did he suddenly disappear? does he know bitcoins future could be in trouble?
before we do talk about the black swan even i do want to talk about how ETH could one day take over BTC.
i believe that one day eth will over take bitcoin in the biggest crypto. why do i think this? this is why:
1. Unlike bitcoin... which was created to be an alternative payment system that would operate free of governments... eth was enabled to deploy smart contracts and dApps to be built and run without downtime, fraud,control, or interference from a third party or government.
Eth offers way much more than bitcoin. tokens and smart contracts like NFTS can be created on the ETH blockchain.
Eth has also gained widespread adoption since it was released and is still emerging in the defi space.
2. although eth was not created to be an alternative to fiat like bitcoin it is still used around the world to make payments and is also used as a store of value and collateral.
the current bitcoin transactions per second is 4.6 while eth does 15-45 a second. i do think companies will switch to eth since it is faster and will be even faster with eth 2.0
3. eth outperforming bitcoin:
gaming,nfts,and technology has pushed eths price to skyrocket up 510% in 2021 compared to bitcoins 93%.
in 2020 eths market cap was about one tenth of bitcoins but in 2021 eth is about half of bitcoins market cap.
i.imgur.com/Vx7v4Z0.jpg
s.yimg.com/ny/api/re...af41bc46c0a5f8835984
these 2 charts show you the growth of bitcoin and eth over the years. if eth continues to get this annual gains i think it will surpass bitcoin within 5 years.
with the NFT space growing i do think that ETH will surpass bitcoin quickly.
4. Eth 2.0:
Both bitcoin and Eth currently use a PoW system (proof of work) but in 2022-2023 eth will switch to a PoS system (proof of stake)
this update will make eth more scalable, secure, and sustainable. Bitcoins PoW system is garbage compared to this since PoW uses so much energy. the PoS system substitutes computational power with staking making eth use less energy. this system will also replace miners with validators who stake their eth.
Eth 2.0 will also reduce gas fees significantly making it more scalable and easier for people to access DeFi services.
Bitcoin uses around 177.43 TWh of electricity yearly while eth uses around 79.69 TWh yearly but with eth 2.0 eths energy consumption will drop significantly.
i do believe that bitcoins energy consumption will be the end of bitcoin.
The Black Swan Event:
i believe that bitcoin will see a black swan even in 2028. i think this for many reasons:
1. Energy consumption:
bitcoin uses enough energy in 1 transaction to power up a typical American home for six weeks (1,173 kilowat hours of electricity). this number is bad enough and will continue to increase over the years.
bitcoin uses more energy than sweden,ukraine,norway,and argentina.
www.ft.com/__or...3a-standard.png?dpr=1&...
also, Bitcoin does end up using about 30% of fossil fuel to produce energy (40-70% is renewable energy) although it does use renewable energy experts do say that "using renewable energy to power bitcoins mining means it won't be available to power a home, factory, or electric car" this means that if we want to continue mining bitcoin we would have to let homes and factories to stock running.
do you think governments will allow this? i dont think so. if bitcoin uses so much energy (it will increase in the future) it will make governments take action against mining and bitcoin like China.
I think ETH will overtake bitcoin due to its energy consumption.
also, bitcoin mining is getting to expensive. before bitcoin was huge you could mine bitcoin on your small computer but now you need big fancy machines. this means its getting more expensive to mine bitcoin. not just that.... bitcoin mining is getting taken over by big corporations and investors. Satoshi made bitcoin so that no one or people could control it but it seems bigger people are controlling mining since its getting too expensive... this will lead ordinary people to leave the space.
2. Satoshi
who is Satoshi and why did he disappear? satoshi is believed to be the founder of bitcoin but who is behind satoshi? is it a single person or government? we dont know. this is a bit scary since people are pouring millions and billions of dollars into a project with a unknown founder.
but why did satoshi keep his identity private? some will say "its obvious, he wants privacy not attention" but is this the case?
i dont think satoshi kept their identity private for a reason. i think he kept it private because he didn't want the government coming after him. he knew that the government would come after him if his identity was revealed.
the only reason satoshi left and disappeared was when talks about government came about. is satoshi trying to tell us something? could the government be a threat to bitcoins future?
3. Government
i do believe the government will take action against bitcoin in a few years. just like how the government went after the cyperpunks they will come after bitcoin.
back in the 1980s there was a group called the "cyberpunks" these group of people believed encryption was key to privacy but at the time the government thought it was a threat...
i think once traditional markets and the dollar start crashing the government will start cracking down on bitcoin and mining. if they see they are losing power and everyone is jumping out of the dollar into bitcoin the government will take action.
can government ban bitcoin? well no but they can ban exchanges and mining and put heavy regulations and laws against it. i do think that if the us government and economy collapses they will think of bitcoin as a threat and place rules against it..
the government could also shut down bitcoin because of its energy consumption. right now governments are trying to better the world by using less energy (fossil fuel) which bitcoin uses. they could see bitcoin as a threat to the environment making them add laws and ban mining.
conclusion:
i do think that bitcoin will collapse starting 2028. there is just so many more options better than bitcoin that is more affordable for the normal retail investor. bitcoin is so limited in its technology and supply that it will be overtaken by the rich. you might think a low supply would bring in a lot of demand but i dont think that will play out for bitcoin. i think ones retail investors notice that its too expensive and controlled by the rich they will jump into other cryptos with better utility.
whales:
i think whales could play a huge part in the collapse in bitcoin. most whales and investors in bitcoin are in the market to make money. i dont think they actually believe in digital currency that's not run by a government. at one point they will dump their coins which will lead prices down.
Leverage traders:
leverage traders are a huge threat to bitcoin. there is a lot of dumb investors using high leverage causing they to be liquidated. why should we worry about this? we should worry about this because when large leverage positions get liquidate it brings the price down liquidating more people and scarying away traders.
all of these reason will cause a huge black swan event in the future.
although i do think a black swan event will happen i think bitcoin will still hit 8 million dollars per coin before it starts the event.