Hello,
Sharing a chart analysis based on Elliott Waves, TD indicator, Price Action and volumes for the very first time.
Feeling it’s very important week for the whole crypto market.
You are welcome to throw in your comments, chart adjustments and corrections if I missed something.
The long-term uptrend line that was supporting the price for months (from June 2017) is being challenged for 4th time and the price is below the trend line now.
The bullish wave started on February this year could be considered as failed, as the price is far below 78.6% Fibo.
The downtrend is developing market-wide on declining volumes.
TD indicator on weekly chart is bearish. TD indicator on daily chart close to profit-fixing #9 candle (2 days left). However, looks like the Wall Street people and smart money already left the market or are playing the short play for unknown reasons bringing the death cross (the cross of MA50 and MA200 on daily chart) to the table.
My EW chart suggests we’re still in wave #5 down with a potential target at $4500 level and probably even lower to $2600 and $1300 that Tone Vays has mentioned in his vlogs.
For the EW structure to be proven wrong, the bulls need to activate immediately and close the price above $7100 level and later close above $7500, otherwise the market risks to fall far below the current levels.
This will be a massacre and not just a blood on the streets as the market cap will fall below the interest cap of large players and institutional money we all are waiting for.
The truth here is that even if the price bounces from lower levels, it should be considered as a short-term bounce/speculation but not a bottoming out as there should be wave B (upwards) and then wave C (downwards on daily time frame). In this case, the crypto winter promises to be very long with no chance of significant recovery.
What could we do? Do you like to trade in a bear market and be a bear, demolishing the value of the awesome assets class?
Your ideas are welcome!
Sharing a chart analysis based on Elliott Waves, TD indicator, Price Action and volumes for the very first time.
Feeling it’s very important week for the whole crypto market.
You are welcome to throw in your comments, chart adjustments and corrections if I missed something.
The long-term uptrend line that was supporting the price for months (from June 2017) is being challenged for 4th time and the price is below the trend line now.
The bullish wave started on February this year could be considered as failed, as the price is far below 78.6% Fibo.
The downtrend is developing market-wide on declining volumes.
TD indicator on weekly chart is bearish. TD indicator on daily chart close to profit-fixing #9 candle (2 days left). However, looks like the Wall Street people and smart money already left the market or are playing the short play for unknown reasons bringing the death cross (the cross of MA50 and MA200 on daily chart) to the table.
My EW chart suggests we’re still in wave #5 down with a potential target at $4500 level and probably even lower to $2600 and $1300 that Tone Vays has mentioned in his vlogs.
For the EW structure to be proven wrong, the bulls need to activate immediately and close the price above $7100 level and later close above $7500, otherwise the market risks to fall far below the current levels.
This will be a massacre and not just a blood on the streets as the market cap will fall below the interest cap of large players and institutional money we all are waiting for.
The truth here is that even if the price bounces from lower levels, it should be considered as a short-term bounce/speculation but not a bottoming out as there should be wave B (upwards) and then wave C (downwards on daily time frame). In this case, the crypto winter promises to be very long with no chance of significant recovery.
What could we do? Do you like to trade in a bear market and be a bear, demolishing the value of the awesome assets class?
Your ideas are welcome!
Comment:
The bears have won!
The fall continues with the main target identified at $6000 (at least).
The market dump is systematic, with even no need of FUD until the bears targets/goals are reached. And who knows what is their goal?
This time, I don't have an alternative scenario, as the EW structure clearly shows the development of wave #3 of 5 down.
In most optimistic scenario, the price will find the bottom around 5700-6000 area.
While it may continue falling to 4600 area, breaking down the $100bln asset class limit.
The fall continues with the main target identified at $6000 (at least).
The market dump is systematic, with even no need of FUD until the bears targets/goals are reached. And who knows what is their goal?
This time, I don't have an alternative scenario, as the EW structure clearly shows the development of wave #3 of 5 down.
In most optimistic scenario, the price will find the bottom around 5700-6000 area.
While it may continue falling to 4600 area, breaking down the $100bln asset class limit.
It has been in extreme oversold levels suggesting a short-term bounce to test the rejection trend line, but there are bears alone on the market: