( I AM SHORT AT $33,600 )
170 days = 20 1W candles
First I want to show and discuses past halving's and price action before and after it happened.
2012
This was back when
BTC
first started, we cant really compare PA to now because of low liquidity and whatnot. What I will note is after the halving it stayed stable for 6 weeks straight.
2016
Here, more money was in its marketcap and it did jump close to its highs before the halving, then right after it fell for 4 weeks before it bottomed.
2020
This is the most important halving to this day because of it big marketcap, billionaires first started playing with
BTC
and it going mainstream. We were nowhere near our highs of $20k and 20 weeks before the halving we had a big fall killing every long with a mini rise before it killing most shorters (I was one of them who died LOL).
--------------------------------------------------------------
2023/2024
We are in a ascending triangle pattern with very strong resistance from 31k to 34k. An ascending triangle pattern can brake up or down but a brake above would mean its target would be its highs of 60k.... based on past data we shouldn't be at highs when the halving hits, we need to hurt shorters and longers before it all happens and based on PA in 2023 ALL SHORTS DIED but when did longs die? not yet.
Looking at the liquidity map shorts are no where to be seen! everyone is long! most people leveraged up there current positions and pushed up liquidations based on braking new 2023 highs and the rest have just been holding from 18k to 24k. THEY NEED TO BE SCARED OUT OR KILLED. Lets not forget about the WW3 possibility looming.
Now lets look at the triangle braking down, the target would be back to its "bottom" which would mean taking out all of its higher highs and brake the "Bullish Scenario" and that would most likely cause a dramatic liquidation event which would brake 15k and taking us down to the purple lines.
Remember all longs are still here and alive without any real pain, never in history has a multi billion dollar asset let one big group win. Normally they hurt and kill everyone before a big move happens.
PURPLE LINES ARE THE BUYING AREA
170 days = 20 1W candles
First I want to show and discuses past halving's and price action before and after it happened.
2012
BTC
first started, we cant really compare PA to now because of low liquidity and whatnot. What I will note is after the halving it stayed stable for 6 weeks straight. 2016
2020
BTC
and it going mainstream. We were nowhere near our highs of $20k and 20 weeks before the halving we had a big fall killing every long with a mini rise before it killing most shorters (I was one of them who died LOL). --------------------------------------------------------------
2023/2024
We are in a ascending triangle pattern with very strong resistance from 31k to 34k. An ascending triangle pattern can brake up or down but a brake above would mean its target would be its highs of 60k.... based on past data we shouldn't be at highs when the halving hits, we need to hurt shorters and longers before it all happens and based on PA in 2023 ALL SHORTS DIED but when did longs die? not yet.
Now lets look at the triangle braking down, the target would be back to its "bottom" which would mean taking out all of its higher highs and brake the "Bullish Scenario" and that would most likely cause a dramatic liquidation event which would brake 15k and taking us down to the purple lines.
Remember all longs are still here and alive without any real pain, never in history has a multi billion dollar asset let one big group win. Normally they hurt and kill everyone before a big move happens.
PURPLE LINES ARE THE BUYING AREA