Hi Everyone,
It pains me to make this prediction, but as much as I love Bitcoin fundamentally, I believe that we are in a mid-term bear market. Mid-Term being what I think will be around 1 and a half months.
Historical evidence:
This idea was not my own but I saw the argument on Twitter and its something I can get behind.
If we go to the weekly chart and pull up the 7, 50 and 100 MAs, we'll see that the weekly 7 MA is about to cross below the 50 for the first time since mid-2015 and only the second time in history.
This 2015 section of the chart is highlighted with a death cross in the red ellipse, followed by a breakdown of the price until we find strong historical support, represented by the Blue box covering the area above 160$.
From the bottom, we attempt to break against the descending 50 MA but get rejected. That rejection finds support on the original bottom and a double bottom is formed.
Once we find support at 160$ and break the 50 MA, represented by the green ellipse, we head into a bull cycle, which I think will contain some very significant price action.
Current State:
On the 2017/2018 Bitcoin chart, the 7MA is about to cross downward over the 50 and send us into that prolonged bear market.
At the levels indicated by the green buy zone, around 4.6-5k (not drawn exactly) we have the 100 MA rising up for support and a historical level of support from price action this past August.
If Bitcoin falls to there the weekly RSI will likely also be the lowest its been since 2015 and will be a prime spot to buy up some long positions.
Be careful trying to buy the exact bottom. While I expect the price to stabilize around these levels and will be going long myself, we will need some catalyst, likely news of the SEC announcing a Bitcoin ETF, to break the trend, add liquidity to the market and push us into a bull cycle.
I will be averaging down into this area to avoid missing any kind of crazy news.
This is just my analysis, but I hope this helps people out.
Thanks for reading.
It pains me to make this prediction, but as much as I love Bitcoin fundamentally, I believe that we are in a mid-term bear market. Mid-Term being what I think will be around 1 and a half months.
Historical evidence:
This idea was not my own but I saw the argument on Twitter and its something I can get behind.
If we go to the weekly chart and pull up the 7, 50 and 100 MAs, we'll see that the weekly 7 MA is about to cross below the 50 for the first time since mid-2015 and only the second time in history.
This 2015 section of the chart is highlighted with a death cross in the red ellipse, followed by a breakdown of the price until we find strong historical support, represented by the Blue box covering the area above 160$.
From the bottom, we attempt to break against the descending 50 MA but get rejected. That rejection finds support on the original bottom and a double bottom is formed.
Once we find support at 160$ and break the 50 MA, represented by the green ellipse, we head into a bull cycle, which I think will contain some very significant price action.
Current State:
On the 2017/2018 Bitcoin chart, the 7MA is about to cross downward over the 50 and send us into that prolonged bear market.
At the levels indicated by the green buy zone, around 4.6-5k (not drawn exactly) we have the 100 MA rising up for support and a historical level of support from price action this past August.
If Bitcoin falls to there the weekly RSI will likely also be the lowest its been since 2015 and will be a prime spot to buy up some long positions.
Be careful trying to buy the exact bottom. While I expect the price to stabilize around these levels and will be going long myself, we will need some catalyst, likely news of the SEC announcing a Bitcoin ETF, to break the trend, add liquidity to the market and push us into a bull cycle.
I will be averaging down into this area to avoid missing any kind of crazy news.
This is just my analysis, but I hope this helps people out.
Thanks for reading.
Comment:
And it has begun!
As I'm writing this we just dropped to around 5900 and bounced back up to around 6000
I'm expecting us to bounce a little farther and then have a lot more short action
I would like to add some more shorts around a resistance line at 6300 if we can get up there
Support levels at 5975 and 5800
Longer Term - I think we're headed down to around 52-5400 where i will go long and I believe we'll have a lot of potential for a bounce
As I'm writing this we just dropped to around 5900 and bounced back up to around 6000
I'm expecting us to bounce a little farther and then have a lot more short action
I would like to add some more shorts around a resistance line at 6300 if we can get up there
Support levels at 5975 and 5800
Longer Term - I think we're headed down to around 52-5400 where i will go long and I believe we'll have a lot of potential for a bounce
This bounce up from 6300 was expected.
I began Laddering shorts around 6450 (granted a little early, but I didn't want to miss the upcoming drop)
We have heavy resistance at 6800, which we already met, and will need to break it to get to to the next one at 7100.
I will continue adding to my position if we get up there but for now, I am stocked up on shorts and will sit tight.