Bitcoin: The Halving Range.

Bitcoin appears to be in a consolidation (see converging lines on chart) as the halving event nears. Makes sense, especially since events like this tend to be "buy the rumor, sell the news". There is no way to know how Bitcoin will react going into the halving because there are many factors in play, often too many to effectively act upon. Many like to resort to history, but history does NOT repeat itself exactly the same way every time. The illustration on this chart shows the scenario that I am anticipating for the coming week.

As of now, IF 68,850 is compromised, a new swing trade buy signal will be in effect on this time frame. IF the consolidation stays intact, then it is not likely to go very far (71K area resistance). This means a better way to participate is day trade with low expectations. I repeat that a lot because MOST of the time, there is little to no opportunities on the larger time frames that make sense in terms of the associated RISK. Sure you can enter at any price and it MAY go your way, but how much risk are you taking? Big wins with high risk = unsustainable account performance (exchanges, forex dealers, prop firms and casinos LOVE this idea).

Another way to capitalize on this consolidation is to WAIT for supports to be tested such as the 66K and 64K levels. If 64K is compromised, a test of 60K becomes much more likely which would extend the range of the consolidation. Upon testing such levels, waiting for confirmation before entering is key because markets are HIGHLY random and there is no guarantee supports hold.

Technical analysis helps to develop a plan, evaluate risk and manage expectations. It is NOT a method to forecast the future as many believe. Anything can happen, any time, all it takes is an unexpected piece of news. The information I provide here is to help you operate under a realistic set of expectations as defined by historical MARKET structure, NOT how I feel or think. Realize that this is actually a game of information. Whoever has the best information will profit from the majority of participants who "believe" they are acting on useful information.

As a short term oriented trader, I am not trying to be "right". I am trying to gain insight into areas of price behavior that may offer a greater probability of a positive outcome. In other words looking for price action clues that point to repetitive behaviors that I can capitalize on.
Let that sink in before consuming another Youtube video featuring a rocket ship.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.