Bitcoin Ranging Ascending Triangle, Breakout Within 72 Hours
So here we are again, another day of bearish ranging in the low to mid 50s. On the day chart we see an ascending triangle shaping up nicely.
We are also in a second day of negative VFI which indicates continued bearish movements short term.
If we look at the last two impulses up on the supertrend they were preceded by 5-6 days of negative VFI before swinging up into bullish territory. Now if we look at the apex of the ascending triangle we are in, it's apex is five days from the start of the pattern.
Now we know most triangles breakout before reaching the apex of the triangle, and given that our last move up to 61k was probably a corrective wave (assuming a very ambitious B wave), we are already well into the correction before the next impulse on the super trend, so I can't commit to a firm timeline, I think we will see less than the historical duration for the negative VFI, and instead of 5 days, we may see something closer to 3 days until breakout, maybe less.
Resistance: Short term 55k is acting as a resistance, we are in a small symmetrical triangle, with the possibility of falling to retest support at 53k before likely reversing. If we break through 55k we'll retest 57k which is where BTC was firmly rejected yesterday sending it back down to bounce off 54k at the bottom of the triangle before it settled in the 55k range where it continues to consolidate.
Support: Short term 53-54k appears to have very strong support. We've bounced off there several times in this triangle. Long term the bottom of the supertrend is around 49.5k, so if we fall through the support at 53k and 50k, I am confident we would bounce off somewhere in the 49k range.
Bottom Line: I would plan on a breakout North of the ascending triangle in the next 72 hours based on the ascending triangle forming. Look for confirmation with VFI if it begin to climb bullish or crossover the zero line, if the chart breaks out of the triangle North or the moving averages crossover bullish.
We are also in a second day of negative VFI which indicates continued bearish movements short term.
If we look at the last two impulses up on the supertrend they were preceded by 5-6 days of negative VFI before swinging up into bullish territory. Now if we look at the apex of the ascending triangle we are in, it's apex is five days from the start of the pattern.
Now we know most triangles breakout before reaching the apex of the triangle, and given that our last move up to 61k was probably a corrective wave (assuming a very ambitious B wave), we are already well into the correction before the next impulse on the super trend, so I can't commit to a firm timeline, I think we will see less than the historical duration for the negative VFI, and instead of 5 days, we may see something closer to 3 days until breakout, maybe less.
Resistance: Short term 55k is acting as a resistance, we are in a small symmetrical triangle, with the possibility of falling to retest support at 53k before likely reversing. If we break through 55k we'll retest 57k which is where BTC was firmly rejected yesterday sending it back down to bounce off 54k at the bottom of the triangle before it settled in the 55k range where it continues to consolidate.
Support: Short term 53-54k appears to have very strong support. We've bounced off there several times in this triangle. Long term the bottom of the supertrend is around 49.5k, so if we fall through the support at 53k and 50k, I am confident we would bounce off somewhere in the 49k range.
Bottom Line: I would plan on a breakout North of the ascending triangle in the next 72 hours based on the ascending triangle forming. Look for confirmation with VFI if it begin to climb bullish or crossover the zero line, if the chart breaks out of the triangle North or the moving averages crossover bullish.