mpetra

Bitcoin and example of trading approach

mpetra Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Dear friends,
I have been following TA ideas on Bitcoin for a long time.
I noted how difficult it is to make accurate predictions, I'm following the top author and even if I have to thank for the amount of thing I've learned from them, I must say that none of their advice came in handy. Few of them really seem to have any skills on tranding.
If I had to say that the TA works on the basis of what I have read here, I should admit that it is a completely fallacious science. In reality, however, I do not think things are like that, I think in particular that the TA can really come in handy and for these reason, even if I'm certainly too inexperienced to give you advice, I decided to share my trading actions here to have a comparison with you.
It seems to me very useless to present you as many authors do the usual two scenarios bear and bull.
There are some who first say that the bitcoin will fall to 4700$ to then take back everything and say that they are great because one of their thousand possible scenarios has occurred. I prefer to share what i will do in future and why.
I'll start with a virtual amount of dallars, let me say 1000, give you my next action and let's see if I'm right or wrong.

Now let's start.

During the last week the bitcoin definitely lived a moment of bull. Starting from 6000$ it reached 9600! 60% of profit!
Now what will you do if you have gained such amount of profit ? Buying at such an high price is a tremendous and inconsiderate risk.

From another point of view let me say "WHAT IF".

What if the major investors should have a take profit?
Realistically, the bitcoin price could go down to a 50% fibonacci retracement, let me say at the price of 8200$.
Entering 9600 is a disaster.

What if an inversion of the trend is actually happening, and we are going from a bear to a bull period ?
Well in this case bitcoin will easily reach qouta 11700.

Ok assume this two what if have equal probability I will risk 1400$ of loss for 2000$ of gain. In this case
what is the right strategy ? For me wait and place an order to let me say 8300, waiting for the next day to understand where we are moving to.
Missing gain is not a problem, a strong loss is difficult to overcome

So my ideas is wait and place order to 8300$ buying 1000$ -> 0.12 bitcoin.

What do you think ?

I'm not a financial advisor, please do not consider my actions as advice, make trading based on your ideas.
Bitcoin trading is highly risky
Comment:

After few hours from the initial trading idea bitcoin is starting to go down towards 8300$.
From 15 minute chart we see a down trending channel with a well defined upper resistence.
No change to my position I keep on waiting till the prefixed level.

Do you have any different position ?

WHAT IF:
what if the price would reach 9100$. it seems that an H&S formation could happen.

what if the price break the 9100$ resistence ?
I can review my position but for the moent buy at 8300$
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