This clearly requires a new idea. I've traced here two Fib retracement levels sets, a bigger one for what I've marked waves 3-4-5 and a smaller one for what I marked as wave 5. This pitchfork that I've traced some time ago approaches the bottom, which should coincide to Fib level 0.5 on the big set and 1.618 on the small set.
Take into account that maybe the market is not that bullish tho. Here are some troubles that might affect the market:
www.reddit.com/r/Bit...e_room_okex_futures/
Also, pitchforks are very speculative trades; if it breaks down, I wouldn't enter. Theoretically, we started a bullish cycle of the stoch RSI on the 2h chart, and the bear cycle is coming to an end on the daily chart. But on the background of the troubles on OKex, one big drop more is still possible, and patterns won't be so clear. Also ETF seem to have been rejected, adding negative feelings here.
Also, my big Fib set would be valid if actually waves 3-4-5 were a single wave; some traders see them as such, but that should have been a 5-subwave pattern, not a 3 one; I can't see 5 clear subwaves on that wave. Besides, we have a 0.786 fib circle that would want to lead us down, we fell below the blue downtrend line (which we didn't cross above with a clear trend) and we have the red $7582 resistance which didn't turn into support for now, so the market might stay overall bearish for now...
Take into account that maybe the market is not that bullish tho. Here are some troubles that might affect the market:
www.reddit.com/r/Bit...e_room_okex_futures/
Also, pitchforks are very speculative trades; if it breaks down, I wouldn't enter. Theoretically, we started a bullish cycle of the stoch RSI on the 2h chart, and the bear cycle is coming to an end on the daily chart. But on the background of the troubles on OKex, one big drop more is still possible, and patterns won't be so clear. Also ETF seem to have been rejected, adding negative feelings here.
Also, my big Fib set would be valid if actually waves 3-4-5 were a single wave; some traders see them as such, but that should have been a 5-subwave pattern, not a 3 one; I can't see 5 clear subwaves on that wave. Besides, we have a 0.786 fib circle that would want to lead us down, we fell below the blue downtrend line (which we didn't cross above with a clear trend) and we have the red $7582 resistance which didn't turn into support for now, so the market might stay overall bearish for now...
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As you can see, bear cycle on the daily is not over and the big hidden bearish divergence is still on effect, so the pitchfork might break down...
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Look how funny the stochastic RSI can have bull cycle without the price actually going up! If things continue this way, we might need to go further down and break the pitchfork. So far I inclined to trace again the large Fib levels set to contain the whole 12345 impulse as I wrote it here. We might actually be on a big wave 2 now and if so there is still room down to retrace bullish. Technically we are still in a hidden bullish divergence since the end of wave 4. But beware what's happening at OKEx until Friday, that might make things turn nasty. Stop losses on place!
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We might have two divergent pitchforks; looks like we're not yet decided which one to take. It might be the influence of the OKEx bitcoin loss...
However on the 2h chart we are in a bearish stochastic RSI cycle, and we have hidden bearish divergence on stoch RSI and CCI (but not on the RSI); therefore we may go lower. If we go under $7400 I might suspect this isn't a correction wave.
However on the 2h chart we are in a bearish stochastic RSI cycle, and we have hidden bearish divergence on stoch RSI and CCI (but not on the RSI); therefore we may go lower. If we go under $7400 I might suspect this isn't a correction wave.
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First, I am coming with a correction; looking at the big pitchfork queue, it should rather look like below; so we aren't yet out of it.
Second, I've dropped the small Fib levels set, cause I think that the current wave pattern isn't an ABC correction anymore, but a 12345 one.
And third, I've redrawn the big Fib levels set to comprise the whole 12345 upward pattern; according to it, probably we are going to hit the $7280 yellow support with a wick to $6816 which corresponds to 0.618 Fib level, and exiting a little the big pitchfork, but not lower than the upper range of the small downtrend pitchfork. There, we're probably go up again, but not to the moon yet, but building a zigzag bigger wave pattern; I think not higher than $8800-9000. Watch the news however, emotions are still strong in this market.
Second, I've dropped the small Fib levels set, cause I think that the current wave pattern isn't an ABC correction anymore, but a 12345 one.
And third, I've redrawn the big Fib levels set to comprise the whole 12345 upward pattern; according to it, probably we are going to hit the $7280 yellow support with a wick to $6816 which corresponds to 0.618 Fib level, and exiting a little the big pitchfork, but not lower than the upper range of the small downtrend pitchfork. There, we're probably go up again, but not to the moon yet, but building a zigzag bigger wave pattern; I think not higher than $8800-9000. Watch the news however, emotions are still strong in this market.
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My bad, in the last update please read $6863 instead of $7280 yellow support; I was in a hurry and read the current level instead of the target :D
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I was in a trip, now back for a while. Didn't have any trade to miss as I see. Actually wave 3 was a bit longer and we finished wave 4 below $6200; but what we are doing now looks like a retrace, so I am expecting a big dip, something between $1000 and $2000 lower. However the daily chart expects a jump up, so it might be only a short dip. As you can see below, I've dropped the old big pitchfork and extended the range of the new downtrend pitchfork; I think this retrace won't be able to cross $6600-6700 again, the bearish divergence would be too strong. So we stay in this pitchfork until the bulls take control on the 2h chart. There might be soon a good moment to buy, somewhere between $5400 and $4800, and this could be for a long term.
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We already have an inverted cup & handle on the daily chart, which might need to evolve into a H&S pattern. If it confirms, it might go as low as $3500!
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There was a shorts squeeze, now people are shorting the market. It already happened without price increase, and so it is now, cause it's week-end... As long as shorts don't get forcibly liquidated, expect the price to go down soon after a small increase...
