Bitcoin Bearish vs Bullish Possibility after Consensus 2018

As an IT Engineer with nearly 18yrs of Experience I would always like to see the big picture before I start doing anything not just IT. Also I believe that it's best to look for more than 1 possible scenario for anything that you do so that you have a less chance of miss something.

As you know no one could ever tell you the 100% correct path of the bitcoin all the time you also should be 50-50 Optimistic and Pessimistic about the currenct situation so that you are prepared if it goes in the wrong direction.

So here I found that there could be 2 possible paths for bitcoin at the moment:

1. Bearish Possibility

This is based on ABCDE Descending Triangle Correction Pattern. We have to complete the Wave B & C to complete the Cycle before new Market Cycle can start

After the Wave A of Wave (E) is completed ~ 7800 or above we are going upto Wave B for correction of 38.2% of Wave A like we did in Wave A of Wave (C)

Then again will go down to the last Wave C of Wave (E) ~ 7200$

Then the Wave (1) will finally starts in a new Market Cycle and In 2017 Wave (1) did around 3150$ in 48days.

2. Bullish Possibility

This is based on flat ABC Correction Pattern.If we assume that Correction ended arond April 1st (Hopefully BTC is not fooling us around on April Fools Day) we have already done the Wave (1) which got 5 subwaves (1 -5)

If that's the case then we are in the Wave (2) correction which got 3 subwaves(A,B,C).

Wave C of Wave (2) is 0.618 - 0.8 of Wave (1) Completes in the 7.2 - 7.8 Area.

After this We will be going up towards the Wave (3) which will be the longest Wave and it's ~1.618 of Wave (1) which completes around 13800$. It is interesting to see that in 2017 this took 55 days and if you draw a parralel line to the Current Wave (1) its also going to Complete ~55 days

No one knows yet what Bitcoin will do but the time will tell so get ready with both the scenarios.

"MOST IMPORTANT" thing here is to identify the waves "CORRECTLY" by studying the "BIG PICTURE" of the market cycle and use the "CORRECT" Fibonacci numbers or "RANGES" to calculate the "TARGET" of the wave endings.Then it's so easy for you to "EXIT or REVERSE" before any correction or trend change

RISK DISCLOSURE:

Please note that this is purely Educational purposes only and not as Individual Investment Advice. If you choose to follow the above techniques you do so at your own risk after giving thorough and reasonable thought and consideration to your actions and their potential consequences

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Here's the big picture of Wave A going to Wave B

Please note that we are in a subwave of another wave all the time and wave numbering and the times goes like this

wave i ii iii iv v a b c which completes in minutes
wave (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (a) (b) (c) in hours
wave ((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v)) ((a)) ((b)) ((c)) in days
wave 1 2 3 4 5 A B C in weeks
wave (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (A) (B) (C) in weeks to months and so on

We have completed Wave A and we are on Wave B. Wave A & C are impulsive wave which got 5 waves and Wave B is a correction wave so only got 3 waves ((a)), ((b)) & ((c)).

We completed subwave ((a)) ~ 8395 we have started subwave ((b)) which is going to be 0.5 - 0.8 of wave ((a)).

As you know now ((b)) waves only got 3 waves inside this subwave ((b)) we have wave (a),(b) & (c). We are in wave (c) which is 1.236 of wave (a) which is around 8180.
Also there is a possibility that it may go down further because ((b)) is 0.5 - 0.8 of ((a))

If this continue to go up that means wave ((b)) is completed and we are in the last wave ((c)). As you know this is an impulsive wave this got 5 waves (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v). We should be able to project wave (v) target more accurately when this wave starts

Until then target wave ((c)) or wave B is 1.236 of wave ((a)) which is around 8675. If you also take the resistance into this picture then we got the target range as 8.6 - 8.8k

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Wave E Projections (6.5 - 7.2K)

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We are in Wave (E) of the (A)(B)(C)(D)(E) Corrective Wave Pattern. Wave (E) got 3 Waves ABC
and we are now in the Wave C which is an impulsive wave with 5 waves inside

((i)) ((iii)) and ((v)) are impulsive waves and waves ((ii)) and ((iv)) are corrective waves.
We are in the subwave (iii) of the Wave ((i))

You can do some scalping in the end of Wave ((i)) and ((iii)) and the BEST buyzone is the end wave (iii) of wave ((v)) @ around 7.2 - 7.4k as it will be hard to get in the end of wave (v) of wave ((v)).

Comment:

Wave (iii) did 100$ more than we expected. This means that wave C going going further down. Here is the updated chart so far. Please note that you need to keep updating the waves after every wave is completed to get an accurate wave v projection to exit or enter another trade

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You can't just depend on EW so i use other indicators / candlestick patters / support & resistance / MA to confirm the waves and here's what i found:

Looks like A of (D) = A of (E) and C of (D) going to be almost the same as C of (E) when you draw the subwaves of C

Comment:

Looks like we got extreme selling pressure here. Looks like we just finished wave ((i)) and there is 4 more waves to go and this will probably take until first week of June to complete this wave C.

Usually wave (ii) retrace upto 0.618 - 0.8 but we only had 0.5 retracement. wave (iv) only did 0.236 instead of 0.5 - 0.618.This is the normal behavior with high pressure selloffs.

So if we continue with this pressure we may go down to 6K or may be even lower.

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