So, we see a drop to Fib 0.786, but if you look at the entire history of the Bitcoin price movement, you can see larger plums:
in 2011, the price rolled back to -94% (from $ 35 to $ 2),
also this year there is a drain to -83% (from $ 12 to $ 2),
then draining in 2013 to -82% (from $ 259 to $ 45),
then there was a drop in 2015 to -86% (from $ 1140 to $ 150),
and now they have fallen just to -78% (from 19,900 to 4,300), corresponding to the Fibonacci resistance level.
Therefore, to go below the chances are quite real. Level 3000, for example, corresponds to a decrease of -84.9%, and 2000 is equal to -89.9%. Thus, the downtrend may continue, but not without corrections of such drops! The now formed symmetrical triangle from the past post is a warning rather than a further expected forecast. In general, now the picture is bullish, we need a rebound, we need a correction of the fall. Most indicators look positive, we can get an increase to the levels from which we began to fall, but a break above may be a bull trap, after which the price will continue to follow the downward trend.
in 2011, the price rolled back to -94% (from $ 35 to $ 2),
also this year there is a drain to -83% (from $ 12 to $ 2),
then draining in 2013 to -82% (from $ 259 to $ 45),
then there was a drop in 2015 to -86% (from $ 1140 to $ 150),
and now they have fallen just to -78% (from 19,900 to 4,300), corresponding to the Fibonacci resistance level.
Therefore, to go below the chances are quite real. Level 3000, for example, corresponds to a decrease of -84.9%, and 2000 is equal to -89.9%. Thus, the downtrend may continue, but not without corrections of such drops! The now formed symmetrical triangle from the past post is a warning rather than a further expected forecast. In general, now the picture is bullish, we need a rebound, we need a correction of the fall. Most indicators look positive, we can get an increase to the levels from which we began to fall, but a break above may be a bull trap, after which the price will continue to follow the downward trend.
It is worth paying attention to the formation of past cycles of growth and decline: having reached its maximum, the price consolidates (green area) and then returns to the area where growth started (red area). This pattern can be found on different timeframes and various assets. Now, on the scale of 3-days, one can see that the movement is too long and the price remains in the consolidation area, this indicates that the cycle is not yet complete and the market should move closer to the area where the fall has started (mirroring the growth and fall cycles). Such a scenario takes place and is very likely in our situation, moreover, the market can update the bottoms before making a rebound, and the prolonged nature of the current movement once again confirms this (otherwise we would have moved up). It seems that the end of January and the beginning of February will not be "green", but may give the possibility of a good drawdown for the purchase and further trade in long. Large scale indicators also confirm the likelihood of a decline before forming a rebound.
If we compare the fractal movement and a similar pattern of 2014, we see that after the bear market period, a flat has come, but with a subsequent bullran on new records. Now the situation may repeat, MACD is very bearish and not ready to unfold globally, the RSI may still be in the oversold area for a long time, when the price at this moment will move sideways (blue rectangle). The main thing is to pay attention: the market before moving up makes a puncture down, keep this in mind!