BTC/USD - Wait For One Of These Scenarios Before Opening Trade
Hello TradingView,
This is a simple but meaningful chart analysis. I'll keep it brief and to the point so the key items are listed below.
BEAR CASE SCENARIO:
BULL CASE SCENARIO:
WHAT TO DO RIGHT NOW:
Nothing. Watch and wait, and only open trades when one of the above scenarios plays out.
Lastly, since I cannot give financial advice, I will share what I personally will implement during these volatile times. Usually I keep a tight stop loss, but recent stops have made me rethink this since our spreads are so gigantic on some of these runs. I personally will be opting for smaller position sizes and adding 2-5% to my traditional stop loss zones. If one of the above cases follows my scenario arrows to a T, I might implement no stop loss at all, take a small position, and then add to it as things continue to go my way.
Happy Hunting!
--Cache
This is a simple but meaningful chart analysis. I'll keep it brief and to the point so the key items are listed below.
BEAR CASE SCENARIO:
- We may have broken through support on a bearish pennant.
- Price would need to break below $25,355 before the pennant would be considered valid.
- Furthermore, we should not open a trade until price... 1) breaks 25,355 2) retraces back to one of our supply areas on the chart 3) continues downward movement with volume to support.
- If these 3 things happen... I believe all hell will break loose and we could easily see this projected bottom of $11,000.
BULL CASE SCENARIO:
- Price will need to make a STRONG break above $32,300 before I'm convinced we are out of the woods. Strong meaning a surge in volume.
- I would not open a trade until price broke 32,300 and retraced back to either the bear pennant resistance line or the purple rectangular zone shown on the chart.
- If price doesn't bounce off of this zone and breaks down through it, then bullish case is invalid.
- If we get a bullish bump without volume to support it, then bullish case is invalid.
- If bullish case plays out then I believe we will see a price objective of mid 50k's - which was calculated from a separate Point and Figure analysis.
WHAT TO DO RIGHT NOW:
Nothing. Watch and wait, and only open trades when one of the above scenarios plays out.
Lastly, since I cannot give financial advice, I will share what I personally will implement during these volatile times. Usually I keep a tight stop loss, but recent stops have made me rethink this since our spreads are so gigantic on some of these runs. I personally will be opting for smaller position sizes and adding 2-5% to my traditional stop loss zones. If one of the above cases follows my scenario arrows to a T, I might implement no stop loss at all, take a small position, and then add to it as things continue to go my way.
Happy Hunting!
--Cache
Comment:
It's not looking good as of today. I predict that if we hit the 21k mark then we are going to see a rapid catalyst move to the low teens. Microstrategy has a call at 21k for all their Bitcoin holdings and the effect of a wipeout could be massive.
Comment:
11K is still on the table.