BTC/USD : Trading range configuration (28,800 <=> 69,000)

BTC/USD : Trading range configuration (28,800 <=> 69,000)

How to describe the price action on goin on crypto and BTC/USD on current level? First of all it always depending the timeframe you are focus on.
Here i will present the BTC/USD picture with the same way im used to do it since year :

1/ Situation on Strategic horizon (6 to 12 Month)
2/ Situation on Tactical horizon (1 to 3 weeks)
3/ Potential short-term trade idea (activable trade regarding R/R)
4/ Situation of the BTC regarding the global macro aspect (Multi asset classes and performance of the BTC within Crypto asset)

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1/ Strategic Horizon (Range before rise)

Looking at (Monthly/weekly/daily Chart elements), the market is progressing within a significant bullish trend with a many chart, wave, and indicators occurence showing 28,800 as a Strategic support to keep safe in weekly close i order to keep the bullish trend valid and anticipating a new ATH towards 77 000 before in the best case 100/120K (max before significant bearish market)

Main element : Elliot wave showing a configuration (Corrective wave in Zigzag Flat) to shape wave (IV) consolidating the full up trend from 3000 to 69K. A wave (IV) is totally logic here and quite healthy in order to accumulate new bullish momentum on indicators to push the market higher

Once we say that it is normal to follow the downside swing on a shorter horizon....

2/ Tactical Horizon (bearish towards 34800 max 28,800 - As long as 54000 remains resistance)

The 24/09/2021, the combinaison between chart (double top test), Indicators (Divergence rsi + death cross MM daily) + Range configuration (Elliot) on Strategic horizon gave a clear exhaustion signal to fade from the swing up off the range (recovery after the 2020 sell off), 3 weeks after it was the ETH and 4 weeks after it was the CMC 200 index Ex BTC (TOP 200 crypto index) which gave the same signal. It means following this analysis a reduction to the exposure on BTC at 67400 and all the exposure on BTC at 64200 to wait the construction of the downside swing (69000 to 34800) before accumulating new bullish position on BTCUSD.

Today The closest key tactical resistance is setup at 54K (See Daily element) MM resistance + Elliot/fibo key level are defining the key resitance to follow the continuation of the drop in order to reach 42400 area before the tactical target at 34800 (If we are following the Elliot wave account, we are now engaging the wave 5 from (c) from (IV) it means the drop towards the support after having consolidate in flat move the last past 20 days (accumulation before drop)

3H hours chart element reverse bearish today after having attempt to accumumate in bullish area in order to test the daily key resistance element (failed)

So the logic now is to wait that the daily chart element at least provide exhaustion bearish signal by providing at least a divergence close to the strategic key support (as you can see the RSI is just below 50% so there is room and time... so no rush to buy the dips now....

3/ Trading idea
In the configuration selling all the dead cat bounce are good even now... The first Key resitance level to setup stop position (robust one i mean) is at 51050.... targeting 42400 as free lunch target lets say that between 49000and 50000 we can find a good area to short (i mean on intrday basis), if the market bounce till there (possible as long as 47000 stay support today or tomorrow). But keep in mind that only 54000 K remains the doors to break to invalidate any change of the current bearish dynamic. Mixe conviction to see larger bounce here but in case of 51050 Stay on my perspective the only strong intraday key resistance.

4/ BTC in macro view

Here an article (i designed it) : learn.akt.io/cms/glo...macro-december-2021/
(keep in mind the level on SP500 are on weekly basis - so 4760 has been challenged but the zone is 4760/4830)

Have a nice evening

Jean

Trade closed: target reached:

Range pattern completed by reaching 32K area as expected

The bull run is in progress (last risk below 45300 to visit again 30K28K before rise - but this scenario looks less probable now)

in any case of last dip we are in a strong buy mode on a long-term run.