BTC - A Rational Outlook

This may not be the best time to put out a technical update, but given the hysteria surrounding this rally, I figure I should add my opinion to the mix. To clarify my first point regarding the bad timing of commenting on a technical update, BTC is very much in the void at the moment. If you look at the chart, you will notice there are absolutely no reference points between 11600 and 17000 (at least, no significant reference points). We could surge straight to 17k, or maybe we will see a correction back to 11600, or even 10k. The point is, we need inflection points in the price action to use as reference points going forward. In most cases, we say we need greater volatility, in both directions, to create the zig zags in price action on the chart. In the case of BTC, we have had an explosion in volatility this year, but for the most part it has been predominantly upside volatility. Without some downside deviation, things will remain absurdly parabolic, with nothing to reference and little information to trade on.

So what does this all mean? For now, if you’re long, sit tight ad enjoy the ride. If you’re worried about BTC getting a bit overextended here (A very rational concern at this point), and fear a larger correction, put in some stop losses around the previous levels of support we’ve been watching (11600 or 10000). However, keep in mind, a retest of the previous top near 20k is not outrageous given where we are trading right now. Just a 50-55% move and we are back at 20k.

Comment:

Big surge up to 13600, almost 1000 more from when I originally posted this update. A lot of this could be driven on FOMO. Continuing to watch closely.

Comment:

We now have a correction back to 11600, the exact level pointed out in the original post.