Hello everyone!
I have seen a lot of 'overly optimistic' bull channels, warning that if this narrow and steep unrealistic channel breaks upwards or downwards, that it we will revert to bearish/bullish momentum. These 'predictions' are all over the place. I think that these narrow channels are not realistic for crypto. Crypto has too much volatility.
In my opinion, the Dec-January spike could not be sustained because it bubbled out of the usual bull trend channel, and we saw a good correction afterwards, This spike was simply too much growth for bitcoin. I think we have now returned back to more 'normal' levels of growth.
I think it is more realistic to view the current bull channel at the same rate of increase as the previous normal bull channel, and also wider as current channels have been. From this point of view, it does appear that bitcoin will make increases, with swings, just over longer more realistic time periods.
In short, we have broken out of the wide bear channel, and it looks like we returned to a wide bull channel. Don't get too caught up in narrow channels because they will only be disappointing in crypto, and will continuously make you believe we are turning from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
Last but not least, this is not any trading advice, this is just my opinion on what is more sensible for bitcoin.
Cheers ~ Frix
I have seen a lot of 'overly optimistic' bull channels, warning that if this narrow and steep unrealistic channel breaks upwards or downwards, that it we will revert to bearish/bullish momentum. These 'predictions' are all over the place. I think that these narrow channels are not realistic for crypto. Crypto has too much volatility.
In my opinion, the Dec-January spike could not be sustained because it bubbled out of the usual bull trend channel, and we saw a good correction afterwards, This spike was simply too much growth for bitcoin. I think we have now returned back to more 'normal' levels of growth.
I think it is more realistic to view the current bull channel at the same rate of increase as the previous normal bull channel, and also wider as current channels have been. From this point of view, it does appear that bitcoin will make increases, with swings, just over longer more realistic time periods.
In short, we have broken out of the wide bear channel, and it looks like we returned to a wide bull channel. Don't get too caught up in narrow channels because they will only be disappointing in crypto, and will continuously make you believe we are turning from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
Last but not least, this is not any trading advice, this is just my opinion on what is more sensible for bitcoin.
Cheers ~ Frix
Comment:
Feel free to leave a comment behind :) I think we will be bullish until we drop out of this wider gray channel. This could follow after another crazy bubble breakout as we saw in Dec-Jan. It was an emotional spectacle. For this to happen we would have to break out of this wider channel upwards again.
Comment:
Once 9.7k gets broken I see no major obstructions until 11.7k. We are hovering 9.7k already, which is an excellent development by itself. Cheers and good luck :)
Comment:
Narrow channel broke as expected. Many TAers are calling the end of the bull, I don't think so quite yet.
The next level to watch will be 8k.
- It could bounce and stay in the broader bull channel
- It could break and fall back into the broader bear channel
- It could never fall to 8k
I will watch this closely before I make my next trade.. good luck!
The next level to watch will be 8k.
- It could bounce and stay in the broader bull channel
- It could break and fall back into the broader bear channel
- It could never fall to 8k
I will watch this closely before I make my next trade.. good luck!
Comment:
As mentioned before - the next level to watch will be 8k. We are now in a no-trade zone. Have patience here, sure you could make a few bucks, but you may as well go to a casino and have some fun doing it.
A break below 7k could mean a resumption of the big bear channel from Dec/Jan high. Interesting to see here is that once the "unrealistic narrow bull channel" broke, there has been some big panic and near-uncontrollable drops.
Three things are apparent here:
- It signals first that people were holding very strongly to this narrow channel (which is just unrealistic for crypto) and fled the scene when it broke (many TAs were covering this narrow channel and announcing a resumption of the bears).
- A second factor is failing to breach the psychological 10k on this run (which meant an exit from smart longs who bought low, and an exit of the lambo peeps realizing they wont be millionaires yet).
- A third factor is failing to reach a new high compared to the last bull run, which means smart longs are waiting for a new low entry point. This could explain the low buying pressure are new lows are exploring - no big bounces up. A lower bull high also means that it is possible for a newer low. This could bring us below the previous 6k levels even.
In the scenario that the broader bear channel gets resumed, we can drop as low as 4k. In this scenario, 4k-4.5k is where I would set my incremental buys. I would not change this unless I see a new rounding bottom.
In the scenario that the broader bull gets resumed, I would wait until I see some confidence.
Last, we could also be forming a consolidating triangle if you look at september 2017 low and dec high, we are waving in between the two. This could be true if we consolidate further around 8.2k. If this is the case, I would wait for some confirmation of a breakout upwards before making a decision.
Good luck out there! Remember that patience doesn't cost you anything :) Always seek to make smart trades at highest risk/profit ratios. Do not worry about selling for profits, and do not worry for missing out on strange unexpected pumps.
A break below 7k could mean a resumption of the big bear channel from Dec/Jan high. Interesting to see here is that once the "unrealistic narrow bull channel" broke, there has been some big panic and near-uncontrollable drops.
Three things are apparent here:
- It signals first that people were holding very strongly to this narrow channel (which is just unrealistic for crypto) and fled the scene when it broke (many TAs were covering this narrow channel and announcing a resumption of the bears).
- A second factor is failing to breach the psychological 10k on this run (which meant an exit from smart longs who bought low, and an exit of the lambo peeps realizing they wont be millionaires yet).
- A third factor is failing to reach a new high compared to the last bull run, which means smart longs are waiting for a new low entry point. This could explain the low buying pressure are new lows are exploring - no big bounces up. A lower bull high also means that it is possible for a newer low. This could bring us below the previous 6k levels even.
In the scenario that the broader bear channel gets resumed, we can drop as low as 4k. In this scenario, 4k-4.5k is where I would set my incremental buys. I would not change this unless I see a new rounding bottom.
In the scenario that the broader bull gets resumed, I would wait until I see some confidence.
Last, we could also be forming a consolidating triangle if you look at september 2017 low and dec high, we are waving in between the two. This could be true if we consolidate further around 8.2k. If this is the case, I would wait for some confirmation of a breakout upwards before making a decision.
Good luck out there! Remember that patience doesn't cost you anything :) Always seek to make smart trades at highest risk/profit ratios. Do not worry about selling for profits, and do not worry for missing out on strange unexpected pumps.
Comment:
* The first sentence should say: the next level to watch was 8k, which we broke yesterday and today. We are now hovering around 7.4k, heading towards the big bear channel again.
Comment:
* lowest risk/profit ratio