So far BTC managed to crawl up to resistance around $6000. I didn't expect BTC to reach that high before re-test of $3000, but there it is. Despite of this unexpected move, I mentioned erlier that it is possible - yet not that likely.
Does it mean that BTC is super bullish now? Well... I can see, that sentiment is very bullish right now. But from my point of view, BTC just managed to test the major resistence... And there are several bearish signs as well.
Pushing through that resistance, which has been building for a year, whithout any difficulties, that seems quite unlikely to me. Another reason is that, I still think that there would be a lot of people waiting for it to recover some losses from November.
If I have to consider the bullish scenario in the longterm, it is that one charted above. A test of $4200 area. It would be a test of the major support, and the 200 daily MA. From that point, testing the $6000 resistance again, another rejection and in the process, printing some sort of an ascending triangle, ending up by a breakout above the $6000 area. At that point, BTC would finally enter a bull market.
I can imagine some sort of false breakout above $6000, to liquidate some shorts. But I wouldn't count on trend reversal just yet... At least, this is certainly not a level to buy, that is at least super risky, if not dumb. I will change my mind if BTC actually push trough 6K+ and stays above, but I don't think this is likely.
Please, let me know your thoughts in the comment section :)
Does it mean that BTC is super bullish now? Well... I can see, that sentiment is very bullish right now. But from my point of view, BTC just managed to test the major resistence... And there are several bearish signs as well.
Pushing through that resistance, which has been building for a year, whithout any difficulties, that seems quite unlikely to me. Another reason is that, I still think that there would be a lot of people waiting for it to recover some losses from November.
If I have to consider the bullish scenario in the longterm, it is that one charted above. A test of $4200 area. It would be a test of the major support, and the 200 daily MA. From that point, testing the $6000 resistance again, another rejection and in the process, printing some sort of an ascending triangle, ending up by a breakout above the $6000 area. At that point, BTC would finally enter a bull market.
I can imagine some sort of false breakout above $6000, to liquidate some shorts. But I wouldn't count on trend reversal just yet... At least, this is certainly not a level to buy, that is at least super risky, if not dumb. I will change my mind if BTC actually push trough 6K+ and stays above, but I don't think this is likely.
Please, let me know your thoughts in the comment section :)
Comment:
Comment:
Some can say, that I am in disbelief. Well my jaw has dropped, I cannot deny that :D
But at least I can admit that I was wrong, unlike certain someones here on TV... Everybody can be wrong, no one has a crystal ball.
Let me explain myself. I am not saying, that it can't move further at this point. But I am saying that this stinks. A LOT. This move came up too soon, too quickly, too big.
If you didn't catch this, there will be very likely better opportunities to buy than at current level. Just check the history... The FOMO really kicked in this time, that doesn't mean it can't retrace 50%, even from now... I am just very cautious.
But at least I can admit that I was wrong, unlike certain someones here on TV... Everybody can be wrong, no one has a crystal ball.
Let me explain myself. I am not saying, that it can't move further at this point. But I am saying that this stinks. A LOT. This move came up too soon, too quickly, too big.
If you didn't catch this, there will be very likely better opportunities to buy than at current level. Just check the history... The FOMO really kicked in this time, that doesn't mean it can't retrace 50%, even from now... I am just very cautious.
It is certainly a huge slap in the face of bears. Shorts are working against them afterall and we have probably a very significant short squeeze after a long time.
Maybe the 6K was too obvious I guess.
I don't dare to guess where this massive pump will end. But let me say this: Don't be so full of yourselves bulls. These kind of pumps in bear markets usually don't end up well. The move is almost parabolic by now. I can smell the greed, the certainty about a bull market everywhere... If buying near 6K wasn't very wise from TA's perspective, buying here is pure gambling now. But I know, you'll buy anyway. Pump it to 10K! :D.