Psychological Analysis, key levels, and LOOMING CRYPTO DISASTER

BTC Runs on narratives and rejections, with catalysts of news and volatility. These are the most important narratives to consider:

BTC is in the largest retracement since it's beginning. More people have gotten rekt in 2018 than any other year. Exchanges were literally shutting down for weeks and months from massive, massive creation of new accounts. These people mostly signed up in January, Febuary, March and April when the bear market was recking bulls the hardest.

Novemeber was supposed to be THE ONE. It was supposed to go to 100K. If not now, than can it ever in November? If it doesn't now, will it ever? Let's do some hard deductions.

• In order for ICOs ponzis ( just calling it what is... you know it's true) to fail and stop being profitable, they have to ALL GO TO ZERO and STAY THERE.
  
• -> if they don't now, they might not ever go to zero. Lets consider what will happen if they don''t.
  

2 possible scenarios of not crashing:
1.) BTC stays afloat after going to 6K

• It then goes to ATH in 2018, overcoming the sheer crash of November so far. (Which is unlikely, by the way. In order to reach 100K it has to be around 8K and double every TWO WEEKS STARTING RIGHT NOW) Somehow it overcomes this and has another huge crash in Janaury
  
• -> If it went down this 1/2 paths of not going to zero, it would either start another bear market and crypto has another chance to fail in 2019 (the market is probably in much of an upheaval and evolution right now to repeat itself like this ) or start a bull market and it may never fail until 2022 (even less likely, for the same reason).
  

2.) BTC hard crashes to around 4500 or less and then tries to go back up
This is unlikely for a number of reasons

• If a BTC hard crashes like it's doing right now, it usually stays down UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH. The only chance for it to reboot to ATH is if it does so in DECEMBER
  
• -> if the bull market starting narrative failed in November of all times, it can do so again and can also fail in December
  

Reasons it could fail THIS YEAR:

MORE HARD DEDUCTIONS

• If BTC does go to 3K, most people believed a failed bull market and the BCH hard fork short opportunity are the perfect time.
  
• Once it does this, BTC miners will start exiting and it could cause an even more massive panic
  
• SEC rejections are looming and this could be yet another catalyst to the situation
  

The famous internet crash wasn't a temporary hypothermia where it was able to recover. It was a nuclear winter from which ponzi stocks never recovered.

My advice?
If you want to go long, wait until confirmation in December or a HARD, HARD confirmation that this crash is reaching higher highs in November
Don't trade the bottom on leverage. The market will be volatile and undecided in this time. You'll probably get trapped out over and over again like last time
It's probably best to hold fiat patiently until you're completely sure
A possibly very lucrative trade might be shorting depressive altcoins into the ground. Bitcoin Cash in 1 week might be one.

Comment:

I noticed that my ideas were valid however BCH was driving the prices up temporarily, trying to reach its own MA points. His drive up BTC past it’s own MAs so I took massive profits on my previous short and waited for the pumps to end. I entered a huge short on ETH when it hit the 200MA at 211 with high 15m RSI and am now doing extremely well on it. BTC was doing some giant price spikes, which could have been whales fighting each other. The moves caused by BCH made it look like a breakout on the 4H. I didn’t trust it for this reason, as the nearest plausible high target is around 6390, too high, since BCH would soon drag it back down. BCH broke downward bear flag and is likely doomed

I’m watching it closely to see if it has a meaningful breakout or emerged pattern

Comment:

I saw the downward movement failing over and over again so I opened a x50 long on ETH right below neckline predicting it would trap hard. I am planning on riding the impending bull flags as the pump was hard and is successfully following what I predicted will be double or triple bull flags. My long is safe and I’ll probably keep it until the last fib line gets overextended and I should probably be able to retire soon

Comment:

Clarification: longer ETH at 206. Also, I find that my principles on this post were sound, but I might be thinking too long term. Bullishness and downward rejections didn’t merit it going down to 6K- it was obvious it would fight it every $50 along e way. My main lesson learned is to think less in extremes. It always bounces, and he RSI always resets, the only question is how hard it retraces, if at all, while doing so. Now that the right shoulder bounces, it will be extremely hard to regrow bearish morale, since that was the a battle with heavy losses- equivalent to maybe the the leader dying in battle