Sunday April 24th, looking like the Daily Candle is shaping up to be a Doji so far, which given that the direction for the last 4 days has been solidly down, might indicate a temporary reprieve. Also of note we see that price has put in a couple of very decent wicks whenever price has dipped into the 38K region (coincidentally Goldman Sacks came out several weeks back with a statement that Bitcoin was "fairly valued" at about that level. Also the potential for a diamond bottom formed at about 38500-ish. Nevertheless, this is just idle speculation at this point and when futures (CME and also Equities) open at about 6 pm EST, we will have a better idea.
Bullish Thesis:
Those wicks might now indicate some "trapped" short interest, which means that if price gets pushed higher, they might cover and push price even higher. If we print a doji, price might reverse hard given how bearish the sentiment seems at the moment. RSI seems to have formed a bottom (35 approx), and is looking like there is a bit of bullish divergence so long as 38400 remains intact I suspect. Decent chance that said doji doesn't print and instead becomes a bullish engulfing candle in the next few hours. There is a trendline forming with a dynamic support connecting the bottom of those wicks with bounces creating higher lows since January 33K first, then February 34K, and most recently bears have not even been able to push price down to the main trendline for the time being to attempt to even hit 37K, and if they can't do this in the next week...
Bearish Thesis: Pretty much a momentum case here looking at the chart, but the fast pace of the decline was interrupted by the weekend. Multiple hard rejections of higher prices, first at 48K, then most recently at 43K indicate that lower is a distinct possibility. Bear Flag on the daily. Long wicks (to the downside) tend to get retested.
Overall, I'm buying (DCA) and not selling in this area, but I still think we can go lower. So far I am comfortable placing starting bids in the low 38K region, and if they don't fill, I'm good with that. As for Alts, many decent ones are also on sale, but even still, I'm looking for real indications that bitcoin has bottomed prior to engaging in such speculation.
Bullish Thesis:
Those wicks might now indicate some "trapped" short interest, which means that if price gets pushed higher, they might cover and push price even higher. If we print a doji, price might reverse hard given how bearish the sentiment seems at the moment. RSI seems to have formed a bottom (35 approx), and is looking like there is a bit of bullish divergence so long as 38400 remains intact I suspect. Decent chance that said doji doesn't print and instead becomes a bullish engulfing candle in the next few hours. There is a trendline forming with a dynamic support connecting the bottom of those wicks with bounces creating higher lows since January 33K first, then February 34K, and most recently bears have not even been able to push price down to the main trendline for the time being to attempt to even hit 37K, and if they can't do this in the next week...
Bearish Thesis: Pretty much a momentum case here looking at the chart, but the fast pace of the decline was interrupted by the weekend. Multiple hard rejections of higher prices, first at 48K, then most recently at 43K indicate that lower is a distinct possibility. Bear Flag on the daily. Long wicks (to the downside) tend to get retested.
Overall, I'm buying (DCA) and not selling in this area, but I still think we can go lower. So far I am comfortable placing starting bids in the low 38K region, and if they don't fill, I'm good with that. As for Alts, many decent ones are also on sale, but even still, I'm looking for real indications that bitcoin has bottomed prior to engaging in such speculation.
Trade active:
Just an sentiment/psychological observation - everyone is expecting down...therefore it doesn't happen.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Happened kind of quick and did not post, but I ran a small short and have covered already. 39620-39255. I am in the process of nibbling via spot tho..We can go lower still, so keeping some reserve just in case.