I was curious to compare last September (2020) with what we might be able to expect this September (2021), So I went and charted EW on BTC last year.
My thoughts:
I believe we are currently in wave 3 of the 5 EW on BTC at the moment (which is most likely wave 1 of a macro wave taking us to $100k). My prediction was hit $54k, then drop to around $48k by mid September and then start wave 5, so I checked out what happened last year.
So around this time and September 2020, BTC topped around 18th August 2020 at the top of wave 5 which also included a leading diagonal pattern. The leading diagonal broke support and retested which was a good opportunity for a short around the 1st/2nd of September 2020.
chart below:
Then BTC bottomed out of the ABC correction around the 10th September, we put in a higher low around the 24th September (when old contracts close/new open), we broke out and confirmed uptrend again around 9th October, then we retested broken resistance come support and continued with the massive bulltrend around 16th October.
Daily chart showing this:
Now, what does that mean? Well this is where it gets interesting:
That whole move in September 2020 from wave 1 to end of ABC correction took 181 days.
This current move on BTC has gone a lot quicker. EG: the EW on their own in September took 156 days. The current EW this year are only at 35 days, with end of August around 46 days, so it’s moving much quicker. (which puts more weight that this is just a mini EW inside a bigger WAVE 1 EW as wave 1 in 2020 alone took around 30 days which is more similar to the current move on BTC in 2021.
What I believe might happen is we will form a leading diagonal (orange lines) and hit $54k around end of august at the top of my wave 3 (blue lines) (which could also be the top of mini waves 5, which is all part of wave 1 macro).
Then we will start to put in the ABC Correction (light blue lines) and bottom out at around $48k on/around the 24th September which would be the bottom of my wave 4.
Then begin wave 5 around that time, create a new higher low around 2nd October, then break, close and retest around mid October to head up to previous ATH of $64-$66k which is the top of my wave 5…
Chart showing this:
Now, if you’re still interested in reading more, l was also keen to compare the moves and waves of 2020 to 2021.
Wave 1 in 2020 moved 96% - my Wave 1 in 2021 only moved 46% (which is also why I’m considering all my waves to be mini waves in a bigger wave 1 push as 88% move would put us around $54k….)
Wave 2 in 2020 retraced to 236 fibs – Wave 2 in 2021 retraced to 382 fibs… note: if this is indeed a bigger wave 1, a 236 fib retracement would land us at around $48k (hmmm interesting).
Wave 3 in 2020 moved 63% - Wave 3 in 2021 if we hit $54k would have moved 48%
Wave 4 in 2020 retraced to 382 fibs – wave 4 as per my prediction would retrace to $48k’ish which is 382 fibs.
Wave 5 in 2020 moved 41% & hit previous ATH of around $12k - my wave 5 prediction would move approx. 36% and also to previous ATH of $64k.
Chart showing this:
Time will tell I guess... stay safe!
My thoughts:
I believe we are currently in wave 3 of the 5 EW on BTC at the moment (which is most likely wave 1 of a macro wave taking us to $100k). My prediction was hit $54k, then drop to around $48k by mid September and then start wave 5, so I checked out what happened last year.
So around this time and September 2020, BTC topped around 18th August 2020 at the top of wave 5 which also included a leading diagonal pattern. The leading diagonal broke support and retested which was a good opportunity for a short around the 1st/2nd of September 2020.
chart below:
Daily chart showing this:
Now, what does that mean? Well this is where it gets interesting:
That whole move in September 2020 from wave 1 to end of ABC correction took 181 days.
This current move on BTC has gone a lot quicker. EG: the EW on their own in September took 156 days. The current EW this year are only at 35 days, with end of August around 46 days, so it’s moving much quicker. (which puts more weight that this is just a mini EW inside a bigger WAVE 1 EW as wave 1 in 2020 alone took around 30 days which is more similar to the current move on BTC in 2021.
What I believe might happen is we will form a leading diagonal (orange lines) and hit $54k around end of august at the top of my wave 3 (blue lines) (which could also be the top of mini waves 5, which is all part of wave 1 macro).
Then we will start to put in the ABC Correction (light blue lines) and bottom out at around $48k on/around the 24th September which would be the bottom of my wave 4.
Then begin wave 5 around that time, create a new higher low around 2nd October, then break, close and retest around mid October to head up to previous ATH of $64-$66k which is the top of my wave 5…
Chart showing this:
Now, if you’re still interested in reading more, l was also keen to compare the moves and waves of 2020 to 2021.
Wave 1 in 2020 moved 96% - my Wave 1 in 2021 only moved 46% (which is also why I’m considering all my waves to be mini waves in a bigger wave 1 push as 88% move would put us around $54k….)
Wave 2 in 2020 retraced to 236 fibs – Wave 2 in 2021 retraced to 382 fibs… note: if this is indeed a bigger wave 1, a 236 fib retracement would land us at around $48k (hmmm interesting).
Wave 3 in 2020 moved 63% - Wave 3 in 2021 if we hit $54k would have moved 48%
Wave 4 in 2020 retraced to 382 fibs – wave 4 as per my prediction would retrace to $48k’ish which is 382 fibs.
Wave 5 in 2020 moved 41% & hit previous ATH of around $12k - my wave 5 prediction would move approx. 36% and also to previous ATH of $64k.
Chart showing this:
Time will tell I guess... stay safe!