The red area is the potential neckline of a that would provide some symmetry and the outcome of that could result in either a retrace to the 0.5 fib of the recent leg up from the lows or a bounce back above $10k.
However, if we break down below that with force, we could continue to the pink box which would go some way to retracing that Marabuzo clearing the 0.236 fib and touching the long-term in place since Jul 2017 on a linear scale. This would provide us with a stronger platform to punch through the $10k barrier. I am acutely aware of the parallels with the past and this scenario would provide an amazing launching pad to repea the 2013/14 pattern so we can head for higher highs before retracing all the way to the bottom again.
The case here is that we are retracing to the low before we can reach ATHs again which is potentially $4,500.
Option 1 - it breaks to the upside, a measured move would land us around the aforementioned 0.23 fib and 7600.
Option B - it breaks to the downside, a measured move would land us around the .618 and 6500 or below to the .786. At that point we begin to get close to long term trendline which started on July 2016.
Oscillators also offer a mixed picture;
-1hr - we are mid range RSI after having oversold, the MACD MAs are continuing to rise and almost reaching mid point, and the 50, 100 and 200 MAs are all above = bullish.
- 4 hr - RSI is just above the oversold line, MACD is crossing to the upside and MAs are above, however the 200 is just above us providing some resistance = bullish but not so much.
- 1D - yesterday resolved as what could be considered a doji after a downtrend, RSI is at midpoint after being oversold but it is below the 60 point that provided resistance throughout this bear trend, MACD MAs have crossed and heading down, 200 MA is far above us & 100 MA is providing resistance and 50 is providing support = neutral to bearish.
Conclusion = in the short term indicators point to a rally but in the midterm to we continue to look bearish. We'll see the effect Consensus has but a touch of that trendline prior to new highs might give the market more confidence to reach the 9500 level of the Feb/March double top.
Currently RSI oversold on 30min, 1hr, 4 hr and almost there on the daily so 2 options;
- It continues to the red box to retest that Marabozu I have been banging on about since the 12th of Apr causing the daily RSI to be oversold as well.
- It takes a pause to retest the 0.5 fib resistance or 6850 price level...
Will keep watching but I am really hoping for a touch of that long-term trend line and clarification as to whether we are going to aim for the $10k resistance again or finally head to the much branded about $4k bottom so we can just get out of this bear trend... I have had about enough now
Though it is worth noting that this has already happened in the BTCUSD pair....
Not looking too hopeful at the moment and below that is only the red box where the support is... That would lead us to severly oversold if it happens quickly which would set us up better for a bounce.