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Bitcoin Dominance and its Future as a gauge

CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D   Market Cap BTC Dominance, %

The Bitcoin Dominance has been a near Vital part of the Crypto trading Experience for many people, essentially showing us the ebb and Flow of the primary Crypto money flow.
As we can see, from around 2016, things changed as ALTS came in and began competing for the available money in a bigger way than previously..
The BTC.D dropped sharply around 200 days after that halving in 2016 and. to date, was the largest Fall ever, due to the transfer of money from BTC into the ALTs world.
BTC.D began rising after the 2017 BTC ATH and, on average, Rose till the next halving date.
But this tine, after halving, It dropped from around 80% to 60% and then rose again till Dec 2020.
From there, it drooped sharply, ALT season began , BTC ATH was achieved again, twice, while BTC.D Dropped.
From the First ATH, March 2021, PA Ranged effectively until late 2022, when it began rising to the levels we see today, which are Noticeably lower that previous occasions, due mostly to the ALT coins.
What needs to be noted here is the simple fact that BTC. Dominance DROPS as we approach Bitcoin All Time Highs. This creates DIVERGENCE in effect. This has happened Twice.
The BIG question is really, Will it happen again ?

This time round, it is the ETF world that will effect the BTC.D and it will Keep BTC.D at a level outside of the retail market. Probably leading to a smaller Drop after the period after Halving.
And what will this do to the ALT SEASON >
Bitcoin ETF do not guarantee that money will remain in Bitcoin...we have recently seen the first RED fday of money inflows ( meaning they were out Flows) from the ETF.
The things I am looking forward to seeing are this
1) Will BTC.D PA Drop as we approach BTC ATH ? It would make little sense for the ETF market to sell off its BTC while the price Range RISES....so will we see that Divergence once again and if so, what will drive it ?
2) will shortage of supply lead to a sustained Price increase....thus creating a Higher Bitcoin Dominance ?
3) What will trigger ALT Season if money stays locked in Bitcoin, Keeping ~BTC.D high ? Retail is finding it a lot harder to enter Crypto ......
4) WILL The ALT season that surely must arrive, will be epic as the ETF crowd sell up after the ATH towards the end of 2025 ( My view and not advice )- BUT - this will only happen if other Crypto ETF are allowed......OR WILL IT
Only Time Will tell....The number of possibilities are endless.
I cannot wait to see what happens after this halving.........
be ready..be Cautious and be safe

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