Morevember is here and that means that now is the time for our monthly pick article.
October was a fruitful month for altcoins even though I recommended to stay 60 % BTC we still had some altcoins just in case, and the case has happened.
I was a little early with my BTC.D prediction, but I’ll stick to it in November, and I still think we need to see 55-60 domination levels on bitcoin before we can move further with altcoins. These are historically proven levels if you look at the chart.
Altseason was intense with all those NFTs, blockchain, and meme coins surging. Now is the time to cool down and give some room (and volume) for BTC to grow.
With all that in mind here’s my plan for November:
1. 70% BTC
2. 20% low cap altcoins
3. 10% high cap altcoins
I don’t like the idea to hold USDT this time because you simply can buy altcoins with BTC later and don’t fomo. I also don’t see any signs for crypto market to see major corrections anytime soon.
Now let’s get into more details:
1. BTC looking extremely good to hold right now with all these ETFs getting approved and more institutional money pouring in. Also, meme coin pumping is a great sign that overall volume in the market a bit tired of high cap altcoins and seeking more ways to unfold. USDT is not an option because fed funding rates are still low and money printer goes brrrr all the time.
2. Low cap altcoins are also good right now, especially ones of super-early stage, like the ones Maurizio does in Halvings Capital. Buying into such projects now will secure your investment till the late stage of the next altseason (because of vesting periods) when everything will be pumping due to BTC domination levels falling again. Also don’t forget about $LORDZ here I’m still cheering up for this project as I was 2 month ago, many good things to unfold soon.
3. I’d still leave some room for high cap altcoins because volume transfer simply takes time, and it may not happen overnight. But also mind that I always hold my long terms bet no matter what because I separate my trading and investment portfolios.
Now let’s check with our long term and short-term altcoin bets:
ETH. Ethereum has been in an uptrend since the end of September and, with all the favorable tailwinds added in the meantime, quickly hit a 5-month high. But what's next? Let's look at some on-chain metrics.
According to Glassnode, crypto exchanges collectively possess 14.7M ETH (about $59B), the lowest number since Nov 2018. The TVL in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract has reached a new ATH of $34.3B, demonstrating trust in ETH ecosystem. What's more, addresses are pretty much diamond handing ETH, and let's not forget that many of these players are also miners; if miners aren't selling, that's seriously bullish.
The fundamentals are strong, the big boys aren't selling, ETH 2.0 is on the horizon (Altair upgrade went live as of Oct 27, another step complete) - all these suppose the bull cycle for ETH is not likely to end any time soon.
LUNA. There are two things making me bullish on LUNA. First of all, it's a Columbus-5 upgrade, which introduced a LUNA burning mechanism. This change introduced deflationary pressure to the LUNA supply, and it could help boost its price both in the short term and certainly in the long term as the demand for the UST token will grow.
Secondly, the adoption of the IBC (inter-blockchain communication) standard which opens TERRA to a much wider adoption throughout the Cosmos ecosystem. Furthermore, opening the IBC floodgates could obviously lead to further deflation in the supply of LUNA because more will need to be burned in the process of minting UST in reaction to rising demand.
DOT. This year, DOT has witnessed many bullish events like listing on Coinbase, a $30M funding from an Asian VC fund, its ETNs trading on the German stock market, to name the most recent. However, it's been hard to find the evidence of these events in DOT's price action, and one major milestone that could easily take DOT to a new ATH is its own parachain slot auctions starting on Nov 11 (for which projects that wish to run on Polkadot, i.e., that wish to secure one of the around 100 parachain slots, will need DOT in order to make their bids during these auctions).
The auctions on Polkadot will work in the same way as in Kusama, a so-called incentivized testnet for Polkadot. Almost all projects that have won the first Kusama parachain auctions want to roll out their final product on Polkadot with big-name projects like Kylin Network, Darwinia Network, Equilibrium, Edgeware, Efinity, and others expected to participate in auctions and raise large quantities of DOT.
Kusama parachain auctions excited DOT investors who view KSM's success as a proxy of what can occur with DOT's price. And if to use KSM MC:DOT MC model to forecast the scope of Polkadot parachains, we can expect roughly $731M X 10.86 = $7.9B raised in the first DOT 10 auctions, which would rank DOT #5 in TVL!
1INCH. I included 1INCH in my portfolio almost every month since April this year and used to say that betting on 1inch you're like betting on all the DEXes at once. 1INCH has seen interest explode of late, largely due to a key listing on the Korean exchange Upbit. Even though the price bounced back, 1inch remains the dominant one on the market, accounting for almost two-thirds of overall volume. And as the guys from 1INCH keep on building, the project can become one of the most important in the world of crypto in the long term.
DYDX. DYdX has been the leader of the DEX futures space for over 2 months now. In fact, in less than a month, its trading volume jumped from $611M to more than $9B at one point.
What's more, dYdX offered perpetual contracts to traders within the U.S., which was a challenge for giants like Coinbase as can’t offer so because of legal reasons. If we observe the changing trends in the market, the demand for trading in futures was rising and now accounted for more than half the daily volume. Moreover, given that dYdX's trading volume is increasing exponentially daily, it's likely to continue seeing success in the DeFi landscape, just like how Uniswap cemented its position in the spot market.
ENJ. No surprise that Enjin is one of my favorite coins, is also included in my October pick, and I think it is going to be that platform that's just going to catapult the mainstream adoption.
Enjin laid the groundwork to build a generation of games on top of, instead of just rushing to launch money grab gimmicks that will fade away shortly. Efinity is most likely going to get a Polkadot parachain slot, and soon may become one of the main blockchains for gaming and NFT. Enjin's Q4 roadmap also includes the Paratoken Standard being developed for the Polkadot ecosystem, staking, a future web wallet, and more. Right ideas, in the right sector, at the right time.
With Jumpnet/Efinity, all we need is a few games to go mainstream and become successful. As Six Dragon's should launch on Playstation sometime in 2022, other game developers could follow (guess what limited-supply crypto users will need to mint items?)
ATOM. The first time I made a review on Cosmos was back in Nov 2019 and since then ATOM has made an impressive 9x. And I`m sure more to come. One of the biggest fundamental developments supporting the bullish mood towards ATOM is news about Cosmos-based DEX Osmosis raising $21M in a token sale from several key VCs.
Another interesting update is eToro, making ATOM available for trading to Australian users, and therefore to drive up its trading volume.
In addition, CoolWallet Pro has announced a staking option for its users holding ATOM tokens. Tendermint, the software development company behind Cosmos, and the ICF, have partnered with Forte, an organization building a blockchain platform for video games. With almost 3B gamers worldwide and immense interest surrounding NFTs, it will help propel Cosmos to a broader audience and solidify its place as a leading blockchain ecosystem.
And Q4 is expected to be exciting for Cosmos too. Gravity Bridge is to be launched soon, meaning new liquidity for ATOM on new DEXes with good rewards. Evmos, a new Cosmos hub, is in the works and set to launch by the end of this year. Also, Cosmos has announced the launch of a new blockchain Sagan, and while not much is known about it, it points to a new use case for ATOM token. As we see, there is tremendous activity in this ecosystem, all of which can bring more value to the ATOM asset over the coming months.
Okay so what do we have in the end?
I’m betting on BTC growth in the short term while still sticking to my long-term portfolio. Now it consists of the following coins: ETH, LUNA, DOT, COSMOS, ENJ, 1INCH, and DYDX.
These are the greatest and most fundamentally valuable coins I’m seeing at the moment. How much to allocate to each of these coins everybody should decide on their own.
I’ll be buying more of each once BTC reaches 55-60 domination levels, till then I’ll be hunting for great deals in Halvings Capital and be ready to sell projects once they reach exchanges, which is around 2-3 months from now. Some of them I will hold for a longer term.
Please keep in mind that, everything might change pretty quickly and I think you agree with me that one month scope is too distant for crypto. That being said, if you’d like to stick to what I’m doing on a daily basis, I suggest you to follow me on Twitter, as this is the easiest way for me to keep communication and update you quickly.
As usual, don’t follow my advice blindly, sometimes I make mistakes and may overlook something.
Also please don’t forget to share my analysis with your friends ASAP because it is very time-sensitive.
Good luck to you sirs and madams, may the Morevember vibes be with you.
October was a fruitful month for altcoins even though I recommended to stay 60 % BTC we still had some altcoins just in case, and the case has happened.
I was a little early with my BTC.D prediction, but I’ll stick to it in November, and I still think we need to see 55-60 domination levels on bitcoin before we can move further with altcoins. These are historically proven levels if you look at the chart.
Altseason was intense with all those NFTs, blockchain, and meme coins surging. Now is the time to cool down and give some room (and volume) for BTC to grow.
With all that in mind here’s my plan for November:
1. 70% BTC
2. 20% low cap altcoins
3. 10% high cap altcoins
I don’t like the idea to hold USDT this time because you simply can buy altcoins with BTC later and don’t fomo. I also don’t see any signs for crypto market to see major corrections anytime soon.
Now let’s get into more details:
1. BTC looking extremely good to hold right now with all these ETFs getting approved and more institutional money pouring in. Also, meme coin pumping is a great sign that overall volume in the market a bit tired of high cap altcoins and seeking more ways to unfold. USDT is not an option because fed funding rates are still low and money printer goes brrrr all the time.
2. Low cap altcoins are also good right now, especially ones of super-early stage, like the ones Maurizio does in Halvings Capital. Buying into such projects now will secure your investment till the late stage of the next altseason (because of vesting periods) when everything will be pumping due to BTC domination levels falling again. Also don’t forget about $LORDZ here I’m still cheering up for this project as I was 2 month ago, many good things to unfold soon.
3. I’d still leave some room for high cap altcoins because volume transfer simply takes time, and it may not happen overnight. But also mind that I always hold my long terms bet no matter what because I separate my trading and investment portfolios.
Now let’s check with our long term and short-term altcoin bets:
ETH. Ethereum has been in an uptrend since the end of September and, with all the favorable tailwinds added in the meantime, quickly hit a 5-month high. But what's next? Let's look at some on-chain metrics.
According to Glassnode, crypto exchanges collectively possess 14.7M ETH (about $59B), the lowest number since Nov 2018. The TVL in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract has reached a new ATH of $34.3B, demonstrating trust in ETH ecosystem. What's more, addresses are pretty much diamond handing ETH, and let's not forget that many of these players are also miners; if miners aren't selling, that's seriously bullish.
The fundamentals are strong, the big boys aren't selling, ETH 2.0 is on the horizon (Altair upgrade went live as of Oct 27, another step complete) - all these suppose the bull cycle for ETH is not likely to end any time soon.
LUNA. There are two things making me bullish on LUNA. First of all, it's a Columbus-5 upgrade, which introduced a LUNA burning mechanism. This change introduced deflationary pressure to the LUNA supply, and it could help boost its price both in the short term and certainly in the long term as the demand for the UST token will grow.
Secondly, the adoption of the IBC (inter-blockchain communication) standard which opens TERRA to a much wider adoption throughout the Cosmos ecosystem. Furthermore, opening the IBC floodgates could obviously lead to further deflation in the supply of LUNA because more will need to be burned in the process of minting UST in reaction to rising demand.
DOT. This year, DOT has witnessed many bullish events like listing on Coinbase, a $30M funding from an Asian VC fund, its ETNs trading on the German stock market, to name the most recent. However, it's been hard to find the evidence of these events in DOT's price action, and one major milestone that could easily take DOT to a new ATH is its own parachain slot auctions starting on Nov 11 (for which projects that wish to run on Polkadot, i.e., that wish to secure one of the around 100 parachain slots, will need DOT in order to make their bids during these auctions).
The auctions on Polkadot will work in the same way as in Kusama, a so-called incentivized testnet for Polkadot. Almost all projects that have won the first Kusama parachain auctions want to roll out their final product on Polkadot with big-name projects like Kylin Network, Darwinia Network, Equilibrium, Edgeware, Efinity, and others expected to participate in auctions and raise large quantities of DOT.
Kusama parachain auctions excited DOT investors who view KSM's success as a proxy of what can occur with DOT's price. And if to use KSM MC:DOT MC model to forecast the scope of Polkadot parachains, we can expect roughly $731M X 10.86 = $7.9B raised in the first DOT 10 auctions, which would rank DOT #5 in TVL!
1INCH. I included 1INCH in my portfolio almost every month since April this year and used to say that betting on 1inch you're like betting on all the DEXes at once. 1INCH has seen interest explode of late, largely due to a key listing on the Korean exchange Upbit. Even though the price bounced back, 1inch remains the dominant one on the market, accounting for almost two-thirds of overall volume. And as the guys from 1INCH keep on building, the project can become one of the most important in the world of crypto in the long term.
DYDX. DYdX has been the leader of the DEX futures space for over 2 months now. In fact, in less than a month, its trading volume jumped from $611M to more than $9B at one point.
What's more, dYdX offered perpetual contracts to traders within the U.S., which was a challenge for giants like Coinbase as can’t offer so because of legal reasons. If we observe the changing trends in the market, the demand for trading in futures was rising and now accounted for more than half the daily volume. Moreover, given that dYdX's trading volume is increasing exponentially daily, it's likely to continue seeing success in the DeFi landscape, just like how Uniswap cemented its position in the spot market.
ENJ. No surprise that Enjin is one of my favorite coins, is also included in my October pick, and I think it is going to be that platform that's just going to catapult the mainstream adoption.
Enjin laid the groundwork to build a generation of games on top of, instead of just rushing to launch money grab gimmicks that will fade away shortly. Efinity is most likely going to get a Polkadot parachain slot, and soon may become one of the main blockchains for gaming and NFT. Enjin's Q4 roadmap also includes the Paratoken Standard being developed for the Polkadot ecosystem, staking, a future web wallet, and more. Right ideas, in the right sector, at the right time.
With Jumpnet/Efinity, all we need is a few games to go mainstream and become successful. As Six Dragon's should launch on Playstation sometime in 2022, other game developers could follow (guess what limited-supply crypto users will need to mint items?)
ATOM. The first time I made a review on Cosmos was back in Nov 2019 and since then ATOM has made an impressive 9x. And I`m sure more to come. One of the biggest fundamental developments supporting the bullish mood towards ATOM is news about Cosmos-based DEX Osmosis raising $21M in a token sale from several key VCs.
Another interesting update is eToro, making ATOM available for trading to Australian users, and therefore to drive up its trading volume.
In addition, CoolWallet Pro has announced a staking option for its users holding ATOM tokens. Tendermint, the software development company behind Cosmos, and the ICF, have partnered with Forte, an organization building a blockchain platform for video games. With almost 3B gamers worldwide and immense interest surrounding NFTs, it will help propel Cosmos to a broader audience and solidify its place as a leading blockchain ecosystem.
And Q4 is expected to be exciting for Cosmos too. Gravity Bridge is to be launched soon, meaning new liquidity for ATOM on new DEXes with good rewards. Evmos, a new Cosmos hub, is in the works and set to launch by the end of this year. Also, Cosmos has announced the launch of a new blockchain Sagan, and while not much is known about it, it points to a new use case for ATOM token. As we see, there is tremendous activity in this ecosystem, all of which can bring more value to the ATOM asset over the coming months.
Okay so what do we have in the end?
I’m betting on BTC growth in the short term while still sticking to my long-term portfolio. Now it consists of the following coins: ETH, LUNA, DOT, COSMOS, ENJ, 1INCH, and DYDX.
These are the greatest and most fundamentally valuable coins I’m seeing at the moment. How much to allocate to each of these coins everybody should decide on their own.
I’ll be buying more of each once BTC reaches 55-60 domination levels, till then I’ll be hunting for great deals in Halvings Capital and be ready to sell projects once they reach exchanges, which is around 2-3 months from now. Some of them I will hold for a longer term.
Please keep in mind that, everything might change pretty quickly and I think you agree with me that one month scope is too distant for crypto. That being said, if you’d like to stick to what I’m doing on a daily basis, I suggest you to follow me on Twitter, as this is the easiest way for me to keep communication and update you quickly.
As usual, don’t follow my advice blindly, sometimes I make mistakes and may overlook something.
Also please don’t forget to share my analysis with your friends ASAP because it is very time-sensitive.
Good luck to you sirs and madams, may the Morevember vibes be with you.