Bitcoin Dominance Elephant/Mammoth in the room
The Bitcoin dominance has been doing something seemingly unnatural with the limited information available to us. I find that a lot of people are sleeping on this or just unaware.
First off, this chart is very busy. I don't normally make charts with this many indicators but there is a lot of confliction in the information and I only want to make a single chart of this to follow on. There is are even a few indicators I have deleted for sanities sake.
Secondly, the elephant is that we have basically gone through a bear market in a range with the dominance. What we have known or at least what we think we knew is that in bear markets the dominance of bitcoin goes up. That so far has proven to be false or is it that the bear market isn't over yet? I will explain all of this with my opinion at the bottom with a third option.
THE INDICATORS
On the Monthly chart
50 month MA
CM_Ultimate_MA_MTF
Volume
Down below, from top to bottom
RSI
Vortex (VI)
Traders Dynamic Indicator (TDIGM)
Historical Volatility (HV)
Bitcoin Dominance Oscillator (BTCD_O)
Sentiment Oscillator (ASO)
So, lets start from the top
The CM Ultimate has turned green, the only other time that's happened on this chart has shown an upward dominance move for Bitcoin. The RSI is climbing, the blue vortex has crossed above the pink line that all show a support for this upward dominance move. The sentiment oscillator has closed the gap (Blue vs pink) and looks to make across that would add to the upward move, but, has not crossed as of yet (possibly this month it may).
The conflict or size of the move
The last time dominance went up it was met with very heavy resistance the 50 month MA (yellow line), it finally did break through but did not hold for even one month and broke back down again. This shows us the 50 month is very very strong resistance for now. The question is, will it go above this time around? This is what remains to be seen and what will follow here.
The volatility and traders dynamic could be pointing at small move. We can clearly see the volatility going down as the move is going up. The TDI has been saying a move is coming and has been made but it might already be over, or there is isn't much left in the move. So, it could go to the 50 month and get rejected from there. Why? We can also see the TDI's range is narrowing which coincides with the volatility. Also, along with all this the RSI is showing hidden bearish divergence for 4 years now, that started in 2015, but has it played out fully yet? Again that remains to be seen.
I have zoomed in on the volatility so it can be clearly seen but what is being missed is the giant wedge that it is in. This wedge does eventually end in about 2 years, so it's still aways away.
What I think and what my analysis is.
First off, it's not to be taken as advice.
I think BTC dominance is going up for now. I also think it gets rejected by the 50 month and goes back down for an alt-season and could make a double bottom and hit the lows of 2018 @ 35% or possible even slightly lower for a very short time. It then would go back up substantially.
Keep in mind this could take 2 to 3 years to play out in full or even longer.
The keys in all of this are the 50 month, the Volatility and the volume. We can also see the volume is in a downward trend. A big volume spike could bean early sign of a trend reversal too. Once all this plays out and if the dominance was to go back up the volatility would have to break out of the wedge in a fairly violent way, just as it did when it broke down in 2017/18.
The other option is it just gets more and more stable and less volatile as time goes on and keeps following this trend. I don't think this is likely as a permanent fixture though.
Another hidden key here could be Ethereum. ETH has also closed the gap on BTC during this bear market, so it's another thing I'm looking at and could also be used as an indicator to all this data. I have linked a chart to this analysis in this one called "Is Ethereum going to dethrone the king". Also, I have included is an altcoin lengthening cycles analysis based on XRP.
I do suggest you replicate this chart in multiple ways by breaking down the indicators for cleanliness sake and even adding in the ones I removed listed down bellow.
Removed but still relevant Indicators
Stochastic RSI
Bollinger Bands
MACD
Thank you for looking and please feel free to let me know what you think in the comment section down below.
Stay Blessed
WeAreSat0shi
First off, this chart is very busy. I don't normally make charts with this many indicators but there is a lot of confliction in the information and I only want to make a single chart of this to follow on. There is are even a few indicators I have deleted for sanities sake.
Secondly, the elephant is that we have basically gone through a bear market in a range with the dominance. What we have known or at least what we think we knew is that in bear markets the dominance of bitcoin goes up. That so far has proven to be false or is it that the bear market isn't over yet? I will explain all of this with my opinion at the bottom with a third option.
THE INDICATORS
On the Monthly chart
50 month MA
CM_Ultimate_MA_MTF
Volume
Down below, from top to bottom
RSI
Vortex (VI)
Traders Dynamic Indicator (TDIGM)
Historical Volatility (HV)
Bitcoin Dominance Oscillator (BTCD_O)
Sentiment Oscillator (ASO)
So, lets start from the top
The CM Ultimate has turned green, the only other time that's happened on this chart has shown an upward dominance move for Bitcoin. The RSI is climbing, the blue vortex has crossed above the pink line that all show a support for this upward dominance move. The sentiment oscillator has closed the gap (Blue vs pink) and looks to make across that would add to the upward move, but, has not crossed as of yet (possibly this month it may).
The conflict or size of the move
The last time dominance went up it was met with very heavy resistance the 50 month MA (yellow line), it finally did break through but did not hold for even one month and broke back down again. This shows us the 50 month is very very strong resistance for now. The question is, will it go above this time around? This is what remains to be seen and what will follow here.
The volatility and traders dynamic could be pointing at small move. We can clearly see the volatility going down as the move is going up. The TDI has been saying a move is coming and has been made but it might already be over, or there is isn't much left in the move. So, it could go to the 50 month and get rejected from there. Why? We can also see the TDI's range is narrowing which coincides with the volatility. Also, along with all this the RSI is showing hidden bearish divergence for 4 years now, that started in 2015, but has it played out fully yet? Again that remains to be seen.
I have zoomed in on the volatility so it can be clearly seen but what is being missed is the giant wedge that it is in. This wedge does eventually end in about 2 years, so it's still aways away.
What I think and what my analysis is.
First off, it's not to be taken as advice.
I think BTC dominance is going up for now. I also think it gets rejected by the 50 month and goes back down for an alt-season and could make a double bottom and hit the lows of 2018 @ 35% or possible even slightly lower for a very short time. It then would go back up substantially.
Keep in mind this could take 2 to 3 years to play out in full or even longer.
The keys in all of this are the 50 month, the Volatility and the volume. We can also see the volume is in a downward trend. A big volume spike could bean early sign of a trend reversal too. Once all this plays out and if the dominance was to go back up the volatility would have to break out of the wedge in a fairly violent way, just as it did when it broke down in 2017/18.
The other option is it just gets more and more stable and less volatile as time goes on and keeps following this trend. I don't think this is likely as a permanent fixture though.
Another hidden key here could be Ethereum. ETH has also closed the gap on BTC during this bear market, so it's another thing I'm looking at and could also be used as an indicator to all this data. I have linked a chart to this analysis in this one called "Is Ethereum going to dethrone the king". Also, I have included is an altcoin lengthening cycles analysis based on XRP.
I do suggest you replicate this chart in multiple ways by breaking down the indicators for cleanliness sake and even adding in the ones I removed listed down bellow.
Removed but still relevant Indicators
Stochastic RSI
Bollinger Bands
MACD
Thank you for looking and please feel free to let me know what you think in the comment section down below.
Stay Blessed
WeAreSat0shi
Comment:
BTC Dominance just broke out above resistance. First lets see if it can close the week above and then the month.
Comment:
On the weekly chart the BTC dominance broke above the resistance level and is possibly trying to make it support this week. Closing this week above this 48% level could lead to a higher eventual move.
tiktok.com/@wearesat0sh1
