Ascending triangle retest to confirm ALT Season
Hi all,
Main TA Points;
***
1. At order block resistance.
2. Incoming resistance at 61.8 FIB.
3. Histogram showing weak strength of trend.
4. Has barely cleared Ichimoku.
5. BTC price nearing psychological resistance of 50K.
6. Seems to be retest of ascending triangle to seek confirmation.
7. Possible 5 month fractal in play.
8. Doji forming at the moment.
***
Talking Points;
***
Bitcoin has had a huge 5 months as we seem to be making new ATH after new ATH. However a consolidation does seem to be on the cards here from a technical analysis perspective.
From a fractals point of view you can see for the last 3 years Bitcoins upswings have lasted for 5 months before witnessing consolidation. We do still have 3 weeks of January left so there could still be plenty of upside before any correction occurs. There certainly does seem to be some consistency with BTCs swings.
From a patterns perspective we seem to have respected the ascending triangle for the same 3 year period. We broke to the downside in June last year where plenty of ALTs had a great run, then we have gone back up for the retest. Standard low risk confirmation trading would suggest we enter a short here for a low risk vanilla style trade.
Lastly I believe the 50K psychological barrier will be to tough to break in the first instance and we will witness the first consolidation in this run.
Interestingly consolidation could last until JUL of this year, even to NOV/DEC of 2022. What this means for ALT coins remains to be seen.
***
Estimates;
***
In line with my other analysis on BTC/USDT and TOTAL2, there are good reasons to believe we will not break 50K in the first attempt. Its important to mention however, that with the US federal reserve printing another 3 trillion dollars, simply from an inflationary perspective we could see Bitcoin continue to rise astronomically. In this scenario however we would have to assume that ALT coins too have had the same inflationary impact, and BTC.D analysis should remain consistent with the above analysis and take precedent over the BTC/USDT analysis. In this case both BTC/USDT and TOTAL2 would rise with the above dominance analysis remaining true.
In the event of a consolidation at 50K, I would expect first BTC.D target to be at 23.6% fib (50% dominance) to confirm the break of uptrend. You will notice there are two pathway options displayed, option one where we hit 23.6% fib (50% dominance) then retest 38.2% fib (60%) dominance, before the run down to 0% fib (35%) dominance).
Option 2 is a strong run down to 0% (35%) dominance. I have copied the decline angle from 2017-2018 of -68 degrees. It would give us a theoretical bottom in July of this year.
In other words an ALT season for the next 5-6 months.
Below are included my TOTAL2 analysis and BTC/USDT analysis for reference.
Good luck,
***
BTC/USDT
TOTAL2
***
Any trading advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the information provided you should consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should seek professional personal financial advice before making any financial or investment decisions.
All investment and trade decisions, no matter how well investigated, involve risk.
***
Main TA Points;
***
1. At order block resistance.
2. Incoming resistance at 61.8 FIB.
3. Histogram showing weak strength of trend.
4. Has barely cleared Ichimoku.
5. BTC price nearing psychological resistance of 50K.
6. Seems to be retest of ascending triangle to seek confirmation.
7. Possible 5 month fractal in play.
8. Doji forming at the moment.
***
Talking Points;
***
Bitcoin has had a huge 5 months as we seem to be making new ATH after new ATH. However a consolidation does seem to be on the cards here from a technical analysis perspective.
From a fractals point of view you can see for the last 3 years Bitcoins upswings have lasted for 5 months before witnessing consolidation. We do still have 3 weeks of January left so there could still be plenty of upside before any correction occurs. There certainly does seem to be some consistency with BTCs swings.
From a patterns perspective we seem to have respected the ascending triangle for the same 3 year period. We broke to the downside in June last year where plenty of ALTs had a great run, then we have gone back up for the retest. Standard low risk confirmation trading would suggest we enter a short here for a low risk vanilla style trade.
Lastly I believe the 50K psychological barrier will be to tough to break in the first instance and we will witness the first consolidation in this run.
Interestingly consolidation could last until JUL of this year, even to NOV/DEC of 2022. What this means for ALT coins remains to be seen.
***
Estimates;
***
In line with my other analysis on BTC/USDT and TOTAL2, there are good reasons to believe we will not break 50K in the first attempt. Its important to mention however, that with the US federal reserve printing another 3 trillion dollars, simply from an inflationary perspective we could see Bitcoin continue to rise astronomically. In this scenario however we would have to assume that ALT coins too have had the same inflationary impact, and BTC.D analysis should remain consistent with the above analysis and take precedent over the BTC/USDT analysis. In this case both BTC/USDT and TOTAL2 would rise with the above dominance analysis remaining true.
In the event of a consolidation at 50K, I would expect first BTC.D target to be at 23.6% fib (50% dominance) to confirm the break of uptrend. You will notice there are two pathway options displayed, option one where we hit 23.6% fib (50% dominance) then retest 38.2% fib (60%) dominance, before the run down to 0% fib (35%) dominance).
Option 2 is a strong run down to 0% (35%) dominance. I have copied the decline angle from 2017-2018 of -68 degrees. It would give us a theoretical bottom in July of this year.
In other words an ALT season for the next 5-6 months.
Below are included my TOTAL2 analysis and BTC/USDT analysis for reference.
Good luck,
***
BTC/USDT
TOTAL2
***
Any trading advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the information provided you should consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should seek professional personal financial advice before making any financial or investment decisions.
All investment and trade decisions, no matter how well investigated, involve risk.
***
