BNTX
BTNX share is overvalued, things to note as labelled as high growth share and in the industry of breakthrough medical technology, contains high returns if succeed, but overall based on current analysis, I would recommend to ‘hold’ rating, as risk of failure is too high. Optimism may spark share price ahead to grow to a cap of $105, but not a good price to enter.
The rule for BioNTech investing is to enter early when prices are low and absorb full risk of failure from low ground. Instead of chasing optimism and opportunity.
For value investors a fair price to enter is 3.08 PEG in industry and expected earnings growth average in 5 year 6.81. Thereby price range $39-86 is within rationale price bound.
$57 and below would ideally be a fair entry. Based price of $19.5.
Fund management companies added 10% for july of total share holdings , while institution are reducing 17% of their holding View of top 20 companies buying and selling
Institutions : +514,841 shares vs -2,506,063 shares
Funds : +3,244,521 shares vs -1,318,947 share
Company top management team contractual term is due in 2022 . which is something to take note as currently their share options have made them wealthy, if there company successfully approved covid vaccine , they will be able to retire comfortably, if they fail, all they have to do is issue more debt securities to sustain their position and clock out 10x on their share options, Remuneration of Supervisory Board Members have 3.45x more from year 2018 to 2019. Which is absurd. The Management Board received aggregate remuneration, for the CEO alone is 10.8x more. Major private shareholders of company have bought in and hold at 15-19$/share
Biontech revenue is unstable, cost of sales has been seen rising even though revenue dipped. This shows the inefficiency of handling cost. Operating losses have been building up for the past few years, in this pace, funds might run out earlier than their expected 2 years.
Earning per share has been negative for the past 4 years , and have no signs of improvements, only signs of degradation. Biontech funds their research on issuance of additional shares as we can see the past activity of more diluted shares. Cash outflows have more than tripled due to competing for the coronavirus vaccine.Significant amount of deferred tax assets has been amounted due to operating losses that have not been realized. Valuation allowance has been adjusted to offset these assets.
Due to high uncertainty of the length of time and activities associated with discovery and development of our product candidates, companies are unable to estimate the actual funds the company will require for development, marketing and commercialization activities. Financing through debt equity /government funding /private equity are what they have just achieved, but there is still a high level of uncertainty whether the funds on hand is enough, competitors have successfully raised more funds then biontech.
Due to company limited resources, they may not be able to effectively manage this simultaneous execution and the expansion of our operations or recruit and train additional qualified personnel. This may result in weaknesses in our infrastructure, give rise to operational mistakes, legal or regulatory compliance failures, loss of business opportunities, loss of employees and reduced productivity among remaining employees.
The pandemic has also affected business operations and slowed down r&d efforts.
manufacturing, could also be disrupted due to the potential of the impact of staff absences as a result of self-isolation procedures or extended illness.
Company have limited experience in filing and supporting the applications necessary to gain marketing approvals and may need to rely on third-party contract research organizations, or CROs, regulatory consultants or collaborators to assist them in this process.
No mRNA immunotherapy has been approved, and none may ever be approved. mRNA drug development has substantial clinical development and regulatory risks due to the novel and unprecedented nature of this new category of therapeutics.
Delay or failure to obtain, or unexpected costs in obtaining, the regulatory approval necessary to bring a potential product to market could decrease company ability to generate sufficient product sales revenue to maintain our business.US election favors of joe biden could stop trump from overriding FDA approvals SOP which is supposed to take 4 years. Thus has a negative impact on vaccine production. Significant competition in an environment of rapid technological and scientific change, and company failure to effectively compete would prevent them from achieving significant market penetration. Most of their competitors have significantly greater resources than they do and they may not be able to compete successfully.
Company currently has no marketing and sales organization and as a company, and has no experience in marketing pharmaceutical products.The patent position of biopharmaceutical companies generally is highly uncertain, and has been the subject of much litigation in recent years thus hindering or removing company ability to limit third parties from making, using or selling products or technologies that are similar or identical Company has time and time again diluted shareholder equity, and therefore has gone in the route of forming mergers to maintain share prices.
Company will have a substantial amount of goodwill and other intangible assets resulting from the Merger. At least annually, or whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate a potential impairment in the carrying value, therefore the balance sheet of the company may due to have significant changes in coming times.
material weakness in company internal control over financial reporting and may identify additional material weaknesses in the future that may cause them to fail to meet their reporting obligations or result in material misstatements in our financial statements. If company fail to remediate our material weakness, they may not be able to report their financial results accurately.
A significant portion of our total outstanding ordinary shares will be restricted from immediate resale but may be sold in the near future. The large number of shares eligible for sale could cause the market price to drop significantly, even if business is performing well. I don't foresee company will pay dividends as german tax laws will tax them twice.
Company expects to commit approximately an additional €250 million through 2023, on PPE.
Revenue on clinical and technology platforms have not improved while expenses in these areas have soared. Company does perform well in the manufacturing area which is their strength and therefore should focus in that area alone and not incurred higher expenses in an area not of their forte.
Total Equity per share = $12.66
The companies are in global race with Moderna, AstraZeneca and others to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus, which has claimed over 803+ thousand lives globally. The companies said they expect to start a large trial with up to 30,000 participants as soon as later this month, upon regulatory approval.
They also expect to make up to 100 million doses by the end of this year and potentially more than 1.2 billion doses by 2021-end, if the vaccine is successful.
The science and business of biotechnology is complex and uncertain, and trying to figure out biotech companies' prospects for success is no easy task. Because many ventures are in the development stage, they often confound traditional financial analysis: With little or no cash flow, earnings or even revenues, putting numbers on a firm.
Therefore this analysis relies heavily on qualitative analysis rather than quantitative, financial methods of valuation.
Naturally, a biotech company's product portfolio and research pipeline are the lifeblood of its success.
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EPS downwards revision for the past 3x in a row.
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28/8/2020 BNTX has Dipped to $65
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Today BNTX dipped to $58, Entry point soon