Congratulations to everyone on the Bitcoin Halving! We recently observed an impulsive move to the 10k region and everyone lost their minds. I haven't seen such irrational euphoria during which every bearish post is downvoted into oblivion for a long time. Most permanently biased YouTube channels declared a confirmed breakout out of the downwards sloping resistance line and advised their followers to buy as much bitcoin as possible. However, many of us managed to stay rational and exit their long positions for a good profit. You see, we did manage to break out of the resistance line based on daily closes but there are several descending resistance lines and they are all valid. The bulls did not manage to break the descending resistance lines based on absolute highs or weekly closes. This was not the area where bitcoin should have faltered. The price should have crushed all of these resistance lines without creating bearish and hidden bearish divergences. In my previous posts I expected a scam wick to the 9k region but BTC overperformed slightly and the weekly scam wick went all the way up to 10k.
I first started entering low leverage shorts in the mid 9k region and added to them close to the 10k region and a large crash followed after a bearish retest of our long term support line and the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement line. However, a large CME gap was formed during the weekend so BTC may or may not move back up to the 9.8k region to fill that gap. Still, it is irrelevant in the big picture if we do not manage to surge past 10.5k and create a higher high. Personally, I am holding long term low leverage swing shorts because there should be a big move to the downside coming, even if the bottom is in. I lean more bearish than bullish until we see a clear higher low formed in the macro picture.
See you in a future post!
I first started entering low leverage shorts in the mid 9k region and added to them close to the 10k region and a large crash followed after a bearish retest of our long term support line and the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement line. However, a large CME gap was formed during the weekend so BTC may or may not move back up to the 9.8k region to fill that gap. Still, it is irrelevant in the big picture if we do not manage to surge past 10.5k and create a higher high. Personally, I am holding long term low leverage swing shorts because there should be a big move to the downside coming, even if the bottom is in. I lean more bearish than bullish until we see a clear higher low formed in the macro picture.
See you in a future post!
Comment:
Sorry for the overlapping text in the chart. It looked very different when I was editing it. You can use your left mouse button to zoom in and see things more clearly. :)